December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, WxBlue said:

It's worth noting that the northern edge has been overperforming in the Deep South, just like it did in southern Texas. I didn't see anything about Jackson, Mississippi getting more than 5 inches in their forecast yesterady. Asheville also saw a big jump in snowfall forecast this morning. I'm not sure if what's happening in the South will carry over to New England, but it's a trend I've been observing.

Correct, but if that southern stream scoots out faster before the northern stream interacts with it , you'll get the shunting E of the precip.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I could see that. Coastal front?

I could see a place like Brockton doing really well in this... maybe even over to Mansfield Norton area 

Scott was mentioning this ... and with the slightly cooler/weaker profiles coming in, the higher totals may be scrunching in closer to the CF down that way where cold compression is mooshed up against the NNE ocean trajectories..  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Any more ticks E and the W MA folks  might be  able to start worrying about poor snow growth and meh' rates.  

I'll stick with my 2-4" call for Franklin Co.   I would hope there is no reason to adjust down from there. 

[WxBlue]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Correct, but if that southern stream scoots out faster before the northern stream interacts with it , you'll get the shunting E of the precip.

Great counterpoint. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes .. it will . We’ve been discussing that very thing. This will drop good snows back to Albany 

Disagree.  The lead wave higher snows will be restricted to the CT river E.  The ULL may drop 2-3" of fake snow as it drops through on Sunday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Scott was mentioning this ... and with the slightly cooler/weaker profiles coming in, the higher totals may be scrunching in closer to the CF down that way where cold compression is mooshed up against the NNE ocean trajectories..  

Exactly.

Should more of a CJ profile show up, I'd like to see the mid level magic shift east, too. 

Not too concerned, though....decent first event.

[dryslot]

In earlier runs with a stronger s/w in the northern stream we were getting a partial phase with a tug to the north late, Last few cycles we have seem to have lost that so the s/w coming up from the south is escaping to the NE.

[Typhoon Tip]

well ... while we're in wait ...  

here's something to muse if not bemuse over the course of the afternoon and night.  at least for the time being ... Brownsville Texas has infinitely more snow this 2017-2018 winter season than does Boston Massachusetts.   

'course, there's no accounting for longevity there ...  just think that's funny.  the deviant in me would almost appreciate a catastrophic failure in the runs and this somehow missing altogether?  just for the shear Schadenfreude of the thing.   

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Disagree.  The lead wave higher snows will be restricted to the CT river E.  The ULL may drop 2-3" of fake snow as it drops through on Sunday.

The deform band is setting up either over or just west of the CTRV.. you’ll get 3-6 back west of DXR

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

In earlier runs with a stronger s/w in the northern stream we were getting a partial phase with a tug to the north late, Last few cycles we have seem to have lost that so the s/w coming up from the south is escaping to the NE.

Not a big deal unless someone was expecting widespread 6-10"....that was always the ceiling TBH.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a big deal unless someone was expecting widespread 6-10"....that was always the ceiling TBH.

You and I know there were some that did though............lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

Should more of a CJ profile show up, I'd like to see the mid level magic shift east, too. 

Not too concerned, though....decent first event.

This isn't close to your fear though. You aren't talking major frontogenesis here. Maybe the difference of 36F vs 28F or something like that. That's not your true enhancement that screws areas NW. The CF will be in the vic of BOS give or take 10 miles. Maybe 5 N to 10 SE or something like that.  I wouldn't even remotely be concerned to be honest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn't close to your fear though. You aren't talking major frontogenesis here. Maybe the difference of 36F vs 28F or something like that. That's not your true enhancement that screws areas NW. The CF will be in the vic of BOS give or take 10 miles. Maybe 5 N to 10 SE or something like that.  I wouldn't even remotely be concerned to be honest. 

I know...that's why I said "more" of a CJ appeal...its all smaller scale.

I'm just being picky between runs.

All it means is I won't see the 8" lolli...which I'm fine with.

Anything 4"+ is fine by me.

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty cool to see those snowfall totals way down south. Everyone looks like giddy school kids in the videos. 

I'm hoping the ULL can try and catch up to the southern stream just a bit more which will help hang back the snow for longer. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

In earlier runs with a stronger s/w in the northern stream we were getting a partial phase with a tug to the north late, Last few cycles we have seem to have lost that so the s/w coming up from the south is escaping to the NE.

good observation - ... that may be it, the cause for discontinuity.  

but, why -  ... as in, why would the models assess a more aggressive n-stream involvemet, than opt away?  

the reasons are,

1   ... the models are now picking up on some spontaneous emergent (fractal) borne out of on-going force interactions in the total wave mechanics in the flow - which is part of this mind game and is real.    

2   ... they were incorrectly sampling the inputs that went into the initialization just enough to tug things away from more proficient stream interactions.  Also.. not implausible.. 

which either provides logic to argue that the 'tug things away' could also be bullschit - so there's always that ...

[weathafella]

Uncle?

[mreaves]

51 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Well look at that.  A Jackpot Bullseye on The Snowman.  Accordion Tunes Commence?  

 

Im driving back from Montreal tomorrow so I'm trying to figure wheather to go more 91 to 90 back vs. the usual 89-93-495 back as it's too Far East.  But ALSO I actually need to be in Boston for a concert at MIT so I may never be home for this one.... 

 

Here we go AGAIN with that crap of me never being home on a good one  until I change plans and rush back and it turns into a suck storm.  

If you decide on the 89 route, squeeze out a few tunes for me as you pass exit 6 in VT.

[HimoorWx]

47 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Zoomed in 12zRGEM.  Higher totals are actually along the rt 24 corridorS of BOS.  Coastal front enhancement and the ULL.

Works for me!!! 1/2 mile east of 24 and 1 mile south of 128.

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle?

Not yet

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle?

Only out to 36 on Plymouth and no QPF on that site. But it's still pretty zonked based on the midlevels and 500. 

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Only out to 36 on Plymouth and no QPF on that site. But it's still pretty zonked based on the midlevels and 500. 

We take.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

We take.

Might actually get close to tainting in BOS. But it's not a bad spot to have uncle right now. Reality is prob slightly east. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Ukie/ Reggie combo has been lethal last few years. Lock this one up

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Might actually get close to tainting in BOS. But it's not a bad spot to have uncle right now. Reality is prob slightly east. 

I’m happy at my house though.  A far cry sometimes from BOS.

[CoastalWx]

I am having a tough time accepting Noyes map. Honestly.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ukie/ Reggie combo has been lethal last few years. Lock this one up

Did you look at the RGEM?  heaviest snows are well E of the CT river and very little snow in ALY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I am having a tough time accepting Noyes map. Honestly.

Noyes= #forgettable

[correnjim1]

i'll take my rain and 33 degrees 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I am having a tough time accepting Noyes map. Honestly.

Probably just noyes at this point.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

UK all the way.