AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: ban though that might work out ok for me. 50 degrees just south of DC right now, no cold front, low pressure moving through great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The 3k is the best NAM unless the 12k is better. Not in this case. 3k all the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 BristowWx 3,129 posts Location:NoVA ID: 3032 Posted January 7 · Report post We brought this one home folks. Proud to be a part of it. It looked bleak not that long ago. Nothing but the crime now. Like this Remind you of this storm? Seems to be the exact same thing. Only this time, it could trend farther NW for sure. That storm had 1-3" on the models within 1 day of the storm. We've still got multiple runs until that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I know we can't see vort maps for the 3k, but judging off the other maps, do any of the experts in here think that this solution is also close to a phase (like the 12k)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The 3k is the best NAM unless the 12k is better. Not in this case. 3k all the way!In all seriousness, the way I’ve seen the 3km play out, out west with my sites in Texas, I’m pretty intrigued. If anything, that qpf shield on 3km is what I thought 12km would show. Further expansion back west to HGR. Incremental upticks further south and east. Euro has precip all the way out to Cumberland. I like the trends. Will be interesting to see how GFS handles the H5 setup. NAM just missed being something really good down here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 12k NAM blows. I thought it was going to be great baswd on comments. I was told Leesburg was snow capital of NOVA when I bought a house here. Edit: 3k NAM is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalBecs said: 12k NAM blows. I thought it was going to be great baswd on comments. I was told Leesburg was snow capital of NOVA when I bought a house here. Edit: 3k NAM is ok It will keep trending NW. This happens with most noreasters. At most you guys will get .1 or maybe .2" of precip if you're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 When will NE Maryland get pummeled? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Quick question. How beneficial would it be if the solution phased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Updated AFD from Mount Holly- The system that we have been watching for Friday night and Saturday is showing better organization today and also a track closer to the coast. All of the operational models are now showing a good chance for some accumulating snow across parts of Delmarva and southern / central NJ for the early part of the weekend. We have adjusted pops/qpf/snowfall fcsts accordingly. Much of the show will occur during the 4th period of the fcst, so we`ll hold for any winter weather headlines for now. Our fcst would align with advisory criteria snowfall, but with trends continuing to develop, we`ll see the next set of model runs before deciding which flags are needed and where. Our snowfall fcst may be conservative considering the QPF amts being forecasted by some of the models at 12Z. Temperatures will continue below normal through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: 12k NAM blows. I thought it was going to be great baswd on comments. I was told Leesburg was snow capital of NOVA when I bought a house here. Edit: 3k NAM is ok LOL you talked to Ji before you moved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Until it becomes confrontational snow... 1 hour ago, smokeybandit said: Is this when the snow plow guy blocks your driveway after you just spent an hour clearing it out? No -- confrontational snow is: confrontational /kənˈfrʌnʃən·nəl/ adj 1) Likely to provoke extreme inter-forum jealousy and squabbling between the haves and have-nots 2) Expecting general distance between fringed and jackpot of less than 75 miles 3) Anticipating greater than 30% of the MA forum organizes with pitchforks to visit PSU after he posts deck pics 4) High percentage opportunity for weenie soul reapings Personally, I'm hoping the west trends continue so everyone can get in on at least some snow TV. ANY kind of flakes this early is a win based on the past couple of years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 .5" precip line is so close to DC. Move it 50 miles and we've got winter storm watches for DC/Fairfax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I mean, why don't they upgrade models? We all know it will keep going NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Somehow with this setup IAD will manage to get more snow than DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: In all seriousness, the way I’ve seen the 3km play out, out west with my sites in Texas, I’m pretty intrigued. If anything, that qpf shield on 3km is what I thought 12km would show. Further expansion back west to HGR. Incremental upticks further south and east. Euro has precip all the way out to Cumberland. I like the trends. Will be interesting to see how GFS handles the H5 setup. NAM just missed being something really good down here. . 3k looks sweet. 3-6 from NW to SE through the corridor verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Prince William County roads are also Brined and as I’m heading in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Somehow with this setup IAD will manage to get more snow than DCA No matter what happens, outside some phase, DCA will not record more than 3". And that's generous. Very generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3k looks sweet. 3-6 from NW to SE through the corridor verbatim.I just looked at that myself. It would be a pretty solid early season event. Idk if we’ll get those kind of numbers (Although we very well could), but I’m keeping expectations in check. Coating to an inch out my way is the hope. You’d have a better shot at more. You gotta be low key planning on breaking out the good beer just in case . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: Prince William County roads are also Brined and as I’m heading in Can confirm roads around UMD are also brined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Can confirm roads around UMD are also brined. No they decided it wasn’t needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ger said: No matter what happens, outside some phase, DCA will not record more than 3". And that's generous. Very generous. I think that’s the December average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I'm in for the phase. Let's go big. January 25, 2000 or December 19, 2009. We are overdue for a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Someone start a “showmethesnow”storm thread if 18z holds. Just sayin. Credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 So now the NAM is not a POS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Someone start a “showmethesnow”storm thread if 18z holds. Just sayin. Credit where credit is due. Can't change threads now. Stuck gold here. We can rename any obs thread through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Be funny if the models trended to yesterday's UKMET. UKMET new interim King? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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