Forecasting Mid-Long Range WITHOUT Models.

[Newman]

There is no doubt in my mind that I want to pursue Meteorology for my future career. I am certainly successful in Calculus and Chemistry and do very well with computer and applications that go along with that. Also, I have read the textbooks, videos, resources to further my knowledge of the topic, but certainly not to the extent I wish as I sit in my junior year of high school. And on top of that, I am a complete weenie and have loved this passion since I was born (at least that's what my parents have told me!) However, I bring this up because I am certainly capable of forecasting future weather using simple deterministic numerical models (who isn't tbh?). If any meteorologists could point me towards resources that can help me "forecast" the weather per say using NO weather models and only other resources. I know I should be looking at Teleconnections, ENSO, QBO, AAM, MJO, etc., but if anybody could help me find places to read up on these things and where to find the data of them it would be greatly appreciated!

[isohume]

Unless you can solve second order differential equations in your head, you'll have to rely on numerical models for long term guidance.  You can start with climo and teleconection theories, but there is too much natural variability and chaos in weather to have any skill using these methods. All global signals and indices are model derived based on current patterns, etc. You need to remember deterministic model output is never correct for a multitude of reasons, so modelcasting wont serve you as well. You need to use the models, stats, ensembles, etc as general guidance and from that determine your level of confidence in a given pattern or event. Forecasting weather is subjective and moreso experienced-based. It's the state of the science currently.      

[USCG RS]

One thing you may want to consider is learning computer coding throughout college so that you can do research for computer models. Perhaps you can improve them. Other than that, I would heed the advice of the Met above.