Rjay Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 4:55 PM, mikem81 said: Expand Yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here is today's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:00 PM, Rjay said: Here is today's Expand Idk how much I can believe 3” IMBY lol... my weenie only extends so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 nice shift west on the GEFS precip. .5 line almost back to NYC https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017120712&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Cough Cough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Yesterday's 12z UKIE was a big hit, you need to compare it to the 96hr UKIE for fair comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Gefs expand too... 2+ mean ito NYC, even rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:12 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Yesterday's 12z UKIE was a big hit, you need to compare it to the 96hr UKIE for fair comparison. Expand Today's UKMET drops .7 just west of NYC and the 1 inch line to Tom's River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:32 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gefs expand too... 2+ mean ito NYC, even rockland Expand Yes and the .5 line on the GFS runs I 95 and points east out to about the Cross Island Prkway You guys only need another 25 miles at 12 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Remember, folks.... snow begets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 It's laughable how negative everyone here is and how the inland posters are leading this. 12z models all made a big shift west, including the GEFS and GFS. Calling off a storm outside of 48 hours is foolish. 12z model consensus is 2"-5" for NYC metro. 4"+ for LI. NWS will update their snowfall after the Euro caves in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 So the only model without snow now is the CMC which was the most bullish model yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:48 PM, mikem81 said: Expand Navgem came well west at 12z and has .75" to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:49 PM, Stormlover74 said: So the only model without snow now is the CMC which was the most bullish model yesterday? Expand CMC has not run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:49 PM, ag3 said: CMC has not run today. Expand oops your right. was looking at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:49 PM, ag3 said: Navgem came well west at 12z and has .75" to NYC.Red flag. Shift west should be seriously considered at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:44 PM, ag3 said: It's laughable how negative everyone here is and how the inland posters are leading this. 12z models all made a big shift west, including the GEFS and GFS. Calling off a storm outside of 48 hours is foolish. 12z model consensus is 2"-5" for NYC metro. 4"+ for LI. NWS will update their snowfall after the Euro caves in 30 minutes. Expand The Euro has had a progressive bias the last 2 years with any non dynamic or deep system. I would be careful about being sure it’s going to come west even with the jet dynamics and all it also tends to run dry on QPF in weaker systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:55 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro has had a progressive bias the last 2 years with any non dynamic or deep system. I would be careful about being sure it’s going to come west even with the jet dynamics and all it also tends to run dry on QPF in weaker systems Expand It's already NW with every feature at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 5:54 PM, USCG RS said: Red flag. Shift west should be seriously considered at this point. Navgem so far West r/s line into 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This site is dead now but the 12z Euro just CAVED to the Ukmet and Navgem big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:01 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: On 12/7/2017 at 5:54 PM, USCG RS said: Red flag. Shift west should be seriously considered at this point. Expand Navgem so far West r/s line into 95 Expand No. Cant use 540 line in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:02 PM, ag3 said: This site is dead now but the 12z Euro just CAVED to the Ukmet and Navgem big time. Expand Its only out to 48 and has a LP just off Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:03 PM, mikem81 said: Its only out to 48 and has a LP just off Hatteras Expand It's out to hour 60 and it CAVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The Euro shifted too, now I am listening, but we still need to watch to see if this was just an over correction West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:04 PM, ag3 said: It's out to hour 60 and it CAVED. Expand Definitely looks like the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:05 PM, dmillz25 said: Definitely looks like the Ukie Expand Matches the Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 6:02 PM, ag3 said: This site is dead now but the 12z Euro just CAVED to the Ukmet and Navgem big time. Expand Yep, huge cave. The Euro is going to be a high end advisory event even NW of NYC, this is no longer an I-95 east event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 wow, this is gonna be a pretty big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 This looks good except for Long Island who would see 4-8" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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