Neblizzard Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Talk about a turn of events, this is probably a plowable snowstorm right up into orange county on Saturday, wow just wow. I didn’t see this coming tbh Even thought the UKMET is a reliable model, we didn’t really this coming when it had no support from the EURO, GFS, or EPS. The trend is real though , we’ll see if it shifts further west later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: Yes it does. The GGEM runs 4 times a day now. No one posts here anymore to share all info. According to tidbits/Wxbell I only have 00z and 12z for every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, mikem81 said: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Working here and looks good at hour 60 Thanks. That looks incredible. Especially for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: According to tidbits/Wxbell I only have 00z and 12z for every run Meteocentre runs it 4 times a day now. And the Canadian official site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, ag3 said: Meteocentre runs it 4 times a day now. And the Canadian official site. Gotcha thanks... wonder why nobody else does.. so does the rgem go beyond 48? Or is that still the ggem overlay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gotcha thanks... wonder why nobody else does.. so does the rgem go beyond 48? Or is that still the ggem overlay? Rgem goes to hour 84, but you could only see that on meteocentre, and click on "meteograms-precip", then click USA. NYC and PHL are the only 2 stations available but you can get a general idea. It runs to hour 84 on its own. Not GGEM overlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Wow, this is kinda off the wall. Have an event in NYC from noon until 9 p.m Saturday then have to drive back to Harrisburg. Am I actually screwed on getting home? Never would've thought that as of yesterday. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, canderson said: Wow, this is kinda off the wall. Have an event in NYC from noon until 9 p.m Saturday then have to drive back to Harrisburg. Am I actually screwed on getting home? Never would've thought that as of yesterday. Damn. I'd worry more about driving in NYC during the holiday season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Wow, this is kinda off the wall. Have an event in NYC from noon until 9 p.m Saturday then have to drive back to Harrisburg. Am I actually screwed on getting home? Never would've thought that as of yesterday. Damn. I fear driving in any snow on the PA Turnpike. There tends to be massive crashes, and with the first event possible of the season, get ready for all the newbies and crazies on the road. If you can wait until a few hours after the snow stops, you're better off. During snowfalls, the turnpike flat out scares me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 31 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Even thought the UKMET is a reliable model, we didn’t really this coming when it had no support from the EURO, GFS, or EPS. The trend is real though , we’ll see if it shifts further west later tonight This is one of the types of events where the UKMET can score a coup like we saw on 2-5-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: I fear driving in any snow on the PA Turnpike. There tends to be massive crashes, and with the first event possible of the season, get ready for all the newbies and crazies on the road. If you can wait until a few hours after the snow stops, you're better off. During snowfalls, the turnpike flat out scares me. Thankfully no turnpike - straight 78/287. Although 78 sucks probably worse than the turnpike ... We'll leave pretty early in the morning and should be in the city by 10ish, so I'm not worried about then. I'm terrible at reading times on these models, when does it have the brunt kick in and then move out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This is one of the types of events where the UKMET can score a coup like we saw on 2-5-16. It aint a coup anymore since every model except the 15z Srefs and the 12z JMA are on board today. Would be a coup if the Srefs ended up right with their dry model output at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 EPS just out. Looks identical to the op. Full cave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: EPS just out. Looks identical to the op. Full cave as well. .50" precip line into western Brooklyn and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: .50" precip line into western Brooklyn and Queens. What is the EPS showing up into Rockland and Orange? I’m still at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nice 4” or more event for Tuesday-Wednesday on the ECMWF followed by the coldest weather so far this winter. Two possible snowfall events before December 15 is a nice way to start meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is very jet induced as some have pointed out. Now we do want the Lakes upper low to move east faster to an extent because it can probably aid in lift and producing more snow and snow further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 00z to 12z..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 It's nice to be wrong when snow chances increase. I'd be happy with 2" mood snows. Good call by Forky regarding that northern stream low with yesterday's Ukie solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Seems a big difference is the upper lakes low, tugging the coastal west and aiding in lift (like Goose said), the deeper and further SE that is, better off we all are it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 00z to 12z..wow Wow, that’s a remarkable shift for the EPS in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, ag3 said: It aint a coup anymore since every model except the 15z Srefs and the 12z JMA are on board today. Would be a coup if the Srefs ended up right with their dry model output at 15z. With set ups like this the UK can be first and then the other models fall into line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This is like a soap opera, now the new NAM is a miss and the new SREFs are dry. Talk about run to run flip flops by multiple models in the last 24 hours... EDIT, Went by Typhoon Tip, guess he was joking?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: This is like a soap opera, now the new NAM is a miss and the new SREFs are dry. Talk about run to run flip flops by multiple models in the last 24 hours... The NAM is only out to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I have it out to hr 39 and if anything the precip field looks a tiny bit further NW. Guessing he might be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is like a soap opera, now the new NAM is a miss and the new SREFs are dry. Talk about run to run flip flops by multiple models in the last 24 hours... Huh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is like a soap opera, now the new NAM is a miss and the new SREFs are dry. Talk about run to run flip flops by multiple models in the last 24 hours... Most likely bodes well for the big dog next week. This is the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 since wpc wont let me cut and paste for some reason... Someone who's able to cut and paste it should do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Animal said: Most likely bodes well for the big dog next week. This is the event. NAM is west by hour 42, and much more precip. Let’s see ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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