psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Let's discuss it in here since it's not long range anymore and even if it's not likely going to end well clogging up the long range thread with 5000 posts about a storm 2-3 days away won't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Congrats DT and Salisbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just wait...this is gonna bring it back! Reverse psychology and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'd say if the storm shows NO improvement by 18z, tomorrow, it's time to throw in the towel. Last time I'll reference the Jan 2017 event, but Thursday was the day when the major shifts happen. I remember seeing the 12z in the car and getting a bit of excitement in my chest. Stranger things have happened before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Just wait...this is gonna bring it back! Reverse psychology and stuff. If not people can come after me. I can take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just wait...this is gonna bring it back! Reverse psychology and stuff. Nah, it's not reverse psychology. The storm just needed it's own thread to be respected enough. If it's not treated as its own event, it won't preform like a real snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: I'd say if the storm shows NO improvement by 18z, tomorrow, it's time to throw in the towel. Last time I'll reference the Jan 2017 event, but Thursday was the day when the major shifts happen. I remember seeing the 12z in the car and getting a bit of excitement in my chest. Stranger things have happened before Never surrender. January 2000!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 What happened when the December new thread was started... It went downhill from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18z GEFS seems to have more members NW, but still has slightly lower snow/precip totals. I'd say on the pain scale, it's a 1-2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Our buddy the Navgem at 18z is definitely west , stronger and slower. Much stronger with the southern vort. H5 looks similar to the Ukie fwiw. It seems to be missing some panels on TT. lol Like trying to figure out the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Our buddy the Navgem at 18z is definitely west , stronger and slower. Much stronger with the southern vort. H5 looks similar to the Ukie fwiw. Slow and steady for the storm wins the race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: Slow and steady for the storm wins the race Problem is two major models say NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Interstate said: It seems to be missing some panels on TT It wanted to fit in with the people in here that seem to be missing some marbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: We know it’s not your fault. This could be tied to the panic index As if that's ever stopped them before lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I remain very optimistic. Tonight is 48+ hours from start. Just too much time left for a change for the better with such a slight improvement needed (relatively speaking.) And let's say the shoe was on the other foot and the Euro/Gfs showed a hit while the other models didn't. No one in this forum would confident 48+ hours out and all would fear a Euro/Gfs collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Interstate said: Problem is two major models say NO Shhh. Those models mean nothing. It's in the weather weenie rule to always to trust the model that shows the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Problem is two major models say NO I think everyone knows this is a loooong shot. Like full court lob at best. So just have some fun with it. No expectations. It's early December. We're playing with house money. If a miracle happens great. If not oh well. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I remain very optimistic. Tonight is 48+ hours from start. Just too much time left for a change for the better with such a slight improvement needed (relatively speaking.) And let's say the shoe was on the other foot and the Euro/Gfs showed a hit while the other models didn't. No one in this forum would confident 48+ hours out and all would fear a Euro/Gfs collapse. I give you points for attitude! I always fear a fail until I can actually see the system in real time and see how it's progressing. I don't trust the models. But that's what makes this so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think everyone knows this is a loooong shot. Like full court lob at best. So just have some fun with it. No expectations. It's early December. We're playing with house money. If a miracle happens great. If not oh well. Next. Back when models showed both the coastal and clipper had a chance for us, I figured max potential was like 2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 If you squint, it looks like GFS is kinda trending NW, just a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 A previous happy post about the GEFS that turned sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I figured the Navgem drops .84" qpf off the 18z run imby. I took a second look at the legend and it is the average mm that falls per hour during a 6 hour period. So basically, multiply 6 times the amount corresponding to the color in the legend to get the total qpf in mm for that 6-hour period, then multiply that times .4 for inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, Interstate said: What happened when the December new thread was started... It went downhill from there It's already in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 18z GEFS ensemble yesterday vs 18z GEFS ensemble today 18z GEFS today I see more blues/grays. We take That's because you only ran it out to 78 hours. 78 hours from yesterday's 18z is pre-storm. The trend went the other way on the gefs. Less snowy rather than more snowy. Exactly the opposite point you were trying to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Negnao said: That's because you only ran it out to 78 hours. 78 hours from yesterday's 18z is pre-storm. The trend went the other way on the gefs. Less snowy rather than more snowy. Exactly the opposite point you were trying to make. Oh. I guess a 5-6 on the pain scale is more needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: It's already in the valley. Soon to be off the continental shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Question.. Do each country's weather agency use other country's sampling data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 59 minutes ago, Cobalt said: If you squint, it looks like GFS is kinda trending NW, just a bit Great Lakes lows are never our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 21z SREFS a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 What every weather weenie will be dreaming of tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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