December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[WintersComing]

Ya base of that trough looks like it’s digging hard and then presto!! Lol


.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Harvey is in the non-event camp.  Going light snow/mix in SE areas, rain on Cape and little to nothing N & W of I-95.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Harvey is in the non-event camp.  Going light snow/mix in SE areas, rain on Cape and little to nothing N & W of I-95.

Sounds about right.

[ariof]

54 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just a reminder

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Harvey is in the non-event camp.  Going light snow/mix in SE areas, rain on Cape and little to nothing N & W of I-95.

I’d buy that.    Still, worth tracking.  Especially for folks in your hood

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It went 300 miles to the northeast lol. If you compare the panels for the same time (06z Saturday).

It flattened the flow to the NE

[Baroclinic Zone]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It went 300 miles to the northeast lol. If you compare the panels for the same time (06z Saturday).

See that.  All I can think is that it's a data sparse area so there is a lot of "filling in the blanks".  I'm taking an OP run with a grain of sand right now.  00z and 12z tomorrow will shed a lot on this "threat".  It's a precarious setup with little confidence.  I feel better where I am on seeing some snow.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

See that.  All I can think is that it's a data sparse area so there is a lot of "filling in the blanks".  I'm taking an OP run with a grain of sand right now.  00z and 12z tomorrow will shed a lot on this "threat".  It's a precarious setup with little confidence.  I feel better where I am on seeing some snow.

You sit in one of the better spots no doub't, Others will need more changes with buckling the flow to the east.

[ORH_wxman]

I'd prob go slightly more aggressive than Harvey's current forecast...esp for I-95 and interior SE MA, but no need to say anything too ominous yet.

[WintersComing]

Don't think GFS has a really good handle on things yet.  Not saying its gonna go Crazy uncle but seems to be struggling with the H5

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It flattened the flow to the NE

By scooting NE at 18z, it allows the nrn stream to help buckle the flow.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd prob slightly more aggressive than Harvey's current forecast...esp for I-95 and interior SE MA, but no need to say anything too ominous yet.

Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2.

[WintersComing]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

By scooting NE at 18z, it allows the nrn stream to help buckle the flow.

Doesn't going further NE help kick it OTS?

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

By scooting NE at 18z, it allows the nrn stream to help buckle the flow.

Yeah, You can see the difference when you toggle it forward, It looks to go more to the north then NE

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

These progressive regimes with positively troughs are tough for models to handle.

[weathafella]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2.

Also-he has 2 days to update if needed.

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2.

Yeah i mean, it's still 3 days out. Plenty of time to change things tomorrow and Friday if the threat really ramps up. Prob don't want to get everyone riled up for plowable snowfall this weekend and then have to say "just kidding, only flurries" on Friday night.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i mean, it's still 3 days out. Plenty of time to change things tomorrow and Friday if the threat really ramps up. Prob don't want to get everyone riled up for plowable snowfall this weekend and then have to say "just kidding, only flurries" on Friday night.

He could just start high and adjust higher when needed.

[CT Rain]

NWS is chucking as usual. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Based on available guidance and trends today,, that looks good overall as that west trend shows no signs of stopping yet  

[TheCloser24]

From NWS:

 

 

[Henry's Weather]

So two camps on interpretation of energy: CMC, UKIE, Navy, Navgem have more consolidated energy, leading to more buckling, while GFS, Euro, Nam have more elongated southern piece, favoring an OTS track.  Am I correct? 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

So two camps on interpretation of energy: CMC, UKIE, Navy, Navgem have more consolidated energy, leading to more buckling, while GFS, Euro, Nam have more elongated southern piece, favoring an OTS track.  Am I correct? 

Margusity?

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Margusity?

Nope, just a weenie.

[Spaizzo]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Margusity?

That was what I thought at first too!!!

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Nope, just a weenie.

Marguisty is, yes.

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

NWS is chucking as usual. 

 

Wait... what?  This is either brilliant or incredibly bad. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Brilliant. Best Chances Danbury to Keene.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd prob go slightly more aggressive than Harvey's current forecast...esp for I-95 and interior SE MA, but no need to say anything too ominous yet.

Agreed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Wait... what?  This is either brilliant or incredibly bad. 

they must think eps moving to the canadian/french/german/british combo is a lock.