olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, dmac said: https://twitter.com/CharlesRishard/status/938937034600742912 colleagues are in ATX for a conference this week and yep, its snowing. From just north of Austin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 FWIW HRRR goes out far enough to show precip in Virginia. Precip shield looks farther west than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: A hair? Few hairs..thick hairs like the kind you don't want to find in your soup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I think judging by our past storms, this will keep on trending NW. I remember the disappointment at realizing the March 2017 storm was gonna be as bad as it was, with us getting 2-4" of slop, and others 2-3 feet of snow. I wish I could archive more storms that went NW on guidance within 24 hours, but I'm already procrastinating, I should be studying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: I think judging by our past storms, this will keep on trending NW. I remember the disappointment at realizing the March 2017 storm was gonna be as bad as it was, with us getting 2-4" of slop, and others 2-3 feet of snow. I wish I could archive more storms that went NW on guidance within 24 hours, but I'm already procrastinating, I should be studying I just think we might have reached the max NW push. Only because that NS system is not gone. Now maybe a stronger LP could throw back more precip. But I didn't think we would get to this point so disregard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: I just think we might have reached the max NW push. Only because that NS system is not gone. Now maybe a stronger LP could throw back more precip. But I didn't think we would get to this point so disregard. Would be potential for NW push if the storm phased more. Could be possible, but I'd be very surprised if it phased fully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I think someone asked about sref. Mean snowfall at DCA up to 1.57, qpf up to almost .2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 0z NAM running now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Would be potential for NW push if the storm phased more. Could be possible, but I'd be very surprised if it phased fully It's not phasing as all. The NS vort is a kicker. There will be an area of subsidence between the 2 features and that's where the precip cutoff will be. The reason for the NW push is because the NS vort has shifted NW as well. If the NS vort speeds up there will be an east trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I just think we might have reached the max NW push. Only because that NS system is not gone. Now maybe a stronger LP could throw back more precip. But I didn't think we would get to this point so disregard. NAVGEM got you spooked huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's not phasing as all. The NS vort is a kicker. There will be an area of subsidence between the 2 features and that's where the precip cutoff will be. The reason for the NW push is because the NS vort has shifted NE as well. If the NS vort speeds up there will be an east trend. Oh, ok. I was referencing a PhillyWx.com twitter post regarding partial phasing. My bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The great thing about this system is that we don't have to wait for it to develop, then hope it spreads heavy precip over us. All we need is a subtle shift to hopefully continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Oh, ok. I was referencing a PhillyWx.com twitter post regarding partial phasing. My bad The features are interacting with each other but they aren't combining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 You can already see at 06hr that hr18-24 is going to be northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: NAVGEM got you spooked huh Yes that and this whole thing. I think an eastward jog is not off the table. Totally in but not without reservation. I do think Nokesville will do better than Leesburg this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Yeah. I can't wait until I'm 40 and models can hopefully be more reliable within 3 days. Kinda would take some of the magic out of forums like these though, since we'd know when most storms are gonna miss or give us rain. Blizzard of 2016 was amazing though I think we'd still be having the same conversations. We'd just be having them further in advance. "It seems like the next threat is always 10 15 days away..." "I know it's the 84 132 hour NAM, but..." For something more on-topic, I've started looking at temp profiles. 850s look good, but the GFS now has the 0C line running right along the coast. Another shift west and some areas east of the bay could find themselves on the wrong side of the line. Surface temps are probably the greatest risk, but you can see the storm pulling down cold air at the surface. As the track has shifted west and the coastal low has taken over from the Great Lakes low, surface winds along I95 have shifted from southerly to northerly. As a result, areas near the coast are predicted to be cooler at the surface than areas inland. You can see this clearly on the last 5 runs of the GFS. On Saturday afternoon, Salisbury could be colder than Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Already see slight westward difference between 00z NAM at hr 6 h5 and hr 12 on the 18z h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: You can already see at 06hr that hr18-24 is going to be northwest On the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Is the NAM still looking West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Is the NAM still looking West? Looks same to me at hr 16...but I could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 20+ pages since this morning on this "event" that wouldn't have scratched an itch in 09/10. God we're hopeless. Note I said "we" there... Caught a few glimpses of the dialog and shift in the track throughout the day as much as work would permit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Northern stream looks to be a tiny bit east of 18z...a little flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RDM said: 20+ pages since this morning on this "event" that wouldn't have scratched an itch in 09/10. God we're hopeless. Note I said "we" there... Caught a few glimpses of the dialog and shift in the track throughout the day as much as work would permit. 9/10 was a long time ago...I went from nothing to 3 inches in 12 hours...that isn't hopeless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Southern wave is also stronger this run...so that might cancel out...less positive tilt by 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, LP08 said: Southern wave is also stronger this run...so that might cancel out...less positive tilt by 27 Saw that too. It compensates for the precip shield being farther East as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 A buddy from work who moved to San Antonio, TX just posted some pictures and video on FB of snow coming down and he has a healthy dusting already! If this turns out to be a wiff for the Mid-Atlantic I will be pissed!! And in case you were wondering, he moved back to Texas because he doesn't like snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hard to see much diff thru 28. Small changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Looks like precip shield is gonna be farther East, but tilt is less positive, so maybe slightly further West, but tighter precip gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The money period on the Nam starts at 33 hoirs. That's when we'll be able to judge this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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