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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys need to learn to wait before having meltdowns. 

it's amazing is that it's the same group of individuals spanning ... years, too

it's why i sometimes question the rationality to lucidity ratio around here sometimes, like this social media is an escape where people don't have to be intellectually responsible. 

hahaha.   my self included of course. ... 

but, it seems what y'all are describing is the "needle threader" event, incarnate.  all jokes aside, this thing has about as close to 0 wiggle room for errors and perturbations (in the models or reality when push comes to shove) that to employ a cliche ... because of said 'bird' is significant enough (is what I mean..) any change is then all or nothing.

 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's amazing is that it's the same group of individuals spanning ... years, too

it's why i sometimes question the rationality to lucidity ratio around here sometimes, like this social media is an escape where people don't have to be intellectually responsible. 

hahaha.   my self included of course. ... 

but, it seems what y'all are describing is the "needle threader" event, incarnate.  all jokes aside, this thing has about as close to 0 wiggle room for errors and perturbations (in the models or reality when push comes to shove) that to employ a cliche ... a bird flew at right angles to the raob trajectory over Nunavut and the system misses entirely..  It's part and parcel (pun intended..) in the compression headaches, one of the nice little gems forecasters have to deal with is tiny fractals meaning everything.

 

Maybe it's coincidence at 6z and should never give NAM too much credit, but you wonder if there was some specific data ingested to make multiple models jump at once.

Those streams are now roughly 150 miles apart at 0z Sunday, with GFS trending ~50 miles closer. Really sensitive setup and still > 48hrs away. While yesterday's Euro runs suggests an advisory eSNE as our ceiling (and that's most likely given fast flow), this is oh so close to even more.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Maybe it's coincidence at 6z and should never give NAM too much credit, but you wonder if there was some specific data ingested to make multiple models jump at once.

Those streams are now roughly 150 miles apart at 0z Sunday, with GFS trending ~50 miles closer. Really sensitive setup and still > 48hrs away. While yesterday's Euro runs suggests an advisory eSNE as our ceiling, this is oh so close to even more.

Certainly possible ...  Oceanwx has been hitting the RAOBs argument over the last several pages - I suggest anyone that is curious go back and read his insights there and then employ the usual channels for furthering research.  

Thing is, I wonder if the initialization matrix of data has some sort of normalization to ferret out spurious data... For those in the know, obviously you know that the best tool in the game for that sort of smoothing is the ECMWF'  ... but, (may Ocean' knows? ) you'd think that all of them have at least some sort of checks and balances.  And, if so .. how far does that go?

It's amazingly complex... There could be a data point that is not ferreted out because it is unrecognizable to either machine or man, but is total bullchit, and is totally the whole cause for an errant solution.   You wouldn't know - 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Certainly possible ...  Oceanwx has been hitting the RAOBs argument over the last several pages - I suggest anyone that is curious go back and read his insights there and then employ the usual channels for furthering research.  

Thing is, I wonder if the initialization matrix of data has some sort of normalization to ferret out spurious data... For those in the know, obviously you know that the best tool in the game for that sort of smoothing is the ECMWF'  ... but, (may Ocean' knows? ) you'd think that all of them have at least some sort of checks and balances.  And, if so .. how far does that go?

It's amazingly complex... There could be a data point that is not ferreted out because it is unrecognizable to either machine or man, but is total bullchit, and is totally the whole cause for an errant solution.   You wouldn't know - 

We shouldn't be surprised. Sometimes this correction goes the other way to at 12z. I know you know this, but you have high amplitude flow in an area that is not sampled well. Satellite data way up near the Poles isn't the best either. You then have to model the interactions correctly as it dives south and interacts with a positively tilted s/w dragging its heals across the GOM. It's amazing that we can even model something that is close to actuality given all these motions and movement. A true testament to the marvel of how science and technology has come so far in the weather world. Now, lets throw in the fact that we have non-linear processes. That is, take a s/w and just augment it a little bit...and the solution down the road could be a significant difference from what was modeled 6 hrs ago.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I had to go back and skim though the 2-5-16 thread, it is amazing how far back that trended even up to gametime. I know this is not the same pattern, but reading that past event and watching this one possibly unfold, it is almost like having deja vu.

 I was all over that system. Probably my best ‘wish’ in my long prestigious career. 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 I was all over that system. Probably my best ‘wish’ in my long prestigious career. 

I thought it was interesting that the crazy uncle seemed to sniff that one out too..guess time will tell if this one keeps 'trending' for the better or the 6z runs were burps and by Saturday the cape is dealing with cold showers....

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I had to go back and skim though the 2-5-16 thread, it is amazing how far back that trended even up to gametime. I know this is not the same pattern, but reading that past event and watching this one possibly unfold, it is almost like having deja vu.

I used that example a week ago when this first popped up and also posted a look back at a specific way modeling handles Feb 13. Best to chill on meltdowns

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I thought it was interesting that the crazy uncle seemed to sniff that one out too..guess time will tell if this one keeps 'trending' for the better or the 6z runs were burps and by Saturday the cape is dealing with cold showers....

 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I used that example a week ago when this first popped up and also posted a look back at a specific way modeling handles Feb 13. Best to chill on meltdowns

Spanks if the cape gets showers...you're area and mine for that matter will be in a good spot.

 

Yes...Steve you did bring up Feb of 16 and that was a ways back...nice comparison and call.   I hope this can come west some more...be nice to pick up a couple inches by Sunday morning to lay down a bit of cover and set up the next cold shot next week.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We shouldn't be surprised. Sometimes this correction goes the other way to at 12z. I know you know this, but you have high amplitude flow in an area that is not sampled well. Satellite data way up near the Poles isn't the best either. You then have to model the interactions correctly as it dives south and interacts with a positively tilted s/w dragging its heals across the GOM. It's amazing that we can even model something that is close to actuality given all these motions and movement. A true testament to the marvel of how science and technology has come so far in the weather world. Now, lets throw in the fact that we have non-linear processes. That is, take a s/w and just augment it a little bit...and the solution down the road could be a significant difference from what was modeled 6 hrs ago.

It really is.

I was musing in post the other day to someone .. how at some point, we'll reach a maximum skill in forecasting.  Obviously, we are not there yet, but we are on the curve ...  There's always improvements, be it, petaflops, ...employing research, hell, at some point in quantum mechanics will probably get involved to start assessing momenta at the particle level : it's like flying?  humanity is moving along and no one thinks it's possible, now we've flown to the moon and landed (some with force!) Space Shuttles for decades... 

Oh, we'll never forecast 10 days out with 90 % accuracy ...then we're doing it.  When that is?  

But at some point, we won't be able to get better - and it will be at that theoretical limitation because, "emergent fractals" are time dependent.  Unless we figure out time travel, there won't be a way to predict those emergences.  However, about the time sophistication gets us to that theoretical limit, it may not matter - because they will be using energy fields and other exotic you-name-it as yet invented match and tech to control the weather anyway.  

I don't put anything beyond technological evolution's ability to change the landscape of Humanity ... can you imagine describing today's ethos and tapestries to Frontiersman of 1820?  It's just not tenable mentally to them ...so, we would have to be utterly insane with conceit to think we know where this thing is going looking forward.

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