Big Jims Videos Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: One more jog southeast like that, and I'll be back to smoking cirrus (like you told me earlier) back here instead of the 1-3 it was looking like... I lived in NEPA for 7 years. During the holy grail of NJ coastals. I know how this ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Big Jims Videos said: I lived in NEPA for 7 years. During the holy grail of NJ coastals. I know how this ends. Indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: My QPF went up. You do notice that there was a big jump in precip over the Gulf Stream and the drop west of there. Could be feedback, could be the GFS finally finding a nut, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 You do notice that there was a big jump in precip over the Gulf Stream and the drop west of there. Could be feedback, could be the GFS finally finding a nut, who knows.I don't trust the gfs at this range, not that it has performed all that well with this storm. That being said, with short range, hi res models depicting a rather primed and conducive atmosphere, along with the overperforming of down south, I would tend to believe the stronger / more west solutions. I'm also waiting to see what happens with the interactions and if we do get any true latent heat release, we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You do notice that there was a big jump in precip over the Gulf Stream and the drop west of there. Could be feedback, could be the GFS finally finding a nut, who knows. Look at hour 12. Clear blob in the Atlantic that takes away almost all precip to the NW. Very funny looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Shorter range models and observations are the way to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Shorter range models and observations are the way to go at this point.Thought the same thing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Look at hour 12. Clear blob in the Atlantic that takes away almost all precip to the NW. Very funny looking. We’ll see pretty soon if that’s real. The low does look a little SE from the last run. Short range models are better from here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 0Z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 0Z GGEM. Improvement from 12z for NW sections.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 35 minutes ago, Voyager said: Indeed! I don't think these last minute jogs matter that much- often we see more accuracy from the models 24 hours out than 12 (you're not even really supposed to be using them less than 24 hrs out unless you're using the short range models.) My sister in Jim Thorpe is saying they're still expecting about 4 inches of snow. The ratios will be much higher there anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What’s with the trolls tonight? Man o man Yeah we want nice snows for everyone. When I'm headed to the Poconos again in a couple of weeks I want to go skiing and to see a nice mantle of white. Having snow in both of my homes would be ideal, wintry Decembers are a lot more fun than wintry Marches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yeah we want nice snows for everyone. When I'm headed to the Poconos again in a couple of weeks I want to go skiing and to see a nice mantle of white. Having snow in both of my homes would be ideal, wintry Decembers are a lot more fun than wintry Marches. It’ll at least be plenty cold to make snow up there. But agree, nothing like the real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’ll at least be plenty cold to make snow up there. But agree, nothing like the real thing. We always need something to worry about, my worry is I just hope this pattern doesn't come to a screeching halt in January, that would suck. Relax and reload is fine by me, even a 1996-esque January thaw is okay as long as we get some nice action after that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: We always need something to worry about, my worry is I just hope this pattern doesn't come to a screeching halt in January, that would suck. Relax and reload is fine by me, even a 1996-esque January thaw is okay as long as we get some nice action after that too. I agree things look favorable this month for a nice encore or three, hopefully a biggie, but I mostly take things one storm at a time. Awesome patterns are still based on luck at the end in timing to create a storm. They’ve gone bad plenty of times too. Nina winters are mostly good in December in the upper Mid Atlantic, so hopefully we get as much as we can out of this month. I agree that later in the winter might be lousy. It’s hard to keep the -PNA at bay for long in Nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Anyone got ukie yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Anyone got ukie yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, husky0101 said: That should make everyone happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Anyone got ukie yet Looks like 15mm makes it to at least the city but can't tell given the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, swamplover56 said: That should make everyone happy 0z Ukie is 4-6" verbatim up here.. I would take that and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Beat me to the panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z Ukie is 4-6" verbatim up here.. I would take that and run Oh yeah, I'm fine with anything over 2 inches. It's December after all and we know how they have trended in recent years, especially 2015. Amazing to see WSW's and WWA's from the deep south to the northeast, as others have mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Slight differences but euro looks good... last global I cared about.. nowcast/short term time edit: euro looks quite a bit heavier at the coast to me def should be better for coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 .4” all the way to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: .4” all the way to 84 NYC? And is low west or does it look like better banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 It’s pretty much radar tracking from here IMO and short term models. The Euro not backing down is good, but let’s see how everything develops later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just hopping in from the Mid Atlantic forum since it seems most of the people went to sleep or something like that. Euro/Ukie lead me to believe that the GFS was a fluke, and I'm sure some of you may agree with that. From here on out, short range models should be the way to go. I wish most people in the Mid Atlantic forum knew that before giving up on the storm due to a bad GFS run. Anyways, good luck with the snow! Hope you guys can get some good snow bands up your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 00z Euro shows lowest snowfall totals of under 3" and in some cases under 2" over eastern LI in exactly the areas where Upton has winter storm warnings. Expect those warnings to be changed to WWA's by morning. Euro shows highest totals in NY metro over northwest NJ with 5" and arcing to CT, as well as parts of central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 0z Gem-lam Cut back. Enjoy the snow guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 The radar is looking amazing I wouldn’t look at any models anymore. I’d say 4 inches is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.