December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Things definitely look better out across eastern SNE but could be cooked back here in CT for much more than 2-3” for most. That trough seems to be taking its sweet time amplifying enough to really capture that one main piece of s/w energy within the southern stream flow. Much of the stronger VV’s remain east of CT. In fact, I think you could even argue for some subsidence back this way and we end up with crappy flake size and horrid rates. E MA should get into blossoming action on the backside tonight 

Hype severe and downplay snow. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hype severe and downplay snow. 

I hype neither. I used to hype severe now I don’t hype anything. If I see a reason to call for big severe I’ll do so. If I see a reason to forecast 6-10” of snow I’ll do so. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hype severe and downplay snow. 

Where's the upgrade to WSW for the 6-10" of snow, still waiting.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I hype neither. I used to hype severe now I don’t hype anything. If I see a reason to call for big severe I’ll do so. If I see a reason to forecast 6-10” of snow I’ll do so. 

Hey I applaud your effort. I just can’t recall a snow where you haven’t had lowest forecast out there

At any rate, HRRR looks great for 3-6”

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hey I applaud your effort. I just can’t recall a snow where you haven’t had lowest forecast out there

At any rate, HRRR looks great for 3-6”

 

I do agree that more often than not I am on the lower side of things. There was an event early last year though where I was too high. But I also feel like over the past few years we’ve seen numerous events where initial thoughts are on the high side and many end up toning down as we near the event. But trust me...if we get a big setup this winter I’ll be chucking high and far 

[ORH_wxman]

HRRR def looks better recently. Has high end advisory back to river. Some warning lollis a bit east of there. 

[CTWeatherFreak]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I do agree that more often than not I am on the lower side of things. There was an event early last year though where I was too high. But I also feel like over the past few years we’ve seen numerous events where initial thoughts are on the high side and many end up toning down as we near the event. But trust me...if we get a big setup this winter I’ll be chucking high and far 

Definitely seems like we need to decrease totals during an event more than we increase.

[Whineminster]

Typically there's always a run or two that shows gangbusters, which is why you blend the best and worst and go with middle....not sure what everyone is upset about. 

[WxBlue]

HRRR continues to juice up a bit each run. 0.5-0.75" shifted 50 miles west on the latest one. To include I-84 NE of Hartford and along I-90 in Mass.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

HRRR continues to juice up a bit each run. 0.5-0.75" shifted 50 miles west on the latest one. To include I-84 NE of Hartford and along I-90 in Mass.

Yeah some events the HRRR has a good handle on but this one it has struggled. I like to see consistency on it to really go with it but it's been a bit inconsistent. 

Most consistent model by far has been the RGEM for the past 3-4 runs I think. 

[dryslot]

I find the HRRR to be all over the place in many events.

[weathafella]

Reggie is the junior king.  Maybe the prince?

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Definitely seems like we need to decrease totals during an event more than we increase.

I’m intrigued as to why this is. Everyone has their own techniques and experiences with forecasting so I’m sure that plays a part. Thankful this doesn’t happen with anyone on here but what I see outside of here is too many heavily rely on model snowfall maps and will put heavy merit in those. That’s why I absolutely hate them. What they’re doing is allowing people to use less in the way of meteorology. I see this at school with some people. It doesn’t help that most people who use them don’t even understand how to use them or understand the algorithms used 

[WxBlue]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I find the HRRR to be all over the place in many events.

It's not great for bigger storms with the consistency, but it has good agreement with RAP at this moment even if they're still correcting the QPF toward RGEM somewhat. 

 

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah some events the HRRR has a good handle on but this one it has struggled. I like to see consistency on it to really go with it but it's been a bit inconsistent. 

Most consistent model by far has been the RGEM for the past 3-4 runs I think. 

I've been impressed with Reggie for this event. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Reggie is the junior king.  Maybe the prince?

Yeah really the past 3-4 winters it has been my go-to in the shorter term. It got that excellent upgrade in 2012 or 2013 and since then, it has been a very good model. Still has its issues from time to time, hasn't 100% shook its occasional penchant for QPF bombs...but it's prob the best model of any for thermal profiles...esp lower levels...and seems to do well picking out banding. 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

HRRR continues to juice up a bit each run. 0.5-0.75" shifted 50 miles west on the latest one. To include I-84 NE of Hartford and along I-90 in Mass.

Just give me 60 more miles

[WxBlue]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m intrigued as to why this is. Everyone has their own techniques and experiences with forecasting so I’m sure that plays a part. Thankful this doesn’t happen with anyone on here but what I see outside of here is too many heavily rely on model snowfall maps and will put heavy merit in those. That’s why I absolutely hate them. What they’re doing is allowing people to use less in the way of meteorology. I see this at school with some people. It doesn’t help that most people who use them don’t even understand how to use them or understand the algorithms used 

I'm guilty of that. I've been trying to force myself to use QPF and use dynamics and synoptic more to come up with snowfall forecast rather than straight up looking at snow maps. My last two years at UNCA opened my eyes to more moving pieces that's often not discussed on social media or on TV. Doing math sucked, but it was a heck of a learning experience.

