Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Decent cut back. Still advisory level snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Looks like the goalposts are just narrowing instead of a real trend drier. UK was always an amped up/wet model and it’s reverting to the mean. West of 287 might have to watch out for last minute ticks east. Sometimes models overtrend west 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks like the goalposts are just narrowing instead of a real trend drier. UK was always an amped up/wet model and it’s reverting to the mean. West of 287 might have to watch out for last minute ticks east. Sometimes models overtrend west 48 hours out. 12z Ukmet is about 16mm for Brooklyn and Queens. 0z Ukmet was 21mm. That's about a 2" snowfall cutback. Not a biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: Decent cut back. Still advisory level snows you posted thursdays run for the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, The Iceman said: you posted thursdays run for the map This is today's run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 ukie still 4+ well back into PA and 6+ S/E of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: you posted thursdays run for the map It's about the same. And it's annoying bc that site always has issues with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: It's about the same. And it's annoying NC that site always has issues with that. From that site, it's best to save on computer and upload. Copy and pasting has cache issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: From that site, it's best to save on computer and upload. Copy and pasting has cache issues. That's what I do for that exact reason. It says Friday 12z run but the image keeps popping up as Thursday 12z no matter what I do. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Anyone come up with a decent analog for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Anyone come up with a decent analog for this event? post superbowl storm a couple years back? This reminds me of that. That storm was also modeled OTS 2-3 days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 March 5th, 2015 storm. This will be a warmer system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, seanick said: Not sure what this translates to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Not sure what this translates to He's saying that the cutoff will be further east because of the center of the trough over the GLs. Meaning less snow area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Not sure what this translates to His hypothesis is that the greater westward extent of precipitation relative to what was modeled will translate to a farther east extent later. Given the modeled area of lift, I am not sure that hypothesis will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Also anyone find it odd Orange County was the only place left out of WWA... lol... they still say 1-3” but no advisory? Seems odd Doesn't meet the WWA criteria but I agree it is odd. Considering its the first accumulating snow of the season it should have been hoisted. Every piece of guidance suggest O.C is in store for 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: His hypothesis is that the greater westward extent of precipitation relative to what was modeled will translate to a farther east extent later. Given the modeled area of lift, I am not sure that hypothesis will verify. Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: He's saying that the cutoff will be further east because of the center of the trough over the GLs. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Euro is further west Has 4-8 inches for NYC with more down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is further west Has 4-8 inches for NYC with more down south. That's a good event for early December. Where do I sign? From here on out its all about the short range models and radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 OPC says right thru the Benchmark.... good luck with your totals... DM the snow miser LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, seanick said: Crankys been back peddling for 24 hours...he was condescendingly insulting others for being attracted to this event.......his call was 0 impact 1 day ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is further west Has 4-8 inches for NYC with more down south. Don’t even need to see the EPS. This is locked in IMO for I-95 east. The only question I have is NW of the city (i.e. west of 287), I can see that edge getting cut back, other than that, I think it’s a done deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Crankys been back peddling for 24 hours...he was condescendingly insulting others for being attracted to this event.......his call was 0 impact 1 day ago he does this every time. he busted huge on 1/7/17 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, SnowBlitzkrieg said: he does this every time. he busted huge on 1/7/17 last year. He’s smart but I’m not a fan....to full of himself for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The 4"+ mark on the Euro extends back to the DE River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Crankys been back peddling for 24 hours...he was condescendingly insulting others for being attracted to this event.......his call was 0 impact 1 day ago He busted pretty bad and he did get pissy with a few people. Before 12z yesterday, he was on the 0 accumulation train. He normally is pretty accurate though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: He’s smart but I’m not a fan....to full of himself for my liking This. I don't care how good a weather met or hobbyist thinks they are everyone is susceptible to being wrong every now and then but some just can't handle it when they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Orange County ftw on euro lol imagine upton issues advisory for everyone BUT Orange County and Harriman gets like 6” lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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