December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

The radar is looking amazing I wouldn’t look at any models anymore. I’d say 4 inches is a lock

2-5 looks doable in NYC

[North and West]

FYI



.

[Animal]

Mt Holly NWS is suggesting a bust in the making is possible for their counties.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: The dry air near the surface continues to be a
hindrance for snow making the move northward, but it looks like
the process is beginning now thanks to substantial large-scale
lift approaching the area. As a potent vort max approaches the
Mid-Atlantic today, jet dynamics combined with considerable
differential cyclonic vorticity advection will permit widespread
precipitation to develop north into the area. Timing of the vort
max appears to have slowed by 3-6 hours...another reason for the
slower onset of precipitation across the area. However, the dry
air near the surface will continue to pose problems early on in
the event for much if any snow to accumulate north of the
Mason-Dixon Line. The trend of the HRRR and HRRR-X has been
downward with QPF today, though not substantially so. The 06Z NAM
Nest continues rather bullish in comparison but has shifted the
snow banding somewhat eastward. The dry look of the GFS is
worrisome, particularly with considerable precipitation ongoing
in the western Atlantic (which may prevent as much northward
advection of more substantial moisture).

Using an updated consensus blend of the 06Z GFS, 06Z NAM Nest,
several HRRR cycles, the 00Z RGEM/WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM, the latest
WPC guidance, and some continuity, QPF went down a few
hundredths of an inch across the area, with most places
receiving up to an inch less of snow than the forecasts this
past evening. This warrants no change to any of the winter
headlines at this point, though the winter storm warning for the
counties bordering the Delaware River looks pretty borderline

[RU848789]

Latest HRRR with a general 2-4" of snowfall for the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with about 2-3" in Philly and along a line running up I-95 in PA and about 3-4" along a line a bit east of the NJTPK to NYC (including NB) - and nobody getting more than maybe 5". This is definitely 1-2" less than was being shown by most of the global models through late last night.  Sucks, but 2-4" would still be nice...although 3-6" would've been nicer, lol...

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Latest HRRR with a general 2-4" of snowfall for the I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC, with about 2-3" in Philly and along a line running up I-95 in PA and about 3-4" along a line a bit east of the NJTPK to NYC (including NB) - and nobody getting more than maybe 5". This is definitely 1-2" less than was being shown by most of the global models through late last night.  Sucks, but 2-4" would still be nice...although 3-6" would've been nicer, lol...

The nam agrees. 3-5"

[jm1220]

This is coming together as expected, maybe delayed a couple of hours. If you look SW of here at the Dover radar, you can see some heavier activity there, and banding developing now over NJ/eastern PA. The jet dynamics are on their way north and will enhance things. This will also last well into the evening and night because of the upper air low pushing through. I'm sticking with what I thought last night, which is 5" generally in the city, 6-7" in parts of Suffolk and 3-5" west of the city. Maybe a little bullish given how the QPF has been drying somewhat but we'll see. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Nice banding developing right through the heart of the area. If that banding stays as is, it looks like western LI could be a screw zone. Regardless this a great long duration event for all of us!

[jm1220]

HRRR improved somewhat, now has 0.5" liquid for the city and 4-6" for most on this subforum. 

[jm1220]

And wow, good snow reaching back just about to the Poconos now. Snow will be picking up on Long Island with the heavier activity moving through S NJ now. 

[swataz]

Reading the most recent discussion from Upton, it seems they are sticking to their guns and calling for a lollipop of 6-8 on northeastern LI with a slight caveat it may bust lower or even higher by 1-2”. 

[USCG RS]

Reading the most recent discussion from Upton, it seems they are sticking to their guns and calling for a lollipop of 6-8 on northeastern LI with a slight caveat it may bust lower or even higher by 1-2”. 

I don't blame them, the jet dynamics/ vorticity with this storm are rather strong.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z NAM is a widespread 3-5" across the area.

 

 

 

 

Damn that’s that western LI screw zone I was afraid of!!

[swataz]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

23 minutes ago, swataz said:

Reading the most recent discussion from Upton, it seems they are sticking to their guns and calling for a lollipop of 6-8 on northeastern LI with a slight caveat it may bust lower or even higher by 1-2”. 
 

I don't blame them, the jet dynamics/ vorticity with this storm are rather strong.

True, and even the NAM lollipops that area. MY area! And contrary to many people’s desires, I am not happy about it! Lol

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Damn that’s that western LI screw zone I was afraid of!!

I would ignore the snow maps. According to that I guess I get less than an inch. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I would ignore the snow maps. According to that I guess I get less than an inch. 

I know I’m not taking it verbatim. I’m just afraid of a zone between the banding to our west and the oceanic moisture to the east that does poorly

[SnowBlitzkrieg]

someone's gotta go clean the lens in Wantagh

[viking70]

In terms of snowfall, based on P-type and dynamics mentioned above,
still expecting 5 to 7 inches of snow for SE CT and Eastern LI
(except for far SE portions due to mixing). Farther west a
solid advisory level snow expected, with 3 to 6 inches to around
the NY/NJ metro and the Hudson River. NOTE: Based on the slower
onset of steadier snow, marginal surface temps, and diurnal
solar insolation, expecting roadway snow accumulation to become
more of a concern and hazard starting in the mid to late
afternoon through the evening.

 

Love the weather speak here in bold.  Diurnal solar insolation. (when it gets dark)  

[Paragon]

19 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I agree things look favorable this month for a nice encore or three, hopefully a biggie, but I mostly take things one storm at a time. Awesome patterns are still based on luck at the end in timing to create a storm. They’ve gone bad plenty of times too. 

Nina winters are mostly good in December in the upper Mid Atlantic, so hopefully we get as much as we can out of this month. I agree that later in the winter might be lousy. It’s hard to keep the -PNA at bay for long in Nina years. 

I'd like to know if there is a history with blocky winters and -PNA, I mean have there been winters like this that actually had a late season -NAO.  In 2010-11 our -NAO went away in February.

 

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This is coming together as expected, maybe delayed a couple of hours. If you look SW of here at the Dover radar, you can see some heavier activity there, and banding developing now over NJ/eastern PA. The jet dynamics are on their way north and will enhance things. This will also last well into the evening and night because of the upper air low pushing through. I'm sticking with what I thought last night, which is 5" generally in the city, 6-7" in parts of Suffolk and 3-5" west of the city. Maybe a little bullish given how the QPF has been drying somewhat but we'll see. 

Heavy snow was reported in NE PA.  My sister told me the roads are horrible up there and the visibility is very low.  It's been snowing there all day.