December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[WxBlue]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you will do fairly well. No question all snow...and no question is should stack nicely. I think you will be surprised at how well DAW can hold the cold. I can't wait to see your reaction when we get a real CAD situation and the models have you at 40F and it's 26 with ZR.

I do think we'll get at least 4" for sure. At this point, questions are shifting to how much of our potential we can maximize at my location in downtown Dover. I think we have higher ceiling than almost everyone on this sub-forum given that we should be fully snow all the way though with room to spare. Of course, you can never rule out dry slotting, etc.

I had to forecast a major CAD region down in the Carolinas and it was a pain because it's almost always colder at the surface than models are showing. Expecting the same here for some events down the road.

[WintersComing]

Any validity to those Kuchera Snow Ratio maps on Pivotal weather?

[powderfreak]

12z EPS mean ranges from 2.0" at BTV to 5.5" just west of BOS.  Oddly it just has 6"+ for downeast Maine.

All of SNE is in the 4.0-5.5" range.  Widespread 0.4-0.6" QPF.

[snowgeek]

Looks like we'll be on the NW fringe here in ENY....pretty used to that lately.  Hopefully the initial moisture push is far enough NW to get us into some decent steady snow before it pivots NE and gets eroded by the low dews from the northwest.  Expecting an inch or 2.  

[moneypitmike]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

LOL at the screw job in western Franklin.  

 

32.8*

[mreaves]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I bet you'll get at least 4-5". 

Maybe its time MPM passed the Eeyore avatar on to Tblizz

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL at the screw job in western Franklin.  

32.8*

Yeah that 5.8" instead of 6.3" in neighboring counties really is a screw job ;).  

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL at the screw job in western Franklin.  

 

32.8*

 

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Maybe its time MPM passed the Eeyore avatar on to Tblizz

Or maybe not.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

Or maybe not.

  MPM. 

[CoastalWx]

BTW, a very high thickness snow event going on in the south right now. Critical thicknesses fail if one is using that. That goes to show you the magic that can happen when you get good lift in the DGZ. 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BTW, a very high thickness snow event going on in the south right now. Critical thicknesses fail if one is using that. That goes to show you the magic that can happen when you get good lift in the DGZ. 

Even for New England some of the crude PSU EWall NAM/GFS maps have the 540 line like northwest of ORH and BDL tomorrow.  

[moneypitmike]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that 5.8" instead of 6.3" in neighboring counties really is a screw job ;).  

But it's a different color.......:(

[WxBlue]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BTW, a very high thickness snow event going on in the south right now. Critical thicknesses fail if one is using that. That goes to show you the magic that can happen when you get good lift in the DGZ. 

Approaching to 7" in Asheville and they still have 12-18 more hours of snow. Just a spectacular forecasting bust there. Too bad we won't see the first half of that system up here. That'd be a heck of an event here.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

But it's a different color.......:(

Haha I knew that's why you thought it was a screw zone.  Like ahh terrible I didn't make purple.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even for New England some of the crude PSU EWall NAM/GFS maps have the 540 line like northwest of ORH and BDL tomorrow.  

Yeah gets one above 925 to 800 or so.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Approaching to 7" in Asheville and they still have 12-18 more hours of snow. Just a spectacular forecasting bust there. 

That's awesome. I did not pay much attention to the forecast there, but sounds like quite the near term bust!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I bet you'll get at least 4-5". 

Maybe... but this quickly looks like it’s turning into a slop fest 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe... but this quickly looks like it’s turning into a slop fest 

[Damage In Tolland]

Remember that GGEM map the other day that we tossed. Had snow from TX to ATL to Maine. 

Its gonna be dead nuts on. Canadian was first to see it but lost it 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe... but this quickly looks like it’s turning into a slop fest 

 

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

He needs one more to make it a bakers dozen.

[JC-CT]

Lol ridiculousness

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Remember that GGEM map the other day that we tossed. Had snow from TX to ATL to Maine. 

Its gonna be dead nuts on. Canadian was first to see it but lost it 

The Canadian is about as reliable for cyclogenesis as the NAM is for temps in London.

[WxBlue]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's awesome. I did not pay much attention to the forecast there, but sounds like quite the near term bust!

Local mets were expecting 2-6" heading into last night with higher amounts in mountains. NWS had them at 1-2" 24 hours ago. Then short-range models went crazy during the night and local news tried to bump up to 6-9". They're already past that with 7-10" reports coming in now. HRRR still has snow for them all the way through 7 am tomorrow.

Man, I wish this was a year ago.

[Damage In Tolland]

Days and days of snows 

 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe... but this quickly looks like it’s turning into a slop fest 

I do enjoy your meltdowns.

[dryslot]

18z Nam ticking west from the 12z run, Northern stream s/w digging further south.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Some drive themselves crazy obsessing over model runs inside 24hrs. We look for any red flags, but they aint there. It’s a general 4-8” across most of sne which is great comapred to what it looked like  a few days ago. 

Euro was nice and 18z  nammy correcting itself back nw lol. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Nam ticking west from the 12z run.

Cold too if you’re off the cape 

[WxBlue]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z Nam ticking west from the 12z run.

A tad slower and stronger. 

HRRR is even slower with the low.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The Canadian is about as reliable for cyclogenesis as the NAM is for temps in London.

Here it is friend . This was from Tues or Wed