HoarfrostHubb Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Should be a nice event for many of you in that region. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 At 30, lp is further south on the coast and precip shield is slightly more nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 This is gunna be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Gfs looks excellent. Should make our western brethren happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 This is going to be a great run from the 00z GFS for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The guy in Winchester is going to be happy with this run. Good to see us all get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Heavier precip down south of us early Saturday morning is primed to push our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The trend continues. at 36 precipitation shield is more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 At 36, lp is slightly south of 18 z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 For the experts in this thread, how close is this to phasing? I understand the chances of it are low, but ideally what would you want to see happen for a phase to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Thru 42 hrs and still sno https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120800&fh=42&xpos=0&ypos=82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Everything broke in the right direction and again it strated right at the beginning. Lol. This run has to be top end. Gotta stay up for euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Come on @Bob Chill... you know you want to post that gif face based off this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Kleimax said: BOOOOM Looks like a 0.1" increase in precipitation since 18z?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: Looks like a 0.1" increase in precipitation since 18z?... Yeah, but it's farther West. Precip gradient wont be as smooth as seen, so the farther West, the bigger chance the gradient has to give us more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: Looks like a 0.1" increase in precipitation since 18z?... But if you look at the overall run, it is northwest of the 18z and brings the even bigger stuff closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 .5 line a little further west this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 wide 3-4" qpf out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 That’s a lot of QPF. Almost 0.5 for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS now vs 24 hours ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I am going to have to make that quick trip to the store before this made known to the public. Going to be ugly at the grocery store to rival black Friday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: For the experts in this thread, how close is this to phasing? I understand the chances of it are low, but ideally what would you want to see happen for a phase to occur? Not at all and we don't want it to. The northern stream energy is always north of us and a phase would steal from the southern stream and we risk getting stuck in no man's land. The two features are completely separate with subsidence separating them. That's why you see a dry slot between the ns and ss. You always want to be north of a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, KingJWx said: GFS now vs 24 hours ago: In my few years here, easily the biggest shift I have ever seen break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Gottta be 2inches plus for the 95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: That’s a lot of QPF. Almost 0.5 for DC Always good to see you post and indeed it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 And we wouldn’t want it too far NW or mixing issues perhaps ...not another tick but several ticks..this is just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Somebody has to be first with a sat pic. That WV is impressive. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: In my few years here, easily the biggest shift I have ever seen break our way. Whether we get a good or a bad trend in the short range, it's always due to the southern stream being less progressive than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 What's new about this run and great about it is the 0.4" QPF line. It makes it out to the BR and about 50 miles east of the I-81 corridor. There's even an area of 0.5+ QPF out by Luray -- which I guess is mountains enhanced? Even EZF is 0.50+ QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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