December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[Baroclinic Zone]

Time to fire up our 1st winter storm thread of the 2017/18 season.  Could be the 1st accumulating snows for many.

12z Euro/EPS and 18z GFS/GEFS are advertising a modest event at this point.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Couple images to help.  For any new posters, try not to hotlink images.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That gfs ensemble mean would probably mean solid advisory for most of E Ma

[SR Airglow]

This reminds me of a similar event last winter where the ensembles were consistently more bullish than the op runs(I believe the GEFS led the way there as well) and eventually we saw the op runs come back to a hit in the short range once the previous system exited and the vort got into sampling territory. Not saying the same will happen again here, but given that this is the second system in the pipeline behind tonights rain(always focus on one system at a time), the relative bullishness of the ensembles, and the lack of sampling of the data, I'm not ready to write off an advisory level snowfall for portions of the region. I think you really want to see positive improvement tomorrow though as the data should be moving into better sampling then and the variance on the ensembles is centered around tomorrow as was discussed in the earlier thread.

As of now I'd probably give it a 1 in 3 chance of being anything more than some flurries/shsn, but then again I wouldn't be shocked to see this come back to a region-wide decent event. Regardless, feels nice to be tracking snow events again.

[ajisai]

Small shift can mean a big difference for BOS-PVD corridor. Wonder if the west trend of the models will continue?

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ajisai said:

Small shift can mean a big difference