December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[ajisai]

from 06z this morning to this 00z

 

[JBinStoughton]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I dunno' I feel like it never really got going this year. 

Winter has shown its hand....we wait for 18/19 lol. 

[snowgeek]

I never expected much here. Seen this storm track too many times the last few years to not recognize a west side screw zone. I’m rooting for you guys to the east and I’ll be pleasantly surprised if we do better over this way.


.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ajisai said:

from 06z this morning to this 00z

 

Ugly

Lets see uncle and euro

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ugly

Lets see uncle and euro

Yeah, that cuts ORH totals is half from this morning. 

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ugly

Lets see uncle and euro

That's based off 10-1 ratios.  I don't think these ratios will all be like that given the thermal profiles.  Unless the colder drier air eats it up?

[Semper911]

I love the throw-in-the-towel posts the night before a storm. It's like clockwork.

For December freaking 9th, I'll take whatever I can get.

Good luck gents...

[dryslot]

LOL.  Is this what our first meltdown is going to look like?

No clue, Unless some set the bar out of reach, Just getting on the board should be a bonus......

[The Graupler]

Good stuff, hopefully the 00z is the start of a trend that leads to lower amounts tomorrow. Fingers crossed UKIE and Euro jump on board and this thing is just some pretty flakes and nothing snowblower worthy.

[Greg]

The only other thing that comes to mind is that the upper level low is acting more like a kicker instead of a  precipitation enhancer with its added uplift..

[WxBlue]

Idk about throwing in the towel. HRRR is looking pretty on-the-par for widespread 4-8" across SNE at the pace it's showing.

[Greg]

Weather officials in Taunton seem to be sticking with their forecast as of 10:30 tonight.  We'll see what the rest of the models say and if they change their tune.

[weatherwiz]

I'm on the much lower side of things here for CT but I'm thinking widespread 2-4'' with 1-3'' across the NW portion of the state. I find it kind of tough to see prolonged periods of moderate to heavy snow occurring. I think we'll generally see light snow with bursts of moderate snow. While bufkit soundings show excellent snowgrowth and sufficient moisture within the DSZ, I'm not seeing a great deal of omega...generally -10 units of omega. Also, looking at 700mb VV forecasts and even 850mb VV's, we don't get a nice solid presence of VV's to setup, rather we see bursts of stronger VV's push overhead. This leads me to believe that we generally see light snows with only bursts of moderate snows. I think the lack of stronger lift within the DSZ will reduce the likelihood for higher snowfall ratios. QPF didn't really impressive me either, especially considering how long the QPF is drawn out. (1/2'' of QPF in say 10-12 hours) also I think suggests predominately light snows. 

Now perhaps I'm completely underestimating llvl influences which in these situations you can get an extremely heavy band of snows from excellent llvl convergence, forcing, and lift but that might be further east. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, you guys are neurotic.

[weathafella]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

One thing that never changes

People over react to people commenting on something not favorable 

Makes it easier to be dismissed

UKIE still looks good

Want Euro to hold serve

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

One thing that never changes

People over react to people commenting on something not favorable 

Makes it easier to be dismissed

UKIE still looks good

Want Euro to hold serve

Not sure who overreacted....but its pretty easy to dismiss one suite of the NCEP guidance.

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just saw that.  Down a bit, but still .6-.8 for our backyard.  Fits in with the Canadian models at 0z.

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure who overreacted....but its pretty easy to dismiss one suite of the NCEP guidance.

I may have because my numbers are on the high side. But... 00z NAM 3km & 12km, 00z GFS, 00z Reggie, and latest RPM have all cut back by varying degrees (some as much as 20% or so) wrt QPF. 

Sort of bummed I didn't stick with my initial 3"-6" forecast.

[ajisai]

Harvey

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I may have because my numbers are on the high side. But... 00z NAM 3km & 12km, 00z GFS, 00z Reggie, and latest RPM have all cut back by varying degrees (some as much as 20% or so) wrt QPF. 

Sort of bummed I didn't stick with my initial 3"-6" forecast.

When I was checking my phone at work today and saw you bumped I was freaking out  

BTW, my roommate and I were watching your 11:00 forecast last night and it was tremendous. It sucks I don't get to really watch the news much but the way you break things down and explain them is quite inspiring. 

[Greg]

I'm not really overeacting at all just indicating what a weather model or two may be seeing and why, and that's all.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, ajisai said:

Harvey

You beat me to it.  I was just about to post that map Harvey made.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I may have because my numbers are on the high side. But... 00z NAM 3km & 12km, 00z GFS, 00z Reggie, and latest RPM have all cut back by varying degrees (some as much as 20% or so) wrt QPF. 

Sort of bummed I didn't stick with my initial 3"-6" forecast.

Tossing the RGEM?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I may have because my numbers are on the high side. But... 00z NAM 3km & 12km, 00z GFS, 00z Reggie, and latest RPM have all cut back by varying degrees (some as much as 20% or so) wrt QPF. 

Sort of bummed I didn't stick with my initial 3"-6" forecast.

Not that I have to tell you this, but I try to just keep an even keel...never bit on the zonked 6-10" runs.

My first guess at the start of the week was 2-5", which wasn't bad considering how meager guidance was. I have 3-6" for most of CT and feel decent about it.

I puked all over myself last April 1 lol, so hoping to start well.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tossing the RGEM?

No... Reggie cut back from 18z about 10 or 20% in terms of QPF. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not that I have to tell you this, but I try to just keep an even keel...never bit on the zonked 6-10" runs.

My first guess at the start of the week was 2-5", which wasn't bad considering how meager guidance was. I have 3-6" for most of CT and feel decent about it.

I puked all over myself last April 1 lol, so hoping to start well.

I have had 4 to 6 for 4 days. 8 lolly

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Greg said:

I'm not really overeacting at all just indicating what a weather model or two may be seeing and why, and that's all.

I just meant the board is neueotic...I wasn't calling anyone out. We all are obsessed. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

No... Reggie cut back from 18z about 10 or 20% in terms of QPF. 

It's still at your numbers 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

I have had 4 to 6 for 4 days. 8 lolly

That looks good right now...ballsy considering everything was a whiff for a spell.