Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:40 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Orange County ftw on euro lol imagine upton issues advisory for everyone BUT Orange County and Harriman gets like 6” lol Expand I recall 12/5/2002 storm doing that. Only advisories were up in the northern areas and they did the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:40 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Orange County ftw on euro lol imagine upton issues advisory for everyone BUT Orange County and Harriman gets like 6” lol Expand Has a good lollipop over eastern Sussex county nj too!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I wouldn't be a bit surprised if it was snowing in parts of the NYC metro before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:40 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Orange County ftw on euro lol imagine upton issues advisory for everyone BUT Orange County and Harriman gets like 6” lol Expand The majority of Orange County should stay below the threshold minimum for an advisory. This could be the type of setup where Tuxedo, which is technically Orange County receives 5-6" and Port Jervis receives barely over an inch. They are right on the edge of the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Suffolk stays above freezing for the whole event on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:47 PM, Rtd208 said: I wouldn't be a bit surprised if it was snowing in parts of the NYC metro before midnight. Expand I'd say between 3 and 6 am south to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ed Valle just posted a ratio map... 10:1 for most.. 13:1 around 84 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The 17z HRRR has over 5" in Cape May by 11z tomorrow morning. I wouldn't expect much to be falling around here before 10-11AM and it should remain very light until afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:48 PM, NJwx85 said: The majority of Orange County should stay below the threshold minimum for an advisory. This could be the type of setup where Tuxedo, which is technically Orange County receives 5-6" and Port Jervis receives barely over an inch. They are right on the edge of the cutoff. Expand Most models push 3-4” as far north as my house... can’t see leaving OC out of advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:48 PM, NJwx85 said: The majority of Orange County should stay below the threshold minimum for an advisory. This could be the type of setup where Tuxedo, which is technically Orange County receives 5-6" and Port Jervis receives barely over an inch. They are right on the edge of the cutoff. Expand Most guidance gives all of O.C at least advisory level snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:53 PM, NJwx85 said: The 17z HRRR has over 5" in Cape May by 11z tomorrow morning. I wouldn't expect much to be falling around here before 10-11AM and it should remain very light until afternoon. Expand Yea, probably very light until around 10 or so, it probably really gets going after that, winds down to snow showers tomorrow evening. I think Upton is going to have to adjust accumulations higher north and west of NYC this evening. Very unlikely that the Euro is wrong this close in. It looks like a general 3-6 inch plowable snow tomorrow, even up into Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:54 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most models push 3-4” as far north as my house... can’t see leaving OC out of advisory Expand Maybe Upton will post advisories for us in the afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:54 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Most models push 3-4” as far north as my house... can’t see leaving OC out of advisory Expand FWIW Sussex and Warren Counties were left out of the advisory too. You have to remember that it's not just about the nominal forecast but it's with regards to max potential and confidence that the NWS has with regards to reaching the max potential. In the end, it's up to the discretion of that particular forecaster. In this case, it's clear that Upton collaborated with Mt. Holly with regards to the Western extend of the advisory and forecasters can still expand the extent of the advisory area later tonight if warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:40 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Orange County ftw on euro lol imagine upton issues advisory for everyone BUT Orange County and Harriman gets like 6” lol Expand On 12/8/2017 at 6:45 PM, Animal said: Has a good lollipop over eastern Sussex county nj too!!!! Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:01 PM, snywx said: Most guidance gives all of O.C at least advisory level snows Expand While I agree, as I just mentioned, they can expand the advisories North and West later tonight if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:04 PM, NJwx85 said: While I agree, as I just mentioned, they can expand the advisories North and West later tonight if needed. Expand I agree.. I just think initially their confidence wasn't so high. Im pretty sure that has changed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 I don’t understand why they’re always so conservative. It’s a Saturday people shouldn’t be driving anyway just stay home and enjoy the snow. Especially in nyc I think a winter storm warning is warranted with up to 6 inches. I’d say a general 4-8 for nyc they have 2-4 no model shows that and this system is becoming dynamic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:06 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: I don’t understand why they’re always so conservative. It’s a Saturday people shouldn’t be driving anyway just stay home and enjoy the snow. Especially in nyc I think a winter storm warning is warranted with up to 6 inches. I’d say a general 4-8 for nyc Expand I'll be driving-it's xmas sesaon and there's stuff to do and kids sports in the morning...most won't stay home for a a few inches of snow that falls over 12 hrs -would think most highways will be just wet with all the chemicals these days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 You can clearly see the game changer on the 12z Euro as the jet intensifies on Saturday afternoon thanks to the injection of energy from the Northern shortwave, as opposed to the solution from Wednesday which showed weakening dynamics aloft. I know that this image is difficult to see, but watch how that 500mb jet just explodes, the heavy snow will develop right on the nose of those strong winds aloft. After the nose of the strong jet passess overhead, snow should tapper quickly as the strongest dynamics move into New England and the dry air on the backside takes over. The biggest thump should occur between 15 and 21z or between 10AM and 4PM from South to North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 6:40 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Orange County ftw on euro lol imagine upton issues advisory for everyone BUT Orange County and Harriman gets like 6” lol Expand They can't even accurately predict my temp this afternoon as I am stuck at 30 and afternoon forecast is for 39 with a heavy overcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:18 PM, West Mtn NY said: They can't even accurately predict my temp this afternoon as I am stuck at 30 and afternoon forecast is for 39 with a heavy overcast Expand How about that fog the other day... epic fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:19 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: How about that fog the other day... epic fail Expand Didn't lift in the valley until almost dark. You came up the hill on 6 and you went from 37 and fog to 47 and sunny. At West Point it was fog by trophy point and sun at Michie Stadium. Wicked inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:14 PM, NJwx85 said: You can clearly see the game changer on the 12z Euro as the jet intensifies on Saturday afternoon thanks to the injection of energy from the Northern shortwave, as opposed to the solution from Wednesday which showed weakening dynamics aloft. I know that this image is difficult to see, but watch how that 500mb jet just explodes, the heavy snow will develop right on the nose of those strong winds aloft. After the nose of the strong jet passess overhead, snow should tapper quickly as the strongest dynamics move into New England and the dry air on the backside takes over. The biggest thump should occur between 15 and 21z or between 10AM and 4PM from South to North. Expand Perfect timing for maximum daytime impact So heavy snow for about 6 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 EPS mean and control are nearly identical... locked... 3-5” area wide isolated higher amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Let's not bash the NWS offices as they are overworked, underfunded and underappreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:44 PM, Rjay said: Let's not bash the NWS offices as they are overworked, underfunded and underappreciated. Expand It is amazing what they are able to do under such difficult circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:35 PM, Paragon said: Perfect timing for maximum daytime impact So heavy snow for about 6 hours? Expand It probably starts off very light around 7am or so. It looks like 10am to 4pm for the steady/heavier snow then it shuts down very quickly thereafter. Some left over snow showers and flurries tomorrow evening with clearing overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:44 PM, Rjay said: Let's not bash the NWS offices as they are overworked, underfunded and underappreciated. Expand This isn't anywhere close to an exact science so bashing is completely not necessary. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:50 PM, snowman19 said: It probably starts off very light around 7am or so. It looks like 10am to 4pm for the steady/heavier snow then it shuts down very quickly thereafter. Some left over snow showers and flurries tomorrow evening with clearing overnight Expand There might be snow that hangs back due to the upper air low coming through. That would probably be showery snow. The heaviest would likely be in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 7:50 PM, snowman19 said: It probably starts off very light around 7am or so. It looks like 10am to 4pm for the steady/heavier snow then it shuts down very quickly thereafter. Some left over snow showers and flurries tomorrow evening with clearing overnight Expand Sounds perfect, and hopefully some clearing overnight so moonlight can sparkle on the freshly fallen snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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