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah really the past 3-4 winters it has been my go-to in the shorter term. It got that excellent upgrade in 2012 or 2013 and since then, it has been a very good model. Still has its issues from time to time, hasn't 100% shook its occasional penchant for QPF bombs...but it's prob the best model of any for thermal profiles...esp lower levels...and seems to do well picking out banding. 

I think I'm starting to agree with you ORH_WXMAN.  I use to not think much about it as a model just kind of lumped it in with the model suite.  Now for the last few years it seems to have merit, earning its value.

[CoastalWx]

The RGEM is a much more stable model than the NAM. It's a tool so you always need to evaluate the current situation to see if it fits, but stability is such an important factor in forecasting.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The RGEM is a much more stable model than the NAM. It's a tool so you always need to evaluate the current situation to see if it fits, but stability is such an important factor in forecasting.

This is what makes the Euro so valuable, It remains consistent without run to run wild swings.

[medmax]

Started in Waltham about an hour ago. Now snowing and slush on all surfaces.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I'm guilty of that. I've been trying to force myself to use QPF and use dynamics and synoptic more to come up with snowfall forecast rather than straight up looking at snow maps. My last two years at UNCA opened my eyes to more moving pieces that's often not discussed on social media or on TV. Doing math sucked, but it was a heck of a learning experience.

I wish I was so much better with the maths and physics. Thankfully I made it through all the math and physics. 

I do think the snowfall maps do provide some value (they can pinpoint where heaviest banding May setup or even depict areas of subsidence) but b/c they are so limited within the algorithms of how they spit out the numbers I think they’ll really flawed. 

This is why I love Bufkit. You get a fantastic visualization of the structure of the atmosphere really. You can look at things such as where your snowgrowth zone is located, whether the -15C isotherm intersects it, how much moisture is within the zone, how much omega you have penetrating the zone. Using this you can get a feel for snowfall ratios, rates, and how the QPF is being utilized. 

Unless I’m wrong I don’t think snowfall maps incorporate any of this. Think it’s mainly like max temperature in the profile, a constant snowfall ratio, and QPF

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah flakes started on time actually but the real stuff is def taking longer than those original bigger runs had. 

Gotcha, definitely moderate now

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Gotcha, definitely moderate now

Hoping we make up some ground this afternoon. Radar looks solid and the short term models are liking it. Either way, should be a fun 12 hours coming up. Put everyone in the holiday spirit. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hoping we make up some ground this afternoon. Radar looks solid and the short term models are liking it. Either way, should be a fun 12 hours coming up. Put everyone in the holiday spirit. 

So some may know but I am part of a dog rescue group. In 3 years we have fostered in my home so far 46 pups. Sometimes we have foster fails, meaning the foster family adopts the foster.  It's a great thing. We now have 7 dogs 5 little guys and 2 brutes. It all works. Anyways have to tell you about my big guy Tigger. Total weenie dog. We rescued him as a pup in Jan 15, so right away he was in snow. He is nutz about snow, woke me up this AM earlier than usual. I though maybe deer in the yard, nope it was snowing and he wanted out. Keep in mind he hates rain and won't go out in it. Anyways he has been outside running jumping catching flakes all morning. I let him in and turn around and he is outside through the doggie door. What a weenie. 

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Definitely seems like we need to decrease totals during an event more than we increase.

Lol no it works both ways  did you all forget 10 months ago. 

[dendrite]

We slice. We dice. Hoping for a couple inches. At least the later start time may help me get a start on the chicken run.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So some may know but I am part of a dog rescue group. In 3 years we have fostered in my home so far 46 pups. Sometimes we have foster fails, meaning the foster family adopts the foster.  It's a great thing. We now have 7 dogs 5 little guys and 2 brutes. It all works. Anyways have to tell you about my big guy Tigger. Total weenie dog. We rescued him as a pup in Jan 15, so right away he was in snow. He is nutz about snow, woke me up this AM earlier than usual. I though maybe deer in the yard, nope it was snowing and he wanted out. Keep in mind he hates rain and won't go out in it. Anyways he has been outside running jumping catching flakes all morning. I let him in and turn around and he is outside through the doggie door. What a weenie. 

Lol. That's awesome. What a weenie dog. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That’s awesome Ginx. I need a weenie dog. My two bostons shake at the sight of snow or the feel of cold. Great dogs but now that I have a house with 2 acres, I may need a husky or a rot....a beast I can play in the man snow with. 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So some may know but I am part of a dog rescue group. In 3 years we have fostered in my home so far 46 pups. Sometimes we have foster fails, meaning the foster family adopts the foster.  It's a great thing. We now have 7 dogs 5 little guys and 2 brutes. It all works. Anyways have to tell you about my big guy Tigger. Total weenie dog. We rescued him as a pup in Jan 15, so right away he was in snow. He is nutz about snow, woke me up this AM earlier than usual. I though maybe deer in the yard, nope it was snowing and he wanted out. Keep in mind he hates rain and won't go out in it. Anyways he has been outside running jumping catching flakes all morning. I let him in and turn around and he is outside through the doggie door. What a weenie. 

I have a chicken obsessed with eating it. I barely see her drink water, but she mows down snow piles like mealworms.