BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z RGEM decent... looks like .5 QPF total Decent? Underplaying it you are. I think I’m at 0.4 which if below freezing would be money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 when do SERFs come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM seems to run cold. It also only runs to 18z Saturday (48 hours), so there's like half the storm still left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 To my friend @clskinsfan, don’t get sucked into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM is a beauty. Looks like at least 6-10 more hours of snow past the 48 hours which is as far as it goes also stays below 32 degrees. Couple that with sun angle being almost at its lowest, and we've got a healthy December snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I'd say best case scenario (10% chance) is 5-8" for DC. 70% Chance of 2-4" IMO. Still room to change farther NW or SE in this time, but the shifts shouldn't be as dramatic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 LWX upped their snow maps to 1" just N/W of 95, <1" runs Frederick-Leesburg. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: LWX upped their snow maps to 1" just N/W of 95, <1" runs Frederick-Leesburg. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter They have no more than 1" anywhere in Virginia, while they have 4-6" in SE New England. They're probably skeptical of it being too warm to initially stick, or they're waiting for evening Euro again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM seems to run cold. It also only runs to 18z Saturday (48 hours), so there's like half the storm still left. Yes, I don't know how it performs in Canada, but south of the border, it tends to be too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: LWX upped their snow maps to 1" just N/W of 95, <1" runs Frederick-Leesburg. http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Woo a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Yes, I don't know how it performs in Canada, but south of the border, it tends to be too cold. Agree 100%. You cannot trust the RGEM's surface temps. It has totally blown it multiple times on marginal events. It sucked with last year's "big event". Ukie nailed that one. None of us wanted to believe it because it was the only model with above freezing 850's all the way to FDK but it was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just leaving this here since this was what all of us felt like was happening just 10 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Just leaving this here since this was what all of us felt like was happening just 10 hours ago. Not all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Not all of us. I thought my theory had failed, but it seems it was in fact correct here. Glad I had some optimistic people during those dark 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 34 minutes ago, Cobalt said: They have no more than 1" anywhere in Virginia, while they have 4-6" in SE New England. They're probably skeptical of it being too warm to initially stick, or they're waiting for evening Euro again I wouldn't go any higher until 0z runs for now. Smart move for them. Better to increase than decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I thought my theory had failed, but it seems it was in fact correct here. Glad I had some optimistic people during those dark 2 days Giving up outside of 24 hours prior to scheduled start time is a mistake around here. The models just aren't that good yet. Likewise, assuming anything is in the bag outside of 24 hours is probably a greater mistake. Once inside 24 hours, I can understand. Not that it still can't fail or come back, but it starts to become reasonable at that point to jump imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Giving up outside of 24 hours prior to scheduled start time is a mistake around here. The models just aren't that good yet. Likewise, assuming anything is in the bag outside of 24 hours is probably a greater mistake. Once inside 24 hours, I can understand. Not that it still can't fail or come back, but it starts to become reasonable at that point to jump. Yeah. I can't wait until I'm 40 and models can hopefully be more reliable within 3 days. Kinda would take some of the magic out of forums like these though, since we'd know when most storms are gonna miss or give us rain. Blizzard of 2016 was amazing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yeah. I can't wait until I'm 40 and models can hopefully be more reliable within 3 days. Kinda would take some of the magic out of forums like these though, since we'd know when most storms are gonna miss or give us rain. Blizzard of 2016 was amazing though Son, enjoy your youth, never do anything that requires you to hire a lawyer, and never wish your life away...not even for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I wouldn't go any higher until 0z runs for now. Smart move for them. Better to increase than decrease. Exactly. Coming out right now and saying 3-5" would create mass panic and a run on toilet paper and such. lol. If 0z holds serve they can put up some headlines in the wee hours. That's plenty of lead time. Plus it's happening on a weekend so there's no rush hour/schools to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Son, enjoy your youth, never do anything that requires you to hire a lawyer, and never wish your life away...not even for snow. Well said sir. Wishing to be 40 should only be said followed by “again”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Son, enjoy your youth, never do anything that requires you to hire a lawyer, and never wish your life away. Thank you for the advice. I wasn't wishing to be older just to be older, I was wishing to be older for the progression of accuracy of weather guidance. I very much appreciate the advice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Thank you for the advice. I wasn't wishing to be older just to be older, I was wishing to be older for the progression of accuracy of weather guidance. I very much appreciate the advice though Laser precision at long leads would completely destroy this hobby. Luckily I'll be dead long before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Navgem ticked a hair east at 18z. I know, it's the navgem, but it discontinues a western trend. Hopefully not a harbinger of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Navgem ticked a hair east at 18z. I know, it's the navgem, but it discontinues a western trend. Hopefully not a harbinger of things to come. Seems pretty similar to 18z GFS in terms of how far West the precip gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 32 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I thought my theory had failed, but it seems it was in fact correct here. Glad I had some optimistic people during those dark 2 days You're spiking the football awfully early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Point and click says Snow likely (70%) with total accum at 1.5”. Good forecast based on current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Seems pretty similar to 18z GFS in terms of how far West the precip gets LP is weaker by 2mb..placement looks similar to me...drier though...hair east is acceptable analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmac Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 https://twitter.com/CharlesRishard/status/938937034600742912 colleagues are in ATX for a conference this week and yep, its snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmac said: https://twitter.com/CharlesRishard/status/938937034600742912 colleagues are in ATX for a conference this week and yep, its snowing. Nice! Just saw a video out of College Station - snow sticking and apparently “over performing” there per the met in the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 A hair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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