Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Gonna be an all nighter...I took leave for tomorrow.. If only I could do the same. Got a big test tomorrow in Bio and I can't focus. Already had a few sick days this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 12 and 18Z model trends now show a more amplified sfc low pres system off the mid-Atl coast Fri night through Sat. This results in precip shield reaching farther NW into the cold air Fri night and Sat with latest Euro and GFS showing measurable precip as far west as the Blue Ridge mtns. Given these trends and better agreement between GFS and Euro increased PoPs and QPF on the nw side bringing chance of snow to the Rt 15 corridor with 1-3" most likely across the Washington and Baltimore Metro areas into southern Maryland. With the gradient between no snowfall and accumulating snowfall directly overhead...this lowers the certainty in the forecast because any slight change in the track will have a significant impact on the forecast. Also...temperatures are marginal. In fact much of the time it snows it may be near or slightly above freezing. This means that most of the accumulation will be on grassy and elevated surfaces. However...a slushy coating of snow cannot be completely ruled out...especially with snow early Saturday morning and again early Saturday evening before it moves out. Drier air will move in overnight Saturday...but a few snow showers cannot be ruled out with the northern stream shortwave passing through. Most of the accumulating snow should remain near/west of the Allegheny Front. More importantly...any slushy or standing water will freeze Saturday night with temps dropping below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just happy to see the first storm still in play for our area. Even if I dont see a flake any y’all get car toppers or a pinch more to me we are still 1-0 for the season to use a phrase I sometimes see in NE forum....we take. GNight all. Hope your snow dreams come true. I’ll say a prayer for yas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: If only I could do the same. Got a big test tomorrow in Bio and I can't focus. Already had a few sick days this year I get the sense I am way older than you. Just a hunch. Why are you looking at weather models and not hitting on real ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Best part about being on the fringe, whatever we get is gravy Doesn't make the fringe good. Every forecast will be too high. Might as well start with the why didn't it accumulate write-up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 According to NWS, current temps: Springfield- 36 Gainesville- 32 Leesburg- 36 Washington, DC- 34 Ellicott City- 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Doesn't make the fringe good. Every forecast will be too high. Might as well start with the why didn't it accumulate write-up now. My expectation has been zero from the get go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 That pos Rgem looks real aggressive with this storm. Youzers, and only oit to 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: I get the sense I am way older than you. Just a hunch. Why are you looking at weather models and not hitting on real ones? First storm I got excited for was, are you ready for it? March 5th 2013 "storm" I watched the weather channel for almost every hour that whole week, and despite getting 2 slushy inches of snow, I wasn't disappointed. I then stopped paying attention to the weather through winter of 13/14 (meaning I missed every good part of it), and I've been fascinated in the weather ever since. Mainly winter weather though. Really only way I can explain why I love winter weather must be my early memories of the 09/10 winter. That and I love skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: First storm I got excited for was, are you ready for it? March 5th 2013 "storm" I watched the weather channel for almost every hour that whole week, and despite getting 2 slushy inches of snow, I wasn't disappointed. I then stopped paying attention to the weather through winter of 13/14 (meaning I missed every good part of it), and I've been fascinated in the weather ever since. Mainly winter weather though. Really only way I can explain why I love winter weather must be my early memories of the 09/10 winter. That and I love skiing. Good on you. The first storm I got excited about was blizzard of 78..I was a kid but hit me early...and here I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: RGEM looks good. Could you post the 18z run as a comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Damn..RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Could you post the 18z run as a comparison? Unfortunately that site only has the 18z run out to 36 hours today, probably because of whatever technical issues they were having. But here's 00z at 30 compared to 18z at 36. 18z at 36. 00z at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM drier than it's 18z run for just about everyone in our region according to tropical tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 0z 18z (Not quite done with precip at 48) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM Snowfall Through Hr 48 50 miles NW would be difference from 4" in DC to 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Rgem trimmed the nw extent and backed off a little with precip through the corridor. One thing I didn'k like with the meso's was double lows running coast. Makes it more complicated. Nam was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Maybe just yoda should do pbp for 0z....or Jebman..NAM was a debacle...include myself in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I think we're gonna see moderation on the OPs/short range models through 6z tomorrow, and then another slight trend NW 12z/18z just a feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Not quite sure how this will affect us in the long run... but 19 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Interestingly enough, it's overperforming in south Texas somewhat. 2-4" measurements across College Station. Should be an interesting Friday in the Deep South and see what they're observing upstream from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The biggest problem is there is no margin for error. 30 miles either way make a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Rgem trimmed the nw extent and backed off a little with precip through the corridor. One thing I didn'k like with the meso's was double lows running coast. Makes it more complicated. Nam was similar. So it was a dual low..jeez I should have seen that...thought the run was fooked up...still learn every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 0z GFS running. Should be studying, but what the heck, it's not every day we get a December snow event to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Man at 18 hoirs gfs is juiced and northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Not quite sure how this will affect us in the long run... but Radar showed a narrow band of yellows over/near College Station (always hard to predict where those bands set up). Not sure anything can be extrapolated long term from that. Here’s to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Man at 18 hoirs gfs is juiced and northwest I see that. Let's not jinx it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS further west with the SS but lower heights over NE. Should be about the same as 18z in our region.. Edit: Never mine the Further west SS won out and heights rebounded over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: So it was a dual low..jeez I should have seen that...thought the run was fooked up...still learn every day The area of low pressure off the coast is elongated with waves embedded. The jumping you see is just computer programming putting an L where the lowest pressure us. There are several waves but there isn't much pressure difference between them. Could be tricky for meso's to get that part right. Globals are the heavyweights until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good on you. The first storm I got excited about was blizzard of 78..I was a kid but hit me early...and here I am I became interested at a very young age and did a lot of reading from... omg... books. It was Hurricane Hazel that occurred well before I was born, but heard many stories about it from family that actually experienced it. But then the internet became available, and I have been a weather enthusiast ever since!! Totally an addictive hobby, that requires hours of model watching and just as much patience living in the MA!!! Sorry, can be moved to banter. I was just adding to the why I like weather conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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