December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z NAM with huge improvements now. As usual, take NAM with a grain of salt. Tries to give warning snows for much of eastern southern New England and then into some of Maine. 

Cant see QPF on EPS but the mean H5 and slp look decent. 

Very similar to the op. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Very similar to the op. 

So maybe advisory type stuff for BOS-PVD and SE. 

Still some time to trend this. 

[H2Otown_WX]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z NAM with huge improvements now. As usual, take NAM with a grain of salt. Tries to give warning snows for much of eastern southern New England and then into some of Maine. 

Cant see QPF on EPS but the mean H5 and slp look decent. 

What were the differences at h5 this run of the NAM Will? It looked to me like the southern vort was trailing behind a bit slower and allowed the northern stream more room to amplify?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

What were the differences at h5 this run of the NAM Will? It looked to me like the southern vort was trailing behind a bit slower and allowed the northern stream more room to amplify?

N stream was a bit deeper this run. I didn't see a huge change in S stream. The S stream might have held together slightly better. 

The changes are subtle but they matter. There's a lot of moisture down south so tilting this a little sooner can make for a large difference in sensible wx. 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

N stream was a bit deeper this run. I didn't see a huge change in S stream. The S stream might have held together slightly better. 

The changes are subtle but they matter. There's a lot of moisture down south so tilting this a little sooner can make for a large difference in sensible wx. 

Yeah I was going to say, upon further inspection, looked like the southern energy interacted more with the northern stream since the northern stream trough was a little deeper. Should be interesting to track what happens today, hopefully this run is onto something.

[Damage In Tolland]

2-4” w/ c SNE 

3-6” E SNE 

[CoastalWx]

6z GFS big shift west. 

[CoastalWx]

You guys need to learn to wait before having meltdowns. 

[wxsniss]

Haven't had time to post but def would not write this off

Euro 0z vs 12z digs northern stream slightly better but another tick would be solid advisory+ for eSNE

Nam 6z vs 0z... both digs northern stream better and sharper trough + ticks southern stream west by 12z Sat and oh so close to a much bigger hit

Really would not take much and plenty of time for the necessary ticks

[ineedsnow]

6z nam and gfs.lol this os gping to be a long season

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys need to learn to wait before having meltdowns. 

It’s crazy I know, but I have been steady on this all the way. Confident we are all snow covered , but also confident on it not being big event.

[dendrite]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys need to learn to wait before having meltdowns. 

It happens with every. single. storm.

weenies never learn to let it play out.

[weathafella]

So I wake up and note Euro looking decent and fully expecting the next run of NAM and GFS to follow suit.  They did.  NAM and GFS truly blow.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Watch and learn from your experiences, these systems never behave accordingly

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The TFlizz “meh” or “throw in towel” jackpot as usual. Never fails.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’ve seen no meltdowns 

 

 

edit.  Never mind.  Just looked at the Mayhem thread.   Jeebus

[DFRI]

Do you guys think much will stick to driveways??  Hoping not to plow.....planning a vacation tomorrow.

 

[WintersComing]

Do you guys think much will stick to driveways??  Hoping not to plow.....planning a vacation tomorrow.

 

Where do you live?


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[DFRI]

2/3'rd the way down Rhode Island.  Map is in signature.

 

[WintersComing]

May be too early to call but 3-4 inch is certainly possible


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[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

May be too early to call but 3-4 inch is certainly possible


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GFS was nice for CT.

[WintersComing]

GFS was nice for CT.

Ya was good run. Hopefully see a better consensus at the mid day runs


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[CoastalWx]

BUFKIT actually had decent lift in the DGZ across a lot of the area on the NAM and GFS.

[Whineminster]

Ok for me, but noose-worthy west of the river. 

 

 

[TheCloser24]

NWS BOSTON: Tech Post: Snow Potential] Latest 6z model guidance has increased the potential for accumulating snow even back into the interior Sat/Sat night. Do not want to jump on one set of model runs, but will wait for the 12z guidance later this morning to evaluate trends.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Ok for me, but noose-worthy west of the river. 

 

 

We're used to it.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We're used to it.  

You'll probably get some of trends are correct.

[dryslot]

0z Euro was a definite improvement, Along with the 06z runs so far, Today's runs and tonight's should give us a decent picture of how far west this will go, Looked like we are getting a little quicker phase which is a good thing.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Watch and learn from your experiences, these systems never behave accordingly

Thank you.  I’ll try.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thank you.  I’ll try.

I wonder if he heeds his own advice.