BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:57 AM, Cobalt said: What every weather weenie will be dreaming of tonight Expand My god...I forgot about that. What a morning that was. Models have improved way to much for that to happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:59 AM, BristowWx said: My god...I forgot about that. What a morning that was. Models have improved way to much for that to happen again. Expand That was before my time, but it seems like surprises like these were outweighed by other disappointments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Is it just me or did the mid-Atlantic and the southeast coast get ****-slapped in that image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:00 AM, Cobalt said: That was before my time, but it seems like surprises like these were outweighed by other disappointments Expand The set up at that time was sweet. A good meteorologist friend said to not be surprised if we got a snowstorm that was unpredicted because the pattern was so good. When I got to work he said he thought that may be the one. Started warning people and it came true. Was an awesome event That is so different than what we have going on the next few days it should not even be mentioned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Gotta love the nam. Top link is for progged radar tonight at 9pm. Bottom link is reality, but at 8:38pm. Believe me, very little has changed. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=189 https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php EDIT: need to go up 1 hour on tgat Nam link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:05 AM, midatlanticweather said: The set up at that time was sweet. A good meteorologist friend said to not be surprised if we got a snowstorm that was unpredicted because the pattern was so good. When I got to work he said he thought that may be the one. Started warning people and it came true. Was an awesome event That is so different than what we have going on the next few days it should not even be mentioned! Expand Yeah, I was kinda being sarcastic when I referred to it. A change of that magnitude within 6 hours is unheard of, but us getting what from what looks like nothing to 4-6" (best case scenario for this event, maybe 2% chance imo) of happening isn't impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:06 AM, mitchnick said: Gotta love the nam. Top link is for progged radar tonight at 9pm. Bottom link is reality, but at 8:38pm. Believe me, very little has changed. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=189 https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php Expand Initial precip looks slightly NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:47 AM, yoda said: 21z SREFS a bit better Expand Difference between first snow vs no snow ex: gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 0z NAM so far VS 18z NAM 18z NAM Seems a bit NW, but I'm fairly sure the 2nd wave is what matters, soooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:07 AM, Cobalt said: Initial precip looks slightly NW Expand No. Compare the coverage in total the Nam said should be there versus reality. A ton more precip in reality. If it can't get a 2 hour forecast right, you know the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 When you've lost the NAM... Edit - LOL, was looking at the 00z Wednesday suite. Will rephrase. If all you have is the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:13 AM, eurojosh said: When you've lost the NAM... Edit - LOL, was looking at the 00z Wednesday suite. Will rephrase. If all you have is the NAM... Expand We've never really had the nam yet, sooooo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:06 AM, mitchnick said: Gotta love the nam. Top link is for progged radar tonight at 9pm. Bottom link is reality, but at 8:38pm. Believe me, very little has changed. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017120700&fh=2&xpos=0&ypos=189 https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php EDIT: need to go up 1 hour on tgat Nam link Expand I guess the NAM doesn't use composite radar.. not much of what you see in Georgia or Alabama is reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:21 AM, Yeoman said: I guess the NAM doesn't use composite radar.. not much of what you see in Georgia or Alabama is reaching the ground. Expand Go to the individual radar sites. Same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:24 AM, mitchnick said: Go to the individual radar sites. Same result. Expand ?? https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ffc&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=bmx&product=N0R&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is not the run we are looking for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 1:57 AM, Cobalt said: What every weather weenie will be dreaming of tonight Expand I remember being up and the ten o’clock news coming on and Sue Palka saying whoever went to bed early is in for a pleasant surprise when they wake up... Man that was awesome!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:26 AM, Yeoman said: ?? https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ffc&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=bmx&product=N0R&loop=no Expand Get some glasses https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=rax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=akq&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:30 AM, mitchnick said: Get some glasses https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=rax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=akq&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Expand agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 this thread is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:29 AM, BristowWx said: This is not the run we are looking for... Expand Looked ok and then boom, no precip for us or anyone within a 100 mile radius of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:34 AM, feloniousq said: this thread is a disaster Expand A controlled disaster is not a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:34 AM, Cobalt said: Looked ok and then boom, no precip for us or anyone within a 100 mile radius of us Expand Seems slower to pull the Gulf low out, not that it means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 850s seem to suggest storm is NW 0z Run But that just means it's mainly rain and the precip shield doesn't go NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looks close to something decent https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017120700&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:40 AM, mitchnick said: Looks close to something decent https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017120700&fh=60&xpos=0&ypos=4 Expand NAM doesn't move precip shield from 18z, despite the better look. Could be error on NAM's side, but I'd be skeptical. Let's see with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 That was a cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is just target practice guys. No real kill will result. Sharpen the skills for the big game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 since were analyzing the NAM, at 500 i guess it does appear to be holding back into the gulf, and is not out in front of the vort over the Great Lakes (18z). Not sure if it is a continuation of slowing the second piece of energy in the Gulf, and how that might look by tomorrow?? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 2:50 AM, pasnownut said: since were analyzing the NAM, at 500 i guess it does appear to be holding back into the gulf, and is not out in front of the vort over the Great Lakes (18z). Not sure if it is a continuation of slowing the second piece of energy in the Gulf, and how that might look by tomorrow?? Nut Expand Like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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