tdenzler Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Over here (LI) from the U.K. found this site after wanting to check the weather for the weekend. What an excellent forum, some very knowledgeable people on it. I don’t understand the charts, but just love weather (snow junky as well). Keep up the good informative postings, helping people like me understand the weather. ThanksAmazing where it is snowing this morning in the US of A... all the way to the gulf coast and south Texas... Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I know it’s expirmentsl and way out of range, but a good sign nonetheless ... long range HRRR is really close to coast. City gets crushed...SECT could see a foot on that... and plowable snows make it to Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 NAM is quicker, and by radar I wouldn't be surprised if there are mood flakes around midnight. Edit, NAM really isn't any faster and may be a bit less amped thru 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I gotta tell ya there’s some insane lift happening, I wouldn’t be shocked to see accumulating snows well N+W... my current thoughts 5-10 eastern LI/ SECT 4-8 coastal sections/NYC/W Long Island 3-6” 84 to coast 1-3” north of 84 with a sharp gradient to flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I gotta tell ya there’s some insane lift happening, I wouldn’t be shocked to see accumulating snows well N+W... my current thoughts 5-10 eastern LI/ SECT 4-8 coastal sections/NYC/W Long Island 3-6” 84 to coast 1-3” north of 84 with a sharp gradient to flurries I am thinking there will be more north of 84, especially Dutchess with 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wow... That's close to the new record. Upcoming ~110 m/s jet over Newfoundland and western N Atlantic on 10 DEC could set the 250-hPa wind speed record for that location (1979-2016 CFSR), w/ 250-hPa standardized wind speed anomalies >4σ. pic.twitter.com/zfzu4FQrPn View photo · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: That's close to the new record. Upcoming ~110 m/s jet over Newfoundland and western N Atlantic on 10 DEC could set the 250-hPa wind speed record for that location (1979-2016 CFSR), w/ 250-hPa standardized wind speed anomalies >4σ. pic.twitter.com/zfzu4FQrPn View photo · Coulda been one of the all time greats...it’s a remarkable system for not even phasing, at least not fully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Coulda been one of the all time greats...it’s a remarkable system for not even phasing, at least not fully What does this mean for the hobbyists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I gotta tell ya there’s some insane lift happening, I wouldn’t be shocked to see accumulating snows well N+W... my current thoughts 5-10 eastern LI/ SECT 4-8 coastal sections/NYC/W Long Island 3-6” 84 to coast 1-3” north of 84 with a sharp gradient to flurries 12z NAM lowered snowfalls a bit versus 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, rogue said: 12z NAM lowered snowfalls a bit versus 6z run. It’s been very inconsistent . Focus on the globals for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Coulda been one of the all time greats...it’s a remarkable system for not even phasing, at least not fully Yeah, the southern vort hung back just a little too much. But this is the risk we run with such a strong -EPO and a La Nina with a neutral or positive NAO. That's why I always prefer a raging STJ and El Nino in situations like this for a much earlier phase and neg tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The QPF is noise at this point. Looks like a solid 3-6” event for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: It’s been very inconsistent . Focus on the globals for now Are you suggesting we use the snowiest model with the highest qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12k nam cut back snow totals pretty significantly for northern and western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, swamplover56 said: 12k nam cut back snow totals pretty significantly for northern and western areas Yeah big time. Probably just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Animal said: Are you suggesting we use the snowiest model with the highest qpf. No , you use a blend of the Euro/Ukmet/GFS. These mesoscale models fluctuate quite significantly at the event draws near. The 6Z GFS was a 4-8 inch snowfall for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah big time. Probably just noise The trend is not your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah big time. Probably just noise Cut in half actually north of the Driscoll down to 2-3 from 4-6 on the 6 z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Cut in half actually north of the Driscoll down to 2-3 from 4-6 on the 6 z Yeah. 3km looks a little better, general 3 to 5 and snow shield is further west. But the heaviest stays in South Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Well, well... things have changed quite dramatically in the last 24 hours. The improvement is because we now have enough wave spacing between the Southern shortwave which is where our storm is coming from and the Northern piece dropping down the backside. So instead of essentially weakening and shearing out the initial shortwave, the trailing energy is feeding into the trough and enhancing the jet. Whomever is lucky enough to get under the strongest forcing will likely see a several hour period of heavy snow, however I think there could be some fairly significant subsidence to the West and East of wherever this band sets up, so it will come down to nowcasting. I like a general 2-4", with a swath of 4-8" occurring under whomever ends up under that band. Wouldn't even be shocked to see some thundersnow, this has developed into quite the dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Rgem held steady from 6z 4-8 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 34 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: 12k nam cut back snow totals pretty significantly for northern and western areas Model Noise... .1” difference mostly wouldnt read too much into outputs now, that raging 250 and immense lift will get us our NW Expansion... also north and west should benifit from decent ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem held steady from 6z 4-8 for NYC I think temperatures hold right around the freezing mark in the city and perhaps 33-34 on the South shore of Suffolk. I think the far East end could see a little mixing, but it should be all snow or mostly snow for just about everyone which is pretty remarkable for December 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Rgem/Ukmet blend is deadly. Anyone's weighted model average should heavily lean on that combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 In this type of event, a prolonged daytime snow (even with the very low sun angle we currently have) with middling temps hovering around 32 it''ll not be a solid, traffic-snarling highway accumulation type snowfall would it? I'd think it'd be a little tough for major roads to become totally snow-covered given the factors (rate, daytime, traffic, etc). Am I totally wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem held steady from 6z 4-8 for NYC Actually slightly raised totals for LI.. .75 line make it to mid Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Model Noise... .1” difference mostly wouldnt read too much into outputs now, that raging 250 and immense lift will get us our NW Expansion... also north and west should benifit from decent ratios Where the back edge of the QPF is didn’t really change much. Just the in-between gradient. Disregarding the QPF the NAM looked great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, canderson said: In this type of event, a prolonged daytime snow (even with the very low sun angle we currently have) with middling temps hovering around 32 it''ll not be a solid, traffic-snarling highway accumulation type snowfall would it? I'd think it'd be a little tough for major roads to become totally snow-covered given the factors (rate, daytime, traffic, etc). Am I totally wrong? Temperature rarely matters if snow is coming down at a decent clip. Chances are we'll be between 30 and 32 and roads will get plenty covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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