MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ukie also has next week's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie also has next week's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Rjay, I’m pretty damn good at model maps...I’m yet to get a close up of ukie totals... and does anyone know y wxbell doesn’t carry ukie..been that way forever Meteocentre and wx.graphics should have them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Bookmark these for the Ukie http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest Main model page for meteocentre http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ Main page for wx.graphics http://wx.graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The Euro is .4-.5 (4-5" of snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 34 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro is .4-.5 (4-5" of snow) It shows around 0.60" for EWR and NYC between 12z and 0z (Saturday morning to evening). POU is 0.51" for the same timeframe and around 0.60" for a storm total and BDR is 0.54" for the 12-hour period (near 0.60" total). The storm total for EWR and NYC is near 0.70". Overall, it would be a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Beat me to it lol.http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ079&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ079&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NW%20Manorville%20NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=40.8846&lon=-72.8252#.WipWactOngA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, seanick said: Yea see watches south central nj for 3-6 2-4 wwa immediate counties heading west from the city. 4-6 for the city. In my area for county. mt holly nws is forecasting "a light accumulation" which is 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 This morning both the GFS and 12k NAM matched the UKMET by bring . 75 very close to NYC. Look to see if the models can bump that N of you at 12z, you have a shot. Here in CNJ the overall guidance is for .75 with the UKIE bringing the 1 inch line right onto the NJ coastline All in all this is a great 1st event even for the areas to our N and W where cloudy skies were expected by " some " just 2 days ago Now in the medium range on day 5 another SW will dig around the base of the trough , the UKMET is the most aggressive with this feature and would bring another moderate snow event to the area on Tuesday. The Euro exits the SW south of us and bombs this out at the BM , that would still be a decent event here but a major event in New England. In the end there should be 2 accumulating snow events in a 4 day period before Dec 15 in NYC. So much for those dry weekly maps that were being humped in here. I will stop there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: This morning both the GFS and 12k NAM matched the UKMET by bring . 75 very close but just S to NYC. Look to see if the models can bump that N of you at 12z, you have a shot. Here in CNJ the overall guidance is for .75 with the UKIE bringing the 1 inch line right onto the NJ coastline All in all this is a great 1st event even for the areas to our N and W where cloudy skies were expected by " some " just 2 days ago Now in the medium range on day 5 another SW will dig around the base of the trough , the UKMET is the most aggressive with this feature and would bring another moderate snow event to the area on Tuesday. The Euro exits the SW south of us and bombs this out at the BM , that would still be a decent event here but a major event in New England. In the end there should be 2 accumulating snow events in a 4 day period before Dec 15 in NYC. So much for those dry weekly maps that were being humped in here. I will stop there. We just need to keep the mix line away now. Another great thing is we will have an all daytime snow event in December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Winter storm Benji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Gefs shifted more west and now looks pretty similar to the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 https://digital.weather.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Gfs has around 6-7 inches for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Narly a flake..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:59 PM, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Has been for awhile if you are looking aloft and forecasting, not humping colors with a magnifying glass on the navgem or eps. Pattern recognition, knowing your locale, experience with similar setups. This one never argued nary a flake. Right now it’s a beach ball, rim looks like a manhole. Ride it. Watch the 17-18th, 13th always been a late bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Poor guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I know Upton can be conservative, but 2-4 in NYC seems a bit low per most guidance no? Not sure why they would rather play catch up. Nonetheless, def excited for tomorrow’s potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Some statistics for reference: AO-/PNA+ during 12/8-18/1981-2010 (127 days) vs. 12/8-18/1981-2010 Base Period (330 days): ● Accounted for 57% of all days with measurable snowfall ● Accounted for 67% of all days on which 1” or more snow fell ● Accounted for 75% of all days on which 2” or more snow fell AO-/PNA+ during 12/8-18/1981-2010 (127 days) vs. 12/8-18/1981-2010 Base Period (330 days): ● Days with measurable snowfall were 48% more likely than for the base period as a whole ● Days with 1” or more snowfall were 73% more likely than for the base period as a whole ● Days with 2” or more snowfall were 95% more likely than for the base period as a whole AO-/PNA+ during 12/8-18/1981-2010 (127 days) vs. All days without AO-/PNA+ 12/8-18/1981-2010 (203 days): ● Days with measurable snowfall were 113% more likely than for days without an AO-/PNA+ ● Days with 1” or more snowfall were 220% more likely than for days without an AO-/PNA+ ● Days with 2” or more snowfall were 380% more likely than for days without an AO-/PNA+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It shows around 0.60" for EWR and NYC between 12z and 0z (Saturday morning to evening). POU is 0.51" for the same timeframe and around 0.60" for a storm total and BDR is 0.54" for the 12-hour period (near 0.60" total). The storm total for EWR and NYC is near 0.70". Overall, it would be a nice event. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The NWS usually doesn't make large adjustments when it comes to snowfall amounts but usually gradual smaller increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Depending on how things play out on the 12z model runs it would not surprise me at all if this winds up being a widespread 6-10" snowfall for the metro area. Right now I am liking the 3-6" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Hmm This is interesting. I wonder if the maps take 0.5X" and only show 0.5" even if the figure is closer to 0.6" e.g., 0.57"? In any case, the general idea of a 3"-6" snowfall across the region on the ECMWF doesn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Depending on how things play out on the 12z model runs it would not surprise me at all if this winds up being a widespread 6-10" snowfall for the metro area. Right now I am liking the 3-6" range. Mt. Holly has taken into account that ratios could be 8:1 or lower versus the standard. I think 3-6" is most likely especially if models bump up precip a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: This is interesting. I wonder if the maps take 0.5X" and only show 0.5" even if the figure is closer to 0.6" e.g., 0.57"? In any case, the general idea of a 3"-6" snowfall across the region on the ECMWF doesn't change. I've never seen such a disconnect between products for the same model output. Anyway, like you said, it's all the same in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 As they say, first bring the cold, the snow usually follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I've never seen such a disconnect between products for the same model output. Anyway, like you said, it's all the same in the end. The difference is interesting. Hopefully, it's not a recurrent theme. After all, if one were dealing with a high ratio snowfall, even small differences could have a large impact on the final forecast amounts. I'm looking forward to tomorrow's snowfall (5-year old is, too, and is already talking about building a snowman). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SKYMAN Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Over here (LI) from the U.K. found this site after wanting to check the weather for the weekend. What an excellent forum, some very knowledgeable people on it. I don’t understand the charts, but just love weather (snow junky as well). Keep up the good informative postings, helping people like me understand the weather. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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