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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

Ukie has a 999 low very close to the NJ coast at 42 hours and then 996 low right  on the benchmark at 48 hours

Further west than the 12z run

Interesting as it has sort of led the W trend the past 48 hours.  I won't stay up for the Euro but we are within  it's locked and loaded'range, so whatever it shows probably won't change too dramatically. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Interesting as it has sort of led the W trend the past 48 hours.  I won't stay up for the Euro but we are within  it's locked and loaded'range, so whatever it shows probably won't change too dramatically. 

Does the Euro come in more amped and west now??  Ukie an omen for the Euro?  

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm not sure anyone is getting a foot.  This has always been an ENE storm and we have been thrown a bone by the W trends which have seemed to have stopped and corrected a bit. You should be good for 3-4" and baking powder is certainly a possibility.  

As far as sweet spot trends, ORH is almost always the sweet spot, but yes, I agree, the coast has had an amazing run while Berkshires and E NY languish.  You and I have not exactly been skunked though.  Some pretty good events past few years.  Last Dec was actually decent in NW MA, maybe not so much for your area. 

there will be some double digit totals in those zones

last feb was a pleasant surprise but the march event was like 6-1 stuff here and everyone else reported 3-6 more literally, even a town away....i am still not sure what crazy micro climate thing happened here last march

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

Does the Euro come in more amped and west now??  Ukie an omen for the Euro?  

I'm leaning that it holds serve from 12z but Ukie gives me pause that maybe we tick west?  There is obviously still a slight possibility of a wound up, in close solution but we would need to see that trend by 6z model runs and the flow still seems a bit to fast and not quite dug in enough for that to happen. 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks like it will come at least a bit west...not unexpected since most guidance is west of 12z (but some of them that had 18z runs stabilized a bit).

Looks that way. Seems like the northern stream isn't as sharp in all these 00z runs but the entire trough axis is farther west which allows this to come north. 

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Looks that way. Seems like the northern stream isn't as sharp in all these 00z runs but the entire trough axis is farther west which allows this to come north. 

 

Yeah the northern stream not coming as deep may limit the forcing a little, so I think we're seeing a cap on the snowfall amounts here in the low end warning range.

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