December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of infighting amongst the family today. You’d think we were getting a rainer. Deep winter is here. Enjoy this. Haven’t a December to remember since 2003

Or 07 or 08, or 09 or 10 in spots.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles very similar to op. lock it in.

[Baroclinic Zone]

https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

BOX firing up the Winter Graphics.

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Or 07 or 08, or 09 or 10 in spots.

I have a hunch he remembers 07 really well. He still has the scars on the top of his head from it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I figure in this set up the ensembles are still quite useful, i am liking my spot in Nashua for solid advisory

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

I have a hunch he remembers 07 really well. He still has the scars on the top of his head from it.

That’s why I forgot. CTE from sleet 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I figure in this set up the ensembles are still quite useful, i am liking my spot in Nashua for solid advisory

Yeah you will do fine. Where the hell do you live anyways? It says N Andover in sig.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

I have a hunch he remembers 07 really well. He still has the scars on the top of his head from it.

Sleet scratches on his scalp from all the running through the TOL hills.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah you will do fine. Where the hell do you live anyways? It says N Andover in sig.

He’s a gypsy. Moves every few weeks to find heavy women to train at local gyms 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

BOX firing up the Winter Graphics.

For the record, these will be live all the time now (unless there is an actual error with the script).

If we haven't defined an "event" (i.e. a storm total snowfall period) it will just tally up our 6 hour snowfall amounts through 72 hours. If we have a storm total snowfall grid defined, they probabilistic stuff will just apply to that (which BOX does for this event).

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

BOX firing up the Winter Graphics.

3:59am

Time stamp

Update should be fun

[WintersComing]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

3:59am

Time stamp

Update should be fun

Does NY office have similar maps like BOX?

 

[mreaves]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why I forgot. CTE from sleet 

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Does NY office have similar maps like BOX?

 

Yes. Shows nothing for anyone except E LI.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Yes they do

[Ericjcrash]

4 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Does NY office have similar maps like BOX?

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Maps are useless right now since they haven't been updated since 4am.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Maps are useless right now since they haven't been updated since 4am.

Yeah just goes to show their uncertainty with no noonish update.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah just goes to show their uncertainty with no noonish update.

OKX is usually uncertain. But this is just a timing thing with shifts, IT, etc.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OKX is usually uncertain. But this is just a timing thing with shifts, IT, etc.

Yeah there is zero doubt the numbers will be up across the board in their next update.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OKX is usually uncertain. But this is just a timing thing with shifts, IT, etc.

Eh, I remember last year the updates were routinely either 11:50 or 12:50.

[OceanStWx]

We've automated ours to run at least at 04z, 09z, 16z, and 21z.

So it should catch every WPC update. 

We can also manually force it if we dramatically change out snow grids. Not sure how BOX is doing it though.

[J Paul Gordon]

Well, looks like the ground will be white, at least. Maybe a significant amount of white. At least it is not in the damn 40'sF and 50'sF the way it has been over the last few years!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Eh, I remember last year the updates were routinely either 11:50 or 12:50.

Why update before euro? 

[JBinStoughton]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Well, looks like the ground will be white, at least. Maybe a significant amount of white. At least it is not in the damn 40'sF and 50'sF the way it has been over the last few years!

Or 50’s and 60’s!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Might be why they have been awful. Too knee jerk , up and down. No need to rush if you aren’t confident. Wait until the entire 12z cycle is over, analyze....then hoist.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why update before euro? 

These aren't really based on any forecaster input, like there is no one at BOX drawing the map for the high end amount.

What happens is WPC puts out model blend spreads of snowfall. It takes our snowfall forecast and puts it in the middle of the spread, and figures out what the resulting tails will be. Then finds the 90th and 10th percentiles and creates the maps. 

So the Euro data isn't getting in until after 21z anyway. It will be using old Euro data for the afternoon forecasts.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

These aren't really based on any forecaster input, like there is no one at BOX drawing the map for the high end amount.

What happens is WPC puts out model blend spreads of snowfall. It takes our snowfall forecast and puts it in the middle of the spread, and figures out what the resulting tails will be. Then finds the 90th and 10th percentiles and creates the maps. 

So the Euro data isn't getting in until after 21z anyway. It will be using old Euro data for the afternoon forecasts.

Never knew it was old data, but makes sense why I remember these lagging current model output. 

Don’t they still do their AFD before euro and eps though? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

rgem is rolling, lol.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Never knew it was old data, but makes sense why I remember these lagging current model output. 

Don’t they still do their AFD before euro and eps though? 

Depends on what you mean. The long term is almost always updated after the Euro comes out. But the short term guy is updating every 3 hours or so.

You'll probably see more change with the 09z, 16z, 21z snow maps for GYX, since WPC typically makes more changes in those time periods. The 04z WPC tends not to have many changes to QPF and snow.