Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z UKIE meteogram at DC shows 20mm QPF... all snow. 850s are between -2 and -4 and 2mT are right at 32 degrees for majority That is really impressive. I'm 100% sure the euro doesn't go backwards from 12z. Matt needs to do pbp. He has SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That is really impressive. I'm 100% sure the euro doesn't go backwards from 12z. Matt needs to do pbp. He has SV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I know it's not easy to ignore the something can still go wrong thought loop but.... this setup is actually a high probability of going right. There's nothing complicated. The southern stream river of precip already exists. We just have to wait until the hose is pointed at us. In 24 hours precip will be knocking on the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 29 minutes ago, Ji said: as we wait on the euro...who had Alvin Kamara tonight in Fantasy....yikes I had Ingram II and the other guy that I need to win has Kamara... why couldn't they produce like last week. but on the upside... I did pick Atlanta to win in my pickem league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Point and Click is up to 80% on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Can def. see improvements on the EURO thru 24 hours with the southern vort and more ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I want Bob Chill just to say everything is alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Saw a preview and I think this is going to be a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Everything is alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Everything is alright Details Bob Details!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 If you want to take the EURO snow map as is... 2" line is just east of the I-81 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 We need a ukmet type solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 .3 line out by FDK. Most everyone is .3-.4+. .50 line just outside the beltway to the SE. Notable jump west with extent. DCA very close to .50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Are we done with the corrections? Love this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 So WSW for DC south and WWA for Northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Are you frackin' kiddin' me? .6 over Eastern Prince William? That cant be right, its gotta be an error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Solid run. Noticeably colder with solid QPF. Colder than the GFS. The King retakes the throne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. Run looked plenty good to me. Temps drop during the day and we get good qpf in the area. Just about everyone comes away with something. It wasnt a small shift with the euro. Wouldn't suprise me if a couple tenths get tacked on at 12z. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Most of our area gets more precip than most of SNE. Up and down the coast it's a strangely uniform precip shield. Can't say I've seen many similar panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Midnight or there abouts Roger. Taking a cat nap again. Love that cat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I think it was a good idea after all, that they brined those roads so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Solid run. Noticeably colder with solid QPF. Colder than the GFS. The King retakes the throne. BS. Euro sucked on this. No 2 ways abiut it in my mind. Too late to the party imho. EDIT: I'm not trying to be confrontational, so BS could be replaced with vehemently disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Whhhhaaaa Quote .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season seems inevitable late tonight into Saturday for much of the area. This is a significant change from the most likely scenario from 24 hours ago. What changed is 1) the southern stream surface low ejecting off the southeast U.S. coast appears a little slower and stronger, allowing the northern stream upper trough to catch up and interact/partially phase with it as it passes; and 2) the approaching northern stream trough takes on a neutral (as opposed to positive) tilt, placing the area more squarely in the favorable right entrance region of an amplifying upper jet (quite strong, 200-knot max at 250 mb Friday night over northern New England). Therefore, what was a lower (but non- zero) probability solution this time yesterday now appears to be the most likely scenario. Right entrance region jet dynamics coupled with mid-level PVA and frontogenesis would suggest some banded snow is possible. Snowfall events driven by strong jet dynamics tend to overperform, so have upped QPF/snowfall amounts, with 2-4" for the I-95 corridor, and measurable back to the I-81 corridor. This is consistent with the latest GFS/Euro trends as well as ensembles which are coming into better agreement. But this is still subject to change. A sharp cutoff on the northwest edge of the precipitation is possible, with locally higher amounts likely in any banded precipitation (most likely east of the Blue Ridge). Boundary layer temperatures may be a couple degrees above freezing through much of the event, but strong dynamics likely overcome this. Also, the sun angle is at about its lowest and least impactful point of the year, so even though most snow will fall during the daytime hours Saturday, it should still accumulate fairly well. If this scenario remains consistent for another model cycle, then winter weather headlines will be warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Whhhhaaaa I'm kind of surprised to see them this bullish too, but setup looks great. Jebwalks on Saturday are going to be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I'm kind of surprised to see them this bullish too, but setup looks great. Jebwalks on Saturday are going to be sweet. So used to watching the models go south when it comes to snow this was a pleasant surprise. Just started looking over things and so far i like what i am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: So used to watching the models go south when it comes to snow this was a pleasant surprise. Just started looking over things and so far i like what i am seeing. Hard not be happy about this one. Still want to see the 12z suite to confirm any final predicted totals, but thinking a wide spread 1-4" across the Western shores of the bay. I like 3-6" with local 8" between Easton over to SBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I am going to have my work cut out for me shoveling snow, neighbors will be calling lmao. I'll never forget one of my neighbors in GB 16, asking me to show her what Jebman Standards are. She had three vehicles. Geeze, How many ppl read this board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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