SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 far east end of LI mixing at 18z Saturday but still all snow west of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This looks good except for Long Island who would see 4-8" verbatim. Awful map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nice little 2-4 incher setting up it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, ag3 said: Awful map: And what's awful about it exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The Euro shifted too, now I am listening, but we still need to watch to see if this was just an over correction West. I personally dont think we've seen the end of the west trend. Too much of a good thing? Maybe, who knows yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: And what's awful about it exactly? SV Euro snow map is an atrocious tool to use for NYC and LI. Same goes for the NAM ones off SV. They overestimate ocean influence and always underestimate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 If all this holds come 0z, WWA’s probably go up tomorrow morning for Upton’s entire area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: SV Euro snow map is an atrocious tool to use for NYC and LI. Same goes for the NAM ones off SV. They overestimate ocean influence and always underestimate snow. If you bothered to read my initial post in acknowledged that it was off for Long Island where I said it should be showing 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you bothered to read my initial post in acknowledged that it was off for Long Island where I said it should be showing 4-8". You called off the storm when it was still 60 hours out. You use the Euro way too much (as does Upton and the NWS). Look at dynamics. Ukmet has not wavered one time and it had plenty of support. Model accuracy inside of 72 hours is not a big difference. Navgem, Euro, JMA, GFS, NAM, Ukmet, etc. all have similar verification scores inside of 72 hours and the spread lessens even more inside of 48 hours. Ukmet had plenty of support and today the GFS and Euro caved to it. P.S. This is not done correcting either. Next few runs you will see jet induced precip get stronger in PA and the backside of storm. Surface low will not come much further west. Impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro shifted too, now I am listening, but we still need to watch to see if this was just an over correction West. I personally dont think we've seen the end of the west trend. Too much of a good thing? Maybe, who knows yet. Great 850s The track is perfect. .5 to .75 in spots east It's a lot of 3 to 6s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, ag3 said: You called off the storm when it was still 60 hours out. You use the Euro way too much. Look at dynamics. Ukmet has not wavered one time and it had plenty of support. Model accuracy inside of 72 hours is not a big difference. Navgem, Euro, JMA, GFS, NAM, Ukmet, etc. all have similar verification scores inside of 72 hours and the spread lessens even more inside of 48 hours. Ukmet had plenty of support and today the GFS and Euro caved to it. P.S. This is not done correcting either. Next few runs you will see jet induced precip get stronger in PA and the backside of storm. Surface low will not come much further west. Impossible. I never called off anything. I posted a scientific argument for why I didn't feel the pattern supported a significant system. I even said there could be a few inches of snow on LI and I stand by that. And if I end up being wrong, I will be the first to say it, but nothing is certain yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: Great 850s The track is perfect. .5 to .75 in spots east It's a lot of 3 to 6s I doubt anyone West of the Hudson river sees more than 4" and I still am weary that this was an over correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I never called off anything. I posted a scientific argument for why I didn't feel the pattern supported a significant system. I even said there could be a few inches of snow on LI and I stand by that. And if I end up being wrong, I will be the first to say it, but nothing is certain yet. H5 has changed today to a dynamic and phasing system. This is likely not done correcting wetter. 18z and 0z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The bickering really has to stop. It’s ridiculous. I’m going to just start deleting trolling/other BS posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I doubt anyone West of the Hudson river sees more than 4" and I still am weary that this was an over correction. I dont doubt it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I doubt anyone West of the Hudson river sees more than 4" and I still am weary that this was an over correction. You need more than 2 to4 ? 4 hours ago you were convinced this was a complete non event. 3 to 6 on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 You wouldn't even know that the Euro also has a miller b snowstorm inside of 6 days on today's run. LI and NYC do well in that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Euro drops the accumulation all the way up to me lol... last min shifts.. Bernie rayno nailed it.. just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12z thoughts? You around bruh? Maybe he's the pre steroid Bonds ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 When does this look to begin, tomorrow evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Lmao... umm.... king GGEM? what world is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: When does this look to begin, tomorrow evening? Saturday morning/afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lmao... umm.... king GGEM? what world is this No. GGEM backed off at 0z and at 6z it had ZERO. KING UKMET AND NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro drops the accumulation all the way up to me lol... last min shifts.. Bernie rayno nailed it.. just sayin Talk about a turn of events, this is probably a plowable snowstorm right up into orange county on Saturday, wow just wow. I didn’t see this coming tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, ag3 said: No. GGEM backed off at 0z and at 6z it had ZERO. KING UKMET AND NAVGEM. The ggem doesn’t run 06... it’s the rgem out to 48 and then 00z ggem is processed into data.. ggem only runs 00/12z so technically ggem had 1 run where it went OTS..besides UKIE and navgem, it’s been the most overall consistent, and UKIE went OTS last night too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Talk about a turn of events, this is probably a plowable snowstorm right up into orange county on Saturday, wow just wow. I didn’t see this coming tbh I saw the possibility... as did NOAA.. anyone that read uptown AFD Last couple days they were skeptical of the small precip shield on the NW side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Working here and looks good at hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Talk about a turn of events, this is probably a plowable snowstorm right up into orange county on Saturday, wow just wow. I didn’t see this coming tbh Not really , Probably is, No kidding . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Noaa had a 20% chance of snow for Saturday barely a possibility if you ask me. The only people on here that believed was Paul and Anthony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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