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December 9th 2017 Crusha or brusha?


WeatherFeen2000

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Over here (LI) from the U.K. found this site after wanting to check the weather for the weekend. What an excellent forum, some very knowledgeable people on it. I don’t understand the charts, but just love weather (snow junky as well). Keep up the good informative postings, helping people like me understand the weather.  Thanks

Amazing where it is snowing this morning in the US of A... all the way to the gulf coast and south Texas...

85b085deb18f85a87d1a9d3f4878a12c.jpg

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I gotta tell ya there’s some insane lift happening, I wouldn’t be shocked to see accumulating snows well N+W... my current thoughts

5-10 eastern LI/ SECT

4-8 coastal sections/NYC/W Long Island

3-6” 84 to coast

1-3” north of 84 with a sharp gradient to flurries 

 

I am thinking there will be more north of 84, especially Dutchess with 3-5 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's close to the new record.

Upcoming ~110 m/s jet over Newfoundland and western N Atlantic on 10 DEC could set the 250-hPa wind speed record for that location (1979-2016 CFSR), w/ 250-hPa standardized wind speed anomalies >4σ. pic.twitter.com/zfzu4FQrPn
View photo ·    

Coulda been one of the all time greats...it’s a remarkable system for not even phasing, at least not fully 

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23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I gotta tell ya there’s some insane lift happening, I wouldn’t be shocked to see accumulating snows well N+W... my current thoughts

5-10 eastern LI/ SECT

4-8 coastal sections/NYC/W Long Island

3-6” 84 to coast

1-3” north of 84 with a sharp gradient to flurries 

 

12z NAM lowered snowfalls a bit versus 6z run.

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11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Coulda been one of the all time greats...it’s a remarkable system for not even phasing, at least not fully 

Yeah, the southern vort hung back just a little too much. But this is the risk we run with such a strong -EPO and a La Nina with a neutral or positive NAO. That's why I always prefer a raging STJ and El Nino in situations like this for a much earlier phase and neg tilt.

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Just now, Animal said:

Are you suggesting we use the snowiest model with the highest qpf.

No , you use a blend of the Euro/Ukmet/GFS.  These mesoscale models fluctuate quite significantly at the event draws near.  The 6Z GFS was a 4-8 inch snowfall for NYC. 

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Well, well... things have changed quite dramatically in the last 24 hours. 

The improvement is because we now have enough wave spacing between the Southern shortwave which is where our storm is coming from and the Northern piece dropping down the backside. So instead of essentially weakening and shearing out the initial shortwave, the trailing energy is feeding into the trough and enhancing the jet. 

Whomever is lucky enough to get under the strongest forcing will likely see a several hour period of heavy snow, however I think there could be some fairly significant subsidence to the West and East of wherever this band sets up, so it will come down to nowcasting.

I like a general 2-4", with a swath of 4-8" occurring under whomever ends up under that band.

Wouldn't even be shocked to see some thundersnow, this has developed into quite the dynamic system.

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34 minutes ago, swamplover56 said:

12k nam cut back snow totals pretty significantly for northern and western areas

Model Noise...

 

.1” difference mostly

 

wouldnt read too much into outputs now, that raging 250 and immense lift will get us our NW Expansion... also north and west should benifit from decent ratios

47317DCB-BCAF-44A1-A128-F666E4206524.gif

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem held steady from 6z

 

4-8 for NYC 

I think temperatures hold right around the freezing mark in the city and perhaps 33-34 on the South shore of Suffolk. I think the far East end could see a little mixing, but it should be all snow or mostly snow for just about everyone which is pretty remarkable for December 9th.

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In this type of event, a prolonged daytime snow (even with the very low sun angle we currently have) with middling temps hovering around 32 it''ll not be a solid, traffic-snarling highway accumulation type snowfall would it? I'd think it'd be a little tough for major roads to become totally snow-covered given the factors (rate, daytime, traffic, etc). Am I totally wrong? 

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Model Noise...

 

.1” difference mostly

 

wouldnt read too much into outputs now, that raging 250 and immense lift will get us our NW Expansion... also north and west should benifit from decent ratios

47317DCB-BCAF-44A1-A128-F666E4206524.gif

Where the back edge of the QPF is didn’t really change much. Just the in-between gradient. Disregarding the QPF the NAM looked great. 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

In this type of event, a prolonged daytime snow (even with the very low sun angle we currently have) with middling temps hovering around 32 it''ll not be a solid, traffic-snarling highway accumulation type snowfall would it? I'd think it'd be a little tough for major roads to become totally snow-covered given the factors (rate, daytime, traffic, etc). Am I totally wrong? 

Temperature rarely matters if snow is coming down at a decent clip. Chances are we'll be between 30 and 32 and roads will get plenty covered

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