dallen7908 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Capital Weather Gang Conversational Snow https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/12/07/snow-chances-creep-back-up-for-friday-night-into-saturday-but-still-uncertain/?utm_term=.d8622d040be7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:17 PM, dallen7908 said: Capital Weather Gang Conversational Snow https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/12/07/snow-chances-creep-back-up-for-friday-night-into-saturday-but-still-uncertain/?utm_term=.d8622d040be7 Expand They may call it conversational snow, but since we don't get to "conversate" much around here in December, it's a big deal! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:17 PM, dallen7908 said: Capital Weather Gang Conversational Snow https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/12/07/snow-chances-creep-back-up-for-friday-night-into-saturday-but-still-uncertain/?utm_term=.d8622d040be7 Expand all snow causes conversation..."hey look, its snowing"....that's how it starts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:50 PM, osfan24 said: RGEM looks east for us. Looks real good NYC/Boston. Probably 3-6 up that way. Expand Where are you getting the data from. The above link isnt working past 8 hours for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:20 PM, BristowWx said: all snow causes conversation..."hey look, its snowing"....that's how it starts... Expand Until it becomes confrontational snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 4:01 PM, Bob Chill said: The most important thing on the GFS run that allowed the backing of the precip field is the NS vort being a little slower. Slow it down another 25-50 miles or so and the more significant precip will likely encroach I95. Expand The models have shifted west as changes to the north and west allowed the surface low off the coast track a tad west of the previous run. Temps at the surface are forecast to remain above freezing so accumulating snow still is less likely than conversational non sticking snow except maybe on leaves or grass. However if the snow intensity were to increase then the temps might be a little colder so I’m hesitant to completely dismiss the possibility this far out from when the precipitation might start. The forecast remains tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:30 PM, Scraff said: Until it becomes confrontational snow... Expand Is this when the snow plow guy blocks your driveway after you just spent an hour clearing it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:31 PM, usedtobe said: The models have shifted west as changes to the north and west allowed the surface low off the coast track a tad west of the previous run. Temps at the surface are forecast to remain above freezing so accumulating snow still is less likely than conversational non sticking snow except maybe on leaves or grass. However if the snow intensity were to increase then the temps might be a little colder so I’m hesitant to completely dismiss the possibility this far out from when the precipitation might start. The forecast remains tricky Expand Agreed. Euro showed 32 and below temps overnight Friday for many areas outside of the UHI spots. Could help with onset. Areas that start off sub freezing and get a coating going won't have a hard time accumulating with temps around 33-35 during the day. Definitely not a 10-1 ration scenario no matter how you slice it. Comparing the 0z and 12z eps mean precip is pretty impressive. That was a wholesale shift in guidance. .1 line is all the way out to Hagerstown/Winchester now. 0z was still SE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I think it's been mentioned a bit already but wow, what a world of a difference on the EPS mean. From a mean of maybe .5" at 0z at DCA to 2.5"... What a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:50 PM, stormtracker said: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Expand Yup, back wave is definitely going to trend NW. Maybe a lot. looks like a program missing data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 EPS Mean Track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:16 PM, WeatherShak said: *You're Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:50 PM, losetoa6 said: A obvious shift west and much stronger lows as well ...nice.. Hopefully not done . I'll take E36 and E11 Expand Spill the beans.. what exactly are we talking with E36 and E11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Good opportunity to test the murmurings over how temps have been busting low the last few weeks - would be nice to see that in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:35 PM, Bob Chill said: Agreed. Euro showed 32 and below temps overnight Friday for many areas outside of the UHI spots. Could help with onset. Areas that start off sub freezing and get a coating going won't have a hard time accumulating with temps around 33-35 during the day. Definitely not a 10-1 ration scenario no matter how you slice it. Comparing the 0z and 12z eps mean precip is pretty impressive. That was a wholesale shift in guidance. .1 line is all the way out to Hagerstown/Winchester now. 0z was still SE of DC. Expand can you imagine winning the opener....lol? usually we are like 3-23 when the season ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:53 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Spill the beans.. what exactly are we talking with E36 and E11? Expand Widespread 6"+. E11's evolution must be slightly different though because it jackpots a line up the center of VA to DC, while most of the others have the max along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 For some reason it feels like we're much deeper into the season. But its only Dec 7. I will keep that in mind as I manage my expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 7:57 PM, losetoa6 said: Snow maps have the 6" inch line all the way to the Pa border nw of Baltimore where my yard is on those 2 . Expand MBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looking forward to a NAMming here shortly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 My spider senses are tingling re: 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Prediction: based on the early panels, we are about to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 8:01 PM, losetoa6 said: Heck yea Expand if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 8:01 PM, stormtracker said: My spider senses are tingling re: 18z NAM Expand yes sir....definitely a jog NW vs. 12z, at least thru 23 hrs EDIT: sharper trough too by a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NAM looking more NW has snow into TN now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Heights a little higher along the east coast and the Southern wave seems a smidge more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Coming north. Jet pulls farther north and we are now seeing it bow at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 that "Previous Run" feature on TT is great on these kinds of systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Not as big of a change with the northern piece, actually slower and a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looked at the 12 UKMET and it looks like it gives us at least 12.5 mm of liquid....pretty good amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 8:08 PM, StormchaserChuck said: Not as big of a change with the northern piece, actually slower and a bit north Expand Which is precisely what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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