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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Im not saying its a bad call; Im saying its a conservative or a cautious call.  There's no denying there is a strong nw trend underway, and I think those totals will be raised later.. I think its a reasonable call for now; Id  also call it a cautious or conservative call. Thats not a bad thing.. ok?

It’s not conservative, ok? 

I know we want big numbers up on the maps right away but the guy is the chief weenie met for a reason. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...too bad it's prob not real...you'd have about a foot of man cement topped off by an inch ro two of currier and ives powder Sunday morning.

LOL, yeah one could wish. I do think you're in a good spot. Any nearby Chinese restaurants for Scorpion Bowls?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL, yeah one could wish. I do think you're in a good spot. Any nearby Chinese restaurants for Scorpion Bowls?

Actually we do have one....lol. I doubt you'll need to run from taint there though...maybe deal with a few hours of 33F paste would be my guess.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Looking at H5 on the NAM, this is pretty close to a big event.  The southern stream s/w is in a good spot to phase with and cause amplification and negative tilting of the northern stream wave.  That would lead to a stronger, closer, and slower SLP.  Just need the southern wave to get slightly out in front of the northern wave.  This run already largely achieves this.  But it has an even higher ceiling.

Lots of moisture coming straight out of the Gulf with that southern wave.  I could see it pumping the s/w ridge ahead of it, causing the northern wave to dig down behind it.  Curious if the other models will follow this trend.

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not conservative, ok? 

I know we want big numbers up on the maps right away but the guy is the chief weenie met for a reason. 

Considering the moisture buildup down south, the incredible jet, and the strong west trend underway, It's on the conservative side, and I think he'd tell you that. Its also probably a good first call.. Conservative is not bad!

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s not conservative, ok? 

I know we want big numbers up on the maps right away but the guy is the chief weenie met for a reason. 

I would say it's being prudent. We have the benefit on this board of being able to change our thinking without catching (a lot of) flak. 

Remember Ryan doesn't get to walk back a high total once he puts it out there. It's much better to ramp up a forecast, than back off. 

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WintersComing

WintersComing

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Considering the moisture buildup down south, the incredible jet, and the strong west trend underway, It's on the conservative side, and I think he'd tell you that. Its also probably a good first call.. Conservative is not bad!

I think its a good first call.  I'm sure he'll put the disclaimer that amounts have the potential to increase.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Considering the moisture buildup down south, the incredible jet, and the strong west trend underway, It's on the conservative side, and I think he'd tell you that. Its also probably a good first call.. Conservative is not bad!

I’m a lefty so I beg to differ.

It’s a good first call, leave it at that. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I would say it's being prudent. We have the benefit on this board of being able to change our thinking without catching (a lot of) flak. 

Remember Ryan doesn't get to walk back a high total once he puts it out there. It's much better to ramp up a forecast, than back off. 

Yes, my point. He can increase by an inch or teo tomorrow if things still look good. Anyone thinking 8-12” is doable off one nammy run needs the reach around, to relax.

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ha. What would your first call have been....if you had all of CT watching?

Well, Box just put up the following:

"We will have preliminary Max forecast of 4-6 inches from NE CT and central Massachusetts to interior southeast MA, a bit less toward CT valley."

I think 2-4 for the state as a whole will be ok to start, but I think they will go up.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I would say it's being prudent. We have the benefit on this board of being able to change our thinking without catching (a lot of) flak. 

Remember Ryan doesn't get to walk back a high total once he puts it out there. It's much better to ramp up a forecast, than back off. 

That's exactly it, 48+ hours out you just get the message out to the general public that it is going to snow and accumulate and then tomorrow is plenty of time to adjust upward.

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