Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This run is a lot better than 18z Low further west and bigger precip shield Yes. Even NW NJ get decent snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM is a very nice event areawide. Verbatim it has 3-6" areawide by 0z Sunday. 6" in Suffolk County and 3" well north and west, and there's still a good amount left. The rain/mix is held just offshore. The mixing doesn't seem to make it on land anywhere besides maybe the twin forks due to northerly winds-it's not driven by the low being too close or warm mid levels. We all should be fine besides those areas as long as winds stay northerly, which keeps cold air flowing in. The low itself looks fairly strung out and headed near the benchmark. The high res NAM on the other hand does bring a warm layer in at around 750mb for eastern Suffolk, that would likely mean sleet mixing in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yes. Even NW NJ get decent snows That’s a great sign. We want snow modeled well to the west at this juncture. That gives me confidence that a scraper is less likely and it’s legit time to lock and load! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS significant move west, other models stagnant so far, all in agreement for a 2-4/3-6 type deal it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS is 6-8" for the City on east, no mixing problems anywhere, even well east it looks like. 3-6" everywhere else west of I-95. I'm thinking if the Euro follows suit later, watches get hoisted at least near the coast and for the city. Although this may be a longer length system where it doesn't make it to 8" in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s a great sign. We want snow modeled well to the west at this juncture. That gives me confidence that a scraper is less likely and it’s legit time to lock and load! I agree and given the orientation of the wind I'm not concerned with mixing unless it were to really come west and given the trough I doubt it can come much west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: GFS is 6-8" for the City on east, no mixing problems anywhere, even well east it looks like. 3-6" everywhere else west of I-95. I'm thinking if the Euro follows suit later, watches get hoisted at least near the coast and for the city. Although this may be a longer length system where it doesn't make it to 8" in 24 hours. Yeah, doesn't really meet criteria but we'v seen WSW for 4-7/ 4-8"" before. They may just go straght to warnings after 12z suite if it's looking good. But it is a weekend so idk if they would be as inclined to go WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Is that enhanced snowfall in far northern nj the model picking up on upslopingnenhancement due to mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Yeah, doesn't really meet criteria but we'v seen WSW for 4-7/ 4-8"" before. They may just go straght to warnings after 12z suite if it's looking good. But it is a weekend so idk if they would be as inclined to go WSW.4-7/4-8" meets criteria, because criteria is 6". The Avg of 4-8" is 6" and the Avg of 4-7" is 5.5" which rounds up to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, doesn't really meet criteria but we'v seen WSW for 4-7/ 4-8"" before. They may just go straght to warnings after 12z suite if it's looking good. But it is a weekend so idk if they would be as inclined to go WSW. 4-7/4-8" meets criteria, because criteria is 6". The Avg of 4-8" is 6" and the Avg of 4-7" is 5.5" which rounds up to 6". In 12 hours. This would be borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, doesn't really meet criteria but we'v seen WSW for 4-7/ 4-8"" before. They may just go straght to warnings after 12z suite if it's looking good. But it is a weekend so idk if they would be as inclined to go WSW. 4-7/4-8" meets criteria, because criteria is 6". The Avg of 4-8" is 6" and the Avg of 4-7" is 5.5" which rounds up to 6". Since it’s the first event of the winter I wouldn’t be surprised if they went with wsw from the city east. I’ve noticed over the past couple of years if it’s early in the winter and there’s a really cold morning with bad black ice they’ll issue a winter weather advisory just to put extra emphasis to the public to be careful. This has the same kind of ability of surprising the public. Though ultimately it’s just semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Since it’s the first event of the winter I wouldn’t be surprised if they went with wsw from the city east. I’ve noticed over the past couple of years if it’s early in the winter and there’s a really cold morning with bad black ice they’ll issue a winter weather advisory just to put extra emphasis to the public to be careful. This has the same kind of ability of surprising the public. Though ultimately it’s just semantics. This is definitely a factor also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, jm1220 said: GFS is 6-8" for the City on east, no mixing problems anywhere, even well east it looks like. 3-6" everywhere else west of I-95. I'm thinking if the Euro follows suit later, watches get hoisted at least near the coast and for the city. Although this may be a longer length system where it doesn't make it to 8" in 24 hours. Is this a storm that could exceed 24 hrs in length? Having the mix line so close and yet not make it onshore reminds me of December 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I can't believe there are no Watches and or warnings in NC/VA/DE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Is this a storm that could exceed 24 hrs in length? Having the mix line so close and yet not make it onshore reminds me of December 2003 Looks like a 12-16 hour storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ukie has a 999 low very close to the NJ coast at 42 hours and then 996 low right on the benchmark at 48 hours Further west than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie has a 999 low very close to the NJ coast at 42 hours and then 996 low right on the benchmark at 48 hours Further west than the 12z run QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Ericjcrash said: QPF? Nothing yet but it looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie has a 999 low very close to the NJ coast at 42 hours and then 996 low right on the benchmark at 48 hours Further west than the 12z run Almost sounds too close for comfort, no? Kinda surprised it would then shoot out to the perfect spot aka the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Almost sounds too close for comfort, no? Yes but NJ looks to stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes but NJ looks to stay all snow Got to love the wind direction. I imagine mixing issues would make it to at least suffolk though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Got to love the wind direction. I imagine mixing issues would make it to at least suffolk though. But if the low is where Ant says it is, they probably have (well)over an inch of liquid to work with the further E you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 UKMET looks like around 6 for NYC at a rough glance. It seems as you get more NE into CT its higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ukie has about 6-10 inches of snow for our area The track is great for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just now, Ericjcrash said: But if the low is where Ant says it is, they probably have (well)over an inch of liquid to work with the further E you go. Just got to look at the panels myself, ya its very juicy. Personally i prefer the cement paste vs the fluff type snow anyways so i'll take the uk to the bank any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GEFS is a general .5-.75" of liquid, less west of roughly 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie has about 6-10 inches of snow for our area The track is great for our area Strange, most of our local forecasts have far less for the area. I guess they will be playing catch up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12 hour panels on the Ukie (didn't even know this was an option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Rjay, I’m pretty damn good at model maps...I’m yet to get a close up of ukie totals... and does anyone know y wxbell doesn’t carry ukie..been that way forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Just need to see the Euro agree with the Ukie and everything will work out. This feels like a solid advisory event to even a borderline warning storm, and it's likely going to stick around for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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