87storms Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: looks like surface temps are the only real concern i guess. still kinda funny how the weekend rule works around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: The NAM is (almost always) a POS. It just becomes a little less so (sometimes) the closer to an event. The higher res stuff can be a legit tool close in if you're using it right. Or when it shows snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 IF the 3k NAM is right (which it isn't because it's the NAM and it sucks), weenies be jumping off the cliff from 0z-14z Saturday looking at a precip edge in southern MD that doesn't move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ger said: Be funny if the models trended to yesterday's UKMET. UKMET new interim King? Maybe the king was impeached? LOLz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 It's currently snowing in Austin Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The GFS has been too stingy on the NW side since the last upgrade. IIRC- it was stingy before then. My guess is the 18z run will be "ok" but give some folks pause who are expecting a Euro/Ukie solution. I just want to see it tick NW in any way shape or form. If that happens then we're probably getting close to a lock for snow falling from the sky for at least the corridor and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 They have Winter Storm Warnings in deep south Texas right now http://www.weather.gov/ewx/ Corpus Christi is expecting up to 3 inches of snow overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 You can already see the height field is further west at 6hrs on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It's currently snowing in Austin Texas The NWS does not confirm this. Confirmation? I do like the moisture developing over North-Central TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Ger said: The NWS does not confirm this. Confirmation? I do like the moisture developing over North-Central TX Leesburg was trolling me. You should have seen how fast I checked out South Texas's weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Amped said: You can already see the height field is further west at 6hrs on the GFS. Height field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yea man, NS vort is further north and less of an influence. Whole system should shift NW through the SE and MA on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think this bodes well for the Winter, too. It's like math, differences effect the whole chain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Northern vort is further nw...which is good Yep, heights slightly higher out ahead of the southern vort, too. Should come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Height field? 500mb heights. Everything else ticked west also, that happened to be the first variable I was looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Wow, nice look at 12z Saturday morning. Already 0.1" into DC. Surface temps 34-35F near DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: Yep, heights slightly higher out ahead of the southern vort, too. Should come NW. Yup... can clearly see it when you compare 18z h5 at 42 hrs with 12z h5 at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nice MoCo outer deathband @ hr48. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Plenty of time for the .5" line to make it to 95. Maybe @ 0z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Almost 0.4" of liquid through 0z at DC. About 0.3" at Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looks just like the Euro out this way. The 0.01" line runs right through my yard, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Almost 0.4" of liquid through 0z at DC. About 0.3" at Baltimore. WSW's for Wes tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Best day ever! I mean since the last time we had freshies incoming anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nice MoCo outer deathband @ hr48. It's coming. I flipped my snow magnet on before I left for work this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Don't believe the Gfs snowfall map that reflects noticeably less snow around the cities. It's recent update is carp and has been the cause, I believe, in the busting high on overnight lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Starting to think I might even have a chance up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: I flipped my snow magnet on before I left for work this morning. My Dec climo is somewhere around 3.5" give or take. I have an outside shot it seems. If Saturday doesn't get it done then Tues should finish the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I appreciate people's caution with the surface temps and how much snow could accumulate. But if temps are actually 33-34, I'm not too worried as vertical profiles show that only the surface is above freezing. Well, I'm not too worried for everyone not sitting at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: I appreciate people's caution with the surface temps and how much snow could accumulate. But if temps are actually 33-34, I'm not too worried as vertical profiles show that only the surface is above freezing. Well, I'm not too worried for everyone not sitting at DCA. Also, rarely, we actually have the sun angle on our side (FWIW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Don't believe the Gfs snowfall map(s) that reflects noticeably less snow around the cities. It's recent update is carp and has been the cause, I believe, in the busting high on overnight lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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