WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Models have been trending towards a low forming on the arctic boundary and riding it up the coast. The cmc is the most robust and now the ukmet and navgem have been decently robust. These models are showing warning snows even into NYC area. Nam is decent with at least advisory snows but GFS has been a whiff and so has been the euro. Let’s discuss the future models here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 It's been a long time since last snow. I want a crusha damnit! #weenieModeON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NYC will get 6.5" UK west, Euro to follow as per tradition. Somehow this will deliver despite a rather ugly trough. If the GGEM verifies it would be an interesting storm on the NESIS scale, snow from New Orleans to Maine, Atlanta buried by their standards. Obviously the 6.5" figure Is purely speculative and has no reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 The interaction between the southern S/W and northern stream on Sat PM/Sunday will be key. If little interaction, it gets kicked out like the GFS. The GGEM/UK/NAM have something more significant due to better interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Euro at 500 looks like it’s coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Looks like the interaction never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 UKIE btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Euro did develop the 2nd low more defined on this run and it was further west. Maybe baby steps for the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro did develop the 2nd low more defined on this run and it was further west. Maybe baby steps for the Euro There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: UKIE btw Verbatim that's becoming a little close for comfort in eastern areas. But at this point hopefully we're getting the idea that the second piece of energy late this weekend is what we need to keep an eye on. The amplified idea is hopefully gaining steam, and the GFS as always will be last to catch onto southern stream evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Euro a bit closer, but still cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go. Small evolutions aloft at 500mb will make for significant changes at the surface. More interaction 50 miles either way aloft means a storm developing in time and curling north, or a boot east and flatter system. There's still time for the much more amped outcome like the UKMET to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go. The GFS/Euro aren’t really that close. The differences down south between 18-48 hours are crazy different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's not a lot of time left for big adjustments, if nothing changes by tomorrow then gfs/Euro will be the way to go. There is plenty of time for changes and it we don't need big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS/Euro aren’t really that close. The differences down south between 18-48 hours are crazy different Agreed, looks like the northern stream comes in too soon and pushes everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nam is coming in more amplified through 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NAM way east. Pray for flurries now. Really shocked after that UK west run. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2-3” is going to have to be a novena. Like I said, sleep with dogs, wake up with fleas. Ride the hot hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: 2-3” is going to have to be a novena. Like I said, sleep with dogs, wake up with fleas. Ride the hot hand. And you don't have the hot hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM way east. Pray for flurries now. Really shocked after that UK west run. Oh well. Based off the Nam ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Nam LP placement isn’t all that bad... precip shields Supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Based off the Nam ? LOL You mean the NAM you been humping lol? You’ll get your snow Ant, just not this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Based off the Nam ? LOL SREFs too. NAM was a western outlier with the brits and canadians. It's gone now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: SREFs too. NAM was a western outlier with the brits and canadians. It's gone now too. Eps shows 1-2 inches We will most likely get that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: You mean the NAM you been humping lol? You’ll get your snow Ant, just not this weekend. We will see snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Eps shows 1-2 inches We will most likely get that Not exactly exciting. Not a flake on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And you don't have the hot hand It’s hot the last 6 weeks and getting hotter. Be patient, watch the 17-18th as your first shot at some snow. You can’t win em all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 We should stop with the west and east talk... nam and ggem although different outcomes.. our LP is generally located in similar position. intensity, trof orientation and stream interaction are the main differences, not east and West LP placement... our northern stream and southern stream energy interact on the ggem, a wider precip shield produces, however our Northern stream is a kicker on the nam and other models, and act to suppress our southern stream energy so despite similar LP placement we get a weaker, less expansive precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 A lot of us like the 13th 18th and even something around the 23rd. This weekends system has small upside east of I95. .2 to .3 is seen on the EPS and that has been the idea. No one is humping the UK or CMC they are high skilled scored models that may be over doing it in the deep south.. This 3 week cold pattern has been talked about from late November. There's a chance it's active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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