Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The thing going for us is start time in the dead of night. If onset was say 11am or so @ 34 degrees it changes things. Pretty nice group of factors working in our favor for early Dec honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: Although TT just updated their algorithm so interested to see how it verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I appreciate people's caution with the surface temps and how much snow could accumulate. But if temps are actually 33-34, I'm not too worried as vertical profiles show that only the surface is above freezing. Well, I'm not too worried for everyone not sitting at DCA. Surface temps are a concern, but SnowTV in early December would be excellent. I also keep in mind my climo which stands at about an inch of snow for all of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Mmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Meh, looks like my old english tests after the teacher graded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Jebman said: Surface temps are a concern, but SnowTV in early December would be excellent. I also keep in mind my climo which stands at about an inch of snow for all of December. SnowTV is a win around Fredericksburg....cautiously optimistic for a couple inches. The trends have been great, can’t believe close to 0.5”qpf possible down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Good to know. That sounding posted earlier was pretty nice and was pretty much all I needed to see. Either way, my bar is low so if this trend continues I'm likely to be happy. Yeah, still think there is time for improvement. There's probably a ceiling, but not sure we're there quite yet. I would guess that .5" running I95 is probably top end? EPS mean @ .25+ for DCA was telling. I'm sure there were some fat totals mixed among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Starting to think I might even have a chance up here. What, not fringed? Or pummeled? Seriously though, have to like the trends area-wide. It's looking likely we'll at least get on the board, something we haven't done in December since ??? Some may get their December climo with this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I appreciate people's caution with the surface temps and how much snow could accumulate. But if temps are actually 33-34, I'm not too worried as vertical profiles show that only the surface is above freezing. Well, I'm not too worried for everyone not sitting at DCA. Yeah I cant find anything even close to 0c through the column on the GFS. SBY flirts with it briefly at 850 mb. GFS actually shows temps over here and to my SE(where the heavier snow is forecast) right at 31-32 during the height. I suppose urban areas could have trouble accumulating if/when precip is lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: 8 or 9 get the .5" line to DC It was a wholesale flip between runs too. Something we really don't see very often. I don't expect any more big jumps from here but that's just a guess. By 12z tomorrow we should be fairly locked in across the board except for the outer edge. That will prob overperform like always. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Oooo...that's nice. Especially the fairly deep DGZ coupled with some upward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I cant find anything even close to 0c through the column on the GFS. SBY flirts with it briefly at 850 mb. GFS actually shows temps over here and to my SE(where the heavier snow is forecast) right at 31-32 during the height. I suppose urban areas could have trouble accumulating if/when precip is lighter. I don't ever believe DCA will accumulate until it's happening, but I feel good for the rest of us with that skew-T and the sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I would guess that .5" running I95 is probably top end? EPS mean @ .25+ for DCA was telling. I'm sure there were some fat totals mixed among the members. 12/5/09 has been brought up as a temperature analog. But, as far as precip goes, I'm thinking that's a pretty decent top-end comparison-- 0.4" liquid Northern Carroll County to 0.8" in central Prince Georges County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 By the way, if this verifies as modeled now, that means there will have been a stripe of snow from the southernmost TX/Mexico border all the way to the northernmost ME/Canada border. Brownsville to Caribou. That's pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, gymengineer said: 12/5/09 has been brought up as a temperature analog. But, as far as precip goes, I'm thinking that's a pretty decent top-end comparison-- 0.4" liquid Northern Carroll County to 0.8" in central Prince Georges County. I loved that event. I was working in Mt Airy. I watched snow totals decrease the entire drive back to Rockville. I can't remember what we got at our office but it was def close to 6" if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 FWIW, 12z Panasonic Ensemble Mean at 66 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Oooo...that's nice. Especially the fairly deep DGZ coupled with some upward motion. Could you explain this a little? Does this mean that there is good dendritic growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z Panasonic Ensemble Mean at 66 hrs Could you post 6z for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Could you post 6z for comparison? There is no 6z of the Panasonic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Could you post 6z for comparison? Panasonic isn't run at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, yoda said: There is no 6z of the Panasonic Ah, rookie mistake on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Updated snow map for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 mappy 27,243 posts Location:21120 ID: 12 Posted February 25, 2015 · Report post expecting a pity dusting up my way. enjoy southerners! Like this Some things never change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVAman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I just had to join this message board to say hello to you fine gents, I've been watching this thread since the start. I live in Richmond, the local mets are saying the opposite of everything the models are leaning towards. If any of you are familiar with DT aka wxrisk in VA this guy probably has the best idea on what's going on. Another guy in VA called wxsynopsis is saying Richmond / Central VA is going to see some super storm dropping 10-14 inches. This guy is destined on the NAM. Any comments on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Again, fwiw... I took a peek at the EPS individual members and found the following: 32 of the 51 members (62.7%) have DC at 2" or more -- there are a few more that have DC right on the line for 2" or have the 2" line just east of DC proper 6 of those 32 members (18.75%) have DC at 6" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: mappy 27,243 posts Location:21120 ID: 12 Posted February 25, 2015 · Report post expecting a pity dusting up my way. enjoy southerners! Like this Some things never change At least I’m consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: mappy 27,243 posts Location:21120 ID: 12 Posted February 25, 2015 · Report post expecting a pity dusting up my way. enjoy southerners! Like this Some things never change Actually easterners...SE E and NE is in play. But I want you to be in too...because your posts are funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, RVAman said: I just had to join this message board to say hello to you fine gents, I've been watching this thread since the start. I live in Richmond, the local mets are saying the opposite of everything the models are leaning towards. If any of you are familiar with DT aka wxrisk in VA this guy probably has the best idea on what's going on. Another guy in VA called wxsynopsis is saying Richmond / Central VA is going to see some super storm dropping 10-14 inches. This guy is destined on the NAM. Any comments on this? It would be tough to top 8" for Richmond at most. The first issue is that it's not too cold and the ground won't be too cold. That'll shave off at least 1" of snow. Ratios also won't be 10:1 (which is the ratio of snow per inch of liquid). Temps should be 33/34. Since Richmond is an urban area, it should be slightly harder to get accumulating snow. I'd say 5-8" is for sure a possibility, and maybe a bit more if heavier snow bands can cool down surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, RVAman said: I just had to join this message board to say hello to you fine gents, I've been watching this thread since the start. I live in Richmond, the local mets are saying the opposite of everything the models are leaning towards. If any of you are familiar with DT aka wxrisk in VA this guy probably has the best idea on what's going on. Another guy in VA called wxsynopsis is saying Richmond / Central VA is going to see some super storm dropping 10-14 inches. This guy is destined on the NAM. Any comments on this? I'm pretty sure DT used to be one of us. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Again, fwiw... I took a peek at the EPS individual members and found the following: 32 of the 51 members (62.7%) have DC at 2" or more -- there are a few more that have DC right on the line for 2" or have the 2" line just east of DC proper 6 of those 32 members (18.75%) have DC at 6" or more How many show 1" or more? 1" for DC is the benchmark for at least a not terrible snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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