Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: I wasn’t referring to 3 days ago, just meant out of the most recent runs. Gotcha. That was a big jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Timestamp indicates that it’s from yesterday afternoon. IF 12z follows the 6z route then I would expect them to bump it all up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 After seeing the trends of the last 24 hours I am no longer confident that even far Eastern Long Island sees significant snow. The Hamptons out to the twin forks could possibly see a coating to as much as 2" if things play out favorably. West of there could see some mood flakes, perhaps a light coating. West of the Hudson river will probably be mostly sunny. As I mentioned yesterday, I didn't like the orientation of the trough axis which is greatly positive as the surface low is forming. So there is really no choice but for the system to track up and out vs up and in. The only real thing that could have salvaged this setup at H5 would have been if the WAR suddenly trended much stronger and pushed the precip shield far enough West, but either way it's a bit of a strung out mess. The storm is weakening by the time it reaches the benchmark which doesn't help things either. Overall it's a giant can of meh and has been for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nams a much better run this time for coastal sections... stronger SW, and slightly better trof orientation, parts of jersey do ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Nam is further west on this run Looks good for the coast at hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam is further west on this run Looks good for the coast at hour 54 Snows up into rockland this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 998 close to benchmark... stronger than prev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 LI is very close to rain on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2-3” up to rockland on nam, sharp cut from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Weird.. nam develops a second LP, as our initial slips to the NE, another takes over in its place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 0.50 + qpf for NYC with more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Take that back 3-5” NYC on nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LI is very close to rain on the nam gotta smell the taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Excerpt from NOAA AFD... they’re reluctant to make a call just yet The models in the past have shown a tendency to miss the impact of upper jet dynamics, well away from the low pressure. The models are indicating max winds in the jet close to 200 kt at 250 mb across northern New England. This could help push precip a bit further north and west, especially if the flow is more amplified than it is currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The idea of a decent event isn’t over, especially from the city east. Again it wouldn’t take huge changes to expand the snow west enough to at least I-95. A slightly more amplified pattern can do it. If you’re expecting something major out of this you’ll be disappointed, but a couple or few inches is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Hi res nam gets decent snow well inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 through hour 60, 3K NAM. Just some eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, psv88 said: gotta smell the taint You will be good with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: You will be good with this Not sure how much i actually see, based on BL and warm ground, i think a coating would be a win here, maybe an inch by the forks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The idea of a decent event isn’t over, especially from the city east. Again it wouldn’t take huge changes to expand the snow west enough to at least I-95. A slightly more amplified pattern can do it. If you’re expecting something major out of this you’ll be disappointed, but a couple or few inches is on the table. Guys spike footballs in here before real sampling takes place. The Southern feature just needed to be 6 hours slower and the N branch ( poorly sampled ) dives in and allow the height falls all the way up the coast. it's what the UKMET has been locked on to. The " confidence " in here is palpable. The NAM doesn't constitute a trend but represents what could happen if the N branch dives in just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 You guys need to stop living and dying with each NAM run. Nothing really improved this run in terms of trough orientation, it's just that the jet dynamics were a bit stronger and so the precip field was more expansive and a bit more tucked in. The 18z run could very well switch back. I wouldn't even pay attention to it unless we see major changes from the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Not sure how much i actually see, based on BL and warm ground, i think a coating would be a win here, maybe an inch by the forks You could see about 3 hours of decent upper level support where it might come down hard enough to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The NWS does not even have NYC or LI in the zone of a 90% chance of beating 0"!!! Points S and W have a 10% chance of beating 4". Mostly likely amount is a Trace, where there is any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 What I don’t get is people that make there thoughts clear... and continue to hammer home on it..move on, you don’t like it for more than a trace or less we get it.. no need to continually let the collective crowd know you still don’t like the set up... I have less than 0% chance of seeing snow, but I’m not commenting every day about how people need to stop paying attention to certain models blah blah.. same crap different year... u dont like the threat, move on and out of the threat thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 The best reverse indicator has spoken. Nothing is cutting into a TPV , once it elongates and retrogrades , you will snow. Patience.Good to see you brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What I don’t get is people that make there thoughts clear... and continue to hammer home on it..move on, you don’t like it for more than a trace or less we get it.. no need to continually let the collective crowd know you still don’t like the set up... I have less than 0% chance of seeing snow, but I’m not commenting every day about how people need to stop paying attention to certain models blah blah.. same crap different year... u dont like the threat, move on and out of the threat thread I'm not sure if this is directed at me or not, but it has nothing to do with my backyard. I don't really like this setup from a meteorological standpoint for anyone within this subforum. It's funny because I knew the NAM run had ticked West just based on the number of posts I missed while I was gone. So then I took a quick glance at the run and realized it was just typical NAM BS until proven differently. I think it's important that people keep very low expectations with this event and if it ends up developing into something more then we can be pleasantly surprised. Personally I am hoping for a miss, but that has no bearing on my analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 You guys need to stop living and dying with each NAM run. Nothing really improved this run in terms of trough orientation, it's just that the jet dynamics were a bit stronger and so the precip field was more expansive and a bit more tucked in. The 18z run could very well switch back. I wouldn't even pay attention to it unless we see major changes from the GFS and Euro. I think the point here, though, is that this is not something to write off. This is yet again another thread the needle type scenario, but these scenarios have delivered numerous times over the pat several years. That being said, if you are expecting a MECS, then yes I believe you will be sorely disappointed. However, if you are looking for a few inches, especially east of the city, then you are well within the range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'm not sure if this is directed at me or not, but it has nothing to do with my backyard. I don't really like this setup from a meteorological standpoint for anyone within this subforum. It's funny because I knew the NAM run had ticked West just based on the number of posts I missed while I was gone. So then I took a quick glance at the run and realized it was just typical NAM BS until proven differently. I think it's important that people keep very low expectations with this event and if it ends up developing into something more then we can be pleasantly surprised. Personally I am hoping for a miss, but that has no bearing on my analysis. Not really at u... I don’t think it’s going to be much of anything myself, nor am I changing my discussion based on a few runs, the same reason I refused to hug the UKIE/ggem combo. but i do believe each run is equally important to at least look at and discuss why it did what it did, I’m not gonna jump down anyone for posting the 6z nam for discussion... we all get it, there’s plenty of people that post and hug and wish... but I just ignore. that’s how others learn. Keep it a discussion, nobody in here’s getting paid for there Thoughts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.