Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nam looks similar to last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Very similar to 18z Yeah pretty much model noise. Low was actually a bit faster this run, but a better backside as a result of the deeper Northern Stream vort saved the day. NYC still sees 0.50+ liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, NAMed said: Hey, that's my name... But that isn't the "Ace" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Changes at this point will be minor, hopefully from the City on east and north is good for 0.5"+ liquid and parts of LI 0.75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 HRRR depicts quite a long duration event. Map shows storm's progression after 10 or so hours of snow in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALEXA Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Looking at the radar it looks like everything will be south and east of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, ALEXA said: Looking at the radar it looks like everything will be south and east of nyc. The partial phase with the arctic disturbance will pull moisture nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: HRRR depicts quite a long duration event. Map shows storm's progression after 10 or so hours of snow in NYC. All models now depict a large deform band well NW of the cities, I think all are in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: All models now depict a large deform band well NW of the cities, I think all are in good shape Snow for the entire subforum. The best kind of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, ALEXA said: Looking at the radar it looks like everything will be south and east of nyc. Fortunantly, no weather model depicts such an outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Man, nam/rap r pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Here's the previous run...I'm about positive he's just a troll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The partial phase with the arctic disturbance will pull moisture nw I think the Storm Tracking category by Sacrus shows this well. To the west is a dark line that progresses east and begins to tilt NW to SE. If this phases correctly, it should pull it all back in over the NE, or is this just wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: All models now depict a large deform band well NW of the cities, I think all are in good shape Yeah that band keeps showing up stretching from Philly up through North Jersey, lower Hudson Valley, western Connecticut, and up to Worcester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 This is an anafront to a degree so the moisture you see right now is associated with the front. Once the coastal gets going the CCB snows will break out, you will see that come post-2-3am and into day/evening tomorrow. 17 minutes ago, ALEXA said: Looking at the radar it looks like everything will be south and east of nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I think the Storm Tracking category by Sacrus shows this well. To the west is a dark line that progresses east and begins to tilt NW to SE. If this phases correctly, it should pull it all back in over the NE, or is this just wishful thinking. To me it already look like it’s phasing. Look at the precip developing in West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: To me it already look like it’s phasing. Look at the precip developing in West Virginia. We should see it blossom pretty dramatically in the early morning over VA and pivot north as the next southern stream batch of energy rounds the bend and interacts with the northern stream. The snow will hang back for a while tomorrow night as well (light snow) from the northern stream upper level low pivoting through. A little better timing and this could’ve been a monster. But we’ll definitely take a 4-7” snow event in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: We should see it blossom pretty dramatically in the early morning over VA and pivot north as the next southern stream batch of energy rounds the bend and interacts with the northern stream. The snow will hang back for a while tomorrow night as well (light snow) from the northern stream upper level low pivoting through. A little better timing and this could’ve been a monster. But we’ll definitely take a 4-7” snow event in early December. Yes we do take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 RGEM a bit less snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Pretty sexy 500 from the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The blob of convective precip in the Atlantic on the GFS at hr 12 will cause a weenie suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 38 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: To me it already look like it’s phasing. Look at the precip developing in West Virginia. That has more to do with the divergent upper jet streak. I don't see any evidence of vortmax interaction yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 23 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: RGEM a bit less snowy. Check out the new GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 GFS, although changing evolution somewhat, still has 0.5" QPF just west of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Small evolutions aloft at 500mb will make for significant changes at the surface. More interaction 50 miles either way aloft means a storm developing in time and curling north, or a boot east and flatter system. There's still time for the much more amped outcome like the UKMET to happen. Yes. So many people do not realize how close we truly are to a rather significantly stronger storm. Aloft, it's a matter of a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Check out the new GFS My QPF went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Check out the new GFS Looks fine for the majority. I have zero wiggle room up here in the hinterlands but most have no reason to jump ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: On 12/6/2017 at 1:23 PM, jm1220 said: Small evolutions aloft at 500mb will make for significant changes at the surface. More interaction 50 miles either way aloft means a storm developing in time and curling north, or a boot east and flatter system. There's still time for the much more amped outcome like the UKMET to happen. Yes. So many people do not realize how close we truly are to a rather significantly stronger storm. Aloft, it's a matter of a couple hours. This system to me just favored ever so slightly a bullish outcome. How many times have we seen a more amplified outcome in the final 48 hours before an event the last 3-4 winters, and a relatively slight amount more interaction aloft resulted in a nice jump west. Both pieces of energy are quite energetic, would've resulted in a beast with a little better timing. But a beast that would've probably tracked inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 That’s an ugly gfs run for westerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: That’s an ugly gfs run for westerners. One more jog southeast like that, and I'll be back to smoking cirrus (like you told me earlier) back here instead of the 1-3 it was looking like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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