December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Whoever gets that CF on the NAm will get a boost.

will need to borrow Rays' dropsonde

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

East slope of the hills there does tend to benefit both from huggers and SE specials....I'm liking my new digs for this one specifically....400 feet elev about 18 miles E of ORH.

Sounds like a good spot...Middlesex County?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

That is an amped up low level jet associated with the storm, 70 knots on the east side of the low

[#NoPoles]

Bah, you all stole my snow. Oh well, so far looks like a nice little event away from the coast. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Looks great even back here. I guess you have now moved east, leaving me the furthest west?

Yea, good luck out there. It can be a lonely place.

[weathafella]

I’m happy.  May not make it to Natick Saturday night st this rate.   Also thrilled with my extra elevation and more interior location.   I remember a system on a Sunday last year which was mixed in Brookline Village but 6 inches imby.

[CoastalWx]

Logan is still fairly chilly on the soundings.  Just hoping for some man snow and limited taint.

[snowman21]

Look at all those winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories from the Rio Grande through the Mississippi gulf coast and into the Atlanta area!

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like a good spot...Middlesex County?

Yeah far southwest Middlesex where it has that appendage sticking a bit west and southwest.

[weathafella]

That warm tongue at H7 gets to about PYM before receding.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Logan is still fairly chilly on the soundings.  Just hoping for some man snow and limited taint.

Yeah even BOS survives this run...the CF tickles them for a awhile, but they are prob getting pasted for a while and not rain. Too cold aloft. The elongated SW to NE nature of the low def helps keep stuff from going too much out of the east. Need the low to come even closer for that.

[WintersComing]

.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

18z NAM brings wind threat to Cape and Islands, could gust past 50mph Saturday evening as storm bombs to our southeast, around 983mb as it passes east of CHH.

[Bostonseminole]

box updated their maps, general 4-6"

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That warm tongue at H7 gets to about PYM before receding.

That warm tongue is causing an unstable layer above it. Might enhance rates.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah even BOS survives this run...the CF tickles them for a awhile, but they are prob getting pasted for a while and not rain. Too cold aloft. The elongated SW to NE nature of the low def helps keep stuff from going too much out of the east. Need the low to come even closer for that.

Yeah it will be close verbatim. I'm glad it's rather cool through 950.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

80 knot 925mb jet on the southeast side of the surface low, this is super dynamic run of the NAM, I can't wait to see the 18z GFS

[CTWeatherFreak]

Ryan going conservative on first call.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Whoever gets that CF on the NAm will get a boost.

Congrats

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Congrats

Verbtaim it's more near BOS and down 95.

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That warm tongue is causing an unstable layer above it. Might enhance rates.

Yeah I was happy to see it!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Ryan going conservative on first call.

Yea, he should of went balls to the wall off one nam run. 

[Zeus]

Aight.

I'm up.

[weathafella]

Remember-NAM beyond 3 hours.

[CTWeatherFreak]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, he should of went balls to the wall off one nam run. 

Not saying that.

[MarkO]

Throw caution to the NAM, but this system has been trending west for a few runs now. Would expect the GFS to follow suit, not that it might not trend back a bit tomorrow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Not saying that.

Nothing else shows a bigger hit. It’s close to bigger but for now 2-4” across the state is a great call. He can go 3-6” tomorrow if the ‘big’ hits keep coming. Toss the cranked up nam. 

[FlashFreeze]

 Is there a good chance of 6+ inches on the Lichfield-Harford County line In Barkhamstead?

[CoastalWx]

1.25" QPF on the NAM. We shave off.

[CTWeatherFreak]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nothing else shows a bigger hit. It’s close to bigger but for now 2-4” across the state is a great call. He can go 3-6” tomorrow if the ‘big’ hits keep coming. Toss the cranked up nam. 

Im not saying its a bad call; Im saying its a conservative or a cautious call.  There's no denying there is a strong nw trend underway, and I think those totals will be raised later.. I think its a reasonable call for now; Id  also call it a cautious or conservative call. Thats not a bad thing.. ok?