Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS significantly Nw thru 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 997 inside benchmark and we can’t even get precip into Orange County... that northern streams acting as a kicker regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 With the exception of precip extending a bit further NW, GFS now looks like nam.... anyone care to comment? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 People give up way too fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: With the exception of precip extending a bit further NW, GFS now looks like nam.... anyone care to comment? Lol Not as much precip as the NAM. It actually looks a lot like the 6z GFS, just a little more NW with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You guys need to stop living and dying with each NAM run. Nothing really improved this run in terms of trough orientation, it's just that the jet dynamics were a bit stronger and so the precip field was more expansive and a bit more tucked in. The 18z run could very well switch back. I wouldn't even pay attention to it unless we see major changes from the GFS and Euro. 1 down 1 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Not as much precip as the NAM. It actually looks a lot like the 6z GFS, just a little more NW with the precip shield. It just shifted west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The is an I 95 and east event. It's not a big storm , its accumulating snow there and not a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The northern stream acting as a kicker is right, it’ll limit how far NW this can get. But hopefully many of us can still salvage something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The northern stream acting as a kicker is right, it’ll limit how far NW this can get. But hopefully many of us can still salvage something. If it dIves in right it will create height rises on the EC. NAM and UKMET and the GFS is adjusting west towards that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The GFS ticked slightly West, that was almost to be expected. That's why I was willing to go up to 2" for Eastern LI. Again, I said there could be snow, especially on LI. I expect mostly sunny conditions West of the Hudson river with some high cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The GFS ticked slightly West, that was almost to be expected. That's why I was willing to go up to 2" for Eastern LI. Again, I said there could be snow, especially on LI. I expect mostly sunny conditions West of the Hudson river with some high cirrus.Epic backpedaling/cya bro.So is this a trend or windshield wiper stuff with a tick back East later now is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Epic backpedaling/cya bro. So is this a trend or windshield wiper stuff with a tick back East later now is the question. It's windshield wiper stuff. No backpedaling here. My forecast remains the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The is an I 95 and east event. It's not a big storm , its accumulating snow there and not a whiff.Best to-the-point post in entire thread right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Belongs in met thread I know, rayno tweeted he’s on board with larger precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: People give up way too fast The tendency to write off potential events seems stronger this year than in recent years. Just sticking with probabilistic scenarios, my thinking from a few days ago that Friday-Saturday could bring parts of the region its first measurable snow event (a light accumulation) seems to have held up reasonably well. The pattern has a higher than climatological frequency of measurable snow events (1950-2016) for the relevant timeframe. The event around the 13th could be a bit larger. None of these are guaranteed outcomes, but I like how things are evolving. if there is to be a KU-type event or a significant snowfall (widespread 6” or more amounts), I suspect that the second half of the month would be more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's windshield wiper stuff. No backpedaling here. My forecast remains the same. I don’t think anyone is expecting much west of Hudson.. even at its best run like ggem. Was barley anything west of Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 NAM 3-6" across the Metro, GFS 1-3" across the Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS ticked slightly West, that was almost to be expected. That's why I was willing to go up to 2" for Eastern LI. Again, I said there could be snow, especially on LI. I expect mostly sunny conditions West of the Hudson river with some high cirrus. What should I do with that .3 in Monmouth County ? Give it back ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Belongs in met thread I know, rayno tweeted he’s on board with larger precip shield Look at the RH field / I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: What should I do with that .3 in Monmouth County ? Give it back ? We need to see some type of run to run continuity before you can take it seriously. Nobody should be celebrating over one run or one model cycle. Anyone that's been around for awhile knows that there will still be more changes to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, PB GFI said: Look at the RH field / I agree Better upper jet dynamic. Notoriously under modeled... better lift will be picked up by models over next 36 hours.. don’t expect a banger of a shift, but expect to see larger swath of accumulating light snows... let’s say 2-4 max... 1-2” common, anyone west of 84 and north of rockland are DOA other than mood flakes.. that’s my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: We need to see some type of run to run continuity before you can take it seriously. Nobody should be celebrating over one run or one model cycle. Anyone that's been around for awhile knows that there will still be more changes to come. I don't disagree with the last part but you have to acknowledge the improvements at 500 out of the N branch These are usually poorly sampled in the mid range and can make or break a forecast. I don't swing with every model , I posted . 2 to .3 when the euro OP showed zero and when the UKMET dropped .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Better upper jet dynamic. Notoriously under modeled... better lift will be picked up by models over next 36 hours.. don’t expect a banger of a shift, but expect to see larger swath of accumulating light snows... let’s say 2-4 max... 1-2” common, anyone west of 84 and north of rockland are DOA other than mood flakes.. that’s my call This was always a potential E of NYC threat.. 1-3" looks possible especially for those on the eastern end. Any closer though and you might be talking rain there. 2m temps on the GFS/NAM are in mid to upper 30s verbatim during the height of the event. For us up here in the NW... 25° w/ flurries in the air will just about do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: This was always a potential E of NYC threat.. 1-3" looks possible especially for those on the eastern end. Any closer though and you might be talking rain there. 2m temps on the GFS/NAM are in mid to upper 30s verbatim during the height of the event. For us up here in the NW... 25° w/ flurries in the air will just about do it. Got 2 Xmas parties on sat.. I’ll take mood flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Got 2 Xmas parties on sat.. I’ll take mood flakes Same here... Next week does have a wintry look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 UKIE looks good. West of 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Just now, mikem81 said: Use this link for correct accum http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&type=PR&hi=000&hf=072&mode=latest&lang=en&map=qc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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