December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[TalcottWx]

250kt severe turb over NY State. Fun. CC: Scooter

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

someone please photoshop pink colors for those left out so we can end this

Best response so far, lol.

[dryslot]

Very reasonable.

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ma - han ... holy crap is this thing narrow..

i mean i knew and even mentioned at one time or the other, just how needle-threading this thing was in this high velocity/compressed field but that's 45 miles wide all the way up.

we are getting excruciatingly lucky here -

Its the coastal plain...they get "lucky" a lot with these storms ;).

In all honesty, this isn't luck.  It's geography.  I know Will has mentioned it a lot in the past that the geography of SNE lends itself to these types of systems.  SNE sticks out into the Atlantic relative to the trajectory of the coastline from say the Delmarva to Maine. 

Just think if you drew a line from NYC to PWM, how much real estate is "sticking out" into the Atlantic there.

18z NAM to illustrate.

[Damage In Tolland]

We 8-10”

[forkyfork]

i love when the gfs looks better aloft but cuts back on precip

[WintersComing]

We 8-10”

New Gfs?



.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think the inland North Shore and South Shore including the city of Boston will see the 8" amounts, while the rest of the map explains what I am seeing for the rest of the area

Boston is seldom in the max zone.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boston is seldom in the max zone.

People have to remember that snow accumulations is more than qpfx10.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Its the coastal plain...they get "lucky" a lot with these storms ;).

In all honesty, this isn't luck.  It's geography.  I know Will has mentioned it a lot in the past that the geography of SNE lends itself to these types of systems.  SNE sticks out into the Atlantic relative to the trajectory of the coastline from say the Delmarva to Maine. 

Just think if you drew a line from NYC to PWM, how much real estate is "sticking out" into the Atlantic there.

18z NAM to illustrate.

Combo of both.

[BRSno]

Wonder if we'll see a big-ish difference between Logan and say the Common?

[Weatherexpert]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves I'm not expecting a huge storm. A little snow, yes, but nothing to get too ahead of ourselves with. I think that deeper in the winter Jan/Feb is when we will really get hit with both snow and cold temps. This is just the beginning

[Weatherexpert]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I just want a storm with blizzard conditions again, that is awesome to experience, if I have to wait I have to wait

With patience it will be here before we know it.

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We 8-10”

 Even outside the winter storm warning area ? :-) 

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 Even outside the winter storm warning area ? :-) 

Not gonna let the NWS steal his snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

noo...

it's luck - period.

we've been missed by enough narrow events to know that sometimes you get the bullet, sometimes you don't... The point is, it's 50 mile wide bullet and it could streak anywhere.  weather SNE sticks out or not means nothing.  it happened to be in unlikely path and that is all chance.

[Damage In Tolland]

He bump , you bump, we bump 

 

[dendrite]

idk what MOS is smoking up here tonight, but we’re not hitting low 10s. 10-15F bust?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

That line of precipitation extends forever

Is Delaware forecast to see 15"

Radar is juiced 

[Bryan63]

You guys got a lot of moisture coming your way. Been raining heavily all day down here, had a brief moment where it changed over to heavy snow and came down and coated the ground, other areas out west seem to be over performing from what was forecast. Enjoy!!

[The 4 Seasons]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He bump , you bump, we bump 

 

 

That's the first time in a very long time i can remember that Ryan used overlapping snowfall totals in his graphics. Interesting. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

When might this begin for Se ct. and. Sw RI

I could see those areas just inland surprise there,  especially 300'+

I like that area for a JP

Hopkinton,etc

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

That's the first time in a very long time i can remember that Ryan used overlapping snowfall totals in his graphics. Interesting. 

I like it, always have. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Coming into reality..

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I like it, always have. 

I used to do it a while ago and to tell you the truth Ryan is part of the reason i switch to incremental (non-overlapping) totals. It just made more sense to me. Especially after making so many snowfall total graphics (measurements after the storm) almost always lined up with the non-overlapping forecast graphics.

Rarely (if ever) would you see half the state with say 5-10" and the other half with 6-12". Growing up i remember for on-air TV anyways, that over-lapping totals were the status-quo, you would usually see 3-6, 4-8, 5-10, 6-12 type shades. Now it seems it's not really the case anymore.

[Typhoon Tip]

this whole ordeal has some ANA characteristics to it's complexion...

I realize it has the n-stream thing diving in...but ...that really isn't involved/hooking up with this thing and you have a wind acceleration at mid levels riding up just west of the lvl baroclinic zone...causing some upglide whether the n-stream is there or not. 

[ajisai]

Obs thread soon?

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

When might this begin for Se ct. and. Sw RI

I could see those areas just inland surprise there,  especially 300'+

I like that area for a JP

Hopkinton,etc

 

They start 6-7:00 Am

[ajisai]

Family down in Alabama lost power just now. Wet snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

HRRR has it snowing south of Pike by 9:00