Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 2:35 AM, rogue said: It's east and strung out. Halves snowfall amounts west of NYC and down overall elsewhere. Expand Eh it's one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Pay attention to the upper air pattern over the surface precip panels. The NAM especially overdoes it sometimes. This won’t be a major storm for anyone, maybe it can hit warning criteria in places if it works out with banding and abundant moisture. If I had to guess I’d go with 3-6” from the city east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hi Res Nam is a lot better than the regular Nam It is also warmer in eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 2:41 AM, Snow88 said: Hi Res Nam is a lot better than the regular Nam It is also warmer in eastern LIIt all comes down to the upper air and placement of the n/s and its interaction. The trough is not oriented as well as we would like so therefore this is thread the needle situation. As such, solutions back and forth are very likely, especially as our n/s is not fully sampled yet. Deep breath everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 2:41 AM, Snow88 said: Hi Res Nam is a lot better than the regular Nam It is also warmer in eastern LI Expand High resolution is almost always better. you are getting worked up over 2-3 or 3 to 5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 2:46 AM, Animal said: High resolution is almost always better. you are getting worked up over 2-3 or 3 to 5 inches of snow. Expand It’s the first snow of the season, hopefully everyone hits the ground running. I’m really not worried about mixing outside the twin forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I'll take my 6" snowfall and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM is coming in great for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 2:32 AM, SnoSki14 said: It could still whiff if that northern stream system doesn't cooperate. The trough orientation was never ideal, but it's also the Nam. Expand What are you stooges talking about , H5 is better than 18z It's high res looks like the gassed up RGEM Bro , you are a hard day after day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 A BRUSHA that will CRUSHA 9 out of 10 weenie hearts in the Metro Final Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 RGEM is about a 16 hour event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Damn that RGEM gets the R/S line at 48 to almost Sandy Hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:19 AM, Snow88 said: RGEM is about a 16 hour event Expand And less impressive than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:24 AM, Ericjcrash said: And less impressive than 18z. Expand What ? It's great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:24 AM, Ericjcrash said: And less impressive than 18z. Expand If you think 3-6 inches is less impressive for a storm that was never meant to be a blockbuster in the first place...then I don’t know what to tell you. It’s early December and a modest snowfall looks likely for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:25 AM, Snow88 said: What ? It's great Expand Slightly Less QPF, precip shield doesnt extend as far west. Still good, but not quite as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:23 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Damn that RGEM gets the R/S line at 48 to almost Sandy HookLet's not start this again rgem....*flashes back to blizzard last year that never was* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:28 AM, Ericjcrash said: Slightly Less QPF, precip shield doesnt extend as far west. Still good, but not quite as good. Expand 3-5 isn't good? Come on man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:24 AM, Ericjcrash said: And less impressive than 18z.Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:27 AM, Neblizzard said: If you think 3-6 inches is less impressive for a storm that was never meant to be a blockbuster in the first place...then I don’t know what to tell you. It’s early December and a modest snowfall looks likely for the metro Expand All I said it was less impressive in comparison to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:29 AM, USCG RS said: On 12/8/2017 at 3:23 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Damn that RGEM gets the R/S line at 48 to almost Sandy Hook Expand Let's not start this again rgem....*flashes back to blizzard last year that never was* Expand I think its just picking up on coastal NJ seeing rain. Coastal NJ with a 020-050 wind is a different world in early December than NYC/LI with a 020-050 wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:29 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: On 12/8/2017 at 3:24 AM, Ericjcrash said: And less impressive than 18z. Expand Wut? Expand What do you mean What? Yes it' just noise, but it was a simple comment referencing the 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:30 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I think its just picking up on coastal NJ seeing rain. Coastal NJ with a 020-050 wind is a different world in early December than NYC/LI with a 020-050 windVery true brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:30 AM, Ericjcrash said: All I said it was less impressive in comparison to the 18z run. Expand Ugh I'm in the middle of something but the rgem snowmap ticked up everywhere from 18z to oz just s fyiFYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 GFS has a better precip shield and the low is slightly west at hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:33 AM, swamplover56 said: Ugh I'm in the middle of something but the rgem snowmap ticked up everywhere from 18z to oz just s fyiFYI Expand Uh huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:36 AM, Ericjcrash said: Uh huh. Expand That's only through 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 This run is a lot better than 18z Low further west and bigger precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 On 12/8/2017 at 3:40 AM, Stormlover74 said: That's only through 18z Expand Right. The same timestamp 18z run ended. Lower numbers. Can't compare 6 hours extra time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Gfs is 4-8 western areas do much better beautiful run for almost everyone in this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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