#NoPoles Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Mostly I just skim to get caught up, but there was a point yesterday were Noyes was getting ripped on for something about his forecast and coastal temps...well it is 37 degrees here in Manomet Plymouth. Noyes usually does really well with the plymouth cape cod and canal area. More often than not, guidance will keep my area too cold. Warm air usually floods in with no resistance often even before precip ever arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 A solid 2-3" on the HRRR for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Yeah HimoorWx may be a good spot. I'm hoping I'm not 34F for awhille and can stay near 32 if winds back N. If so, should be fun here. Just looking forward to some snow.Hope so! Maybe my 225' of elevation will help. Just noticed the first flakes of the morning. Sent from my SM-T713 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Mostly I just skim to get caught up, but there was a point yesterday were Noyes was getting ripped on for something about his forecast and coastal temps...well it is 37 degrees here in Manomet Plymouth. Noyes usually does really well with the plymouth cape cod and canal area. More often than not, guidance will keep my area too cold. Warm air usually floods in with no resistance often even before precip ever arrives. That was for BOS. Far SE areas and the Cape were progged to have trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3-5” here seems doable. maybe add on some fluff tonight/ tomorrow morning We don’t 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We don’t 8-10. Already coated up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We don’t 8-10. That wasn't happening, Strung out and to progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nam still solid with the stripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 58 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will, given the trends of last 12 Hours, was this due to less N stream digging , less Consolidated S. Stream energy, and lastly would you be shocked to see this Trend even weaker right thru today Yeah I was checking some of the big runs like the 18z run of the NAM from Thursday and it def had a deeper northern stream. Looks like we overtrended that a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: He would be banging the RUC right now, Him and i use to PM on here quite often, RIP Scott. Yea...we PMed alot, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea...we PMed alot, too. I think i still have them in my inbox........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Prob see 20dbz all day and bake soda our way to 2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think i still have them in my inbox........... Me, too. Well, now that we both feel suicidal...I believe it may snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 QPF gets so overblown sometimes. In a situation like this you gotta not just look at total QPF but also take into account how drawn out QPF is overtime. 1/2” of QPF in 3 hours is much different than 1/2” in 6-8 hours. Things right now don’t look great at all for higher amounts. There is a big disconnect between the pieces of energy and jet max, 700mb frontogenesis actually decreased a bit, and it appears we will lack of prolonged period of strong enough vertical motion to produce nice solid rates. The saving grace for some could be what Ryan mentioned last night. It’s going to take some time for 1-2” of snow to accumulate on the ground for many. I think we’re just looking at an elongated band of snow with crappy flake size, weak intensity, and only brief spurts of moderate intensity with enhanced pockets of VV move overhead. But this will only be sustained for like 20-30 min at a time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Steady snow here now; snow growth increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: QPF gets so overblown sometimes. In a situation like this you gotta not just look at total QPF but also take into account how drawn out QPF is overtime. 1/2” of QPF in 3 hours is much different than 1/2” in 6-8 hours. Things right now don’t look great at all for higher amounts. There is a big disconnect between the pieces of energy and jet max, 700mb frontogenesis actually decreased a bit, and it appears we will lack of prolonged period of strong enough vertical motion to produce nice solid rates. The saving grace for some could be what Ryan mentioned last night. It’s going to take some time for 1-2” of snow to accumulate on the ground for many. I think we’re just looking at an elongated band of snow with crappy flake size, weak intensity, and only brief spurts of moderate intensity with enhanced pockets of VV move overhead. But this will only be sustained for like 20-30 min at a time). Good take, agree. Ryans first call 2-4” looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm not excited about a 4-6 hour delay in the start. I was hoping for 6"+ here but went into it saying I wanted 4" minimum. May have to claw a bit to get there now. This one could still have a surprise or two though so no need to go full on busto-rama yet. The ML fronto does ramp up nicely later on. What's this 4 to 6 HR delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: A solid 2-3" on the HRRR for GC. That sounds about right. WRF-NMM says 1-2" which could very well verify in lower elevations if we get meh' dynamics. we baking powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Good take, agree. Ryans first call 2-4” looks good. I think that’s why so many times initial calls end up being too high and then people get all upset when things “start to look worse”. It’s one thing to have the QPF but that QPF needs to be analyzed. You gotta ask yourself; is the QPF being drawn out? do we have significant QPF falling in a small timeframe? How much of this QPF will be maximized and utilized by the strongest lift? Do we have sufficient lift into the SGZ? This is all my opinion of course but I’ve found myself to become much better at winter forecasting the past few years b/c of such questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That sounds about right. WRF-NMM says 1-2" which could very well verify in lower elevations if we get meh' dynamics. we baking powder. On our first drive, kick the fg and put points on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What's this 4 to 6 HR delay? Yeah flakes started on time actually but the real stuff is def taking longer than those original bigger runs had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Reggie looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Reggie looks decent. Yes, Still looks good, I definitely trust that more then the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Yes, Still looks good, I definitely trust that more then the Nam. Even the NAM on death row improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Reggie looks decent. That's really good for your hood (and mine) this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What's this 4 to 6 HR delay? Reggie looks good for Much of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's really good for your hood (and mine) this afternoon and evening. I’m still confident that tonight’s yesterday afternoon will verify. 6 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Even the NAM on death row improved. It was already getting lethal injections up here, It cut way back on qpf from the 06z run from close to .70" to .30" roughly at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Things definitely look better out across eastern SNE but could be cooked back here in CT for much more than 2-3” for most. That trough seems to be taking its sweet time amplifying enough to really capture that one main piece of s/w energy within the southern stream flow. Much of the stronger VV’s remain east of CT. In fact, I think you could even argue for some subsidence back this way and we end up with crappy flake size and horrid rates. E MA should get into blossoming action on the backside tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: On our first drive, kick the fg and put points on the board. Yup. I think some were expecting TD and pat dropkick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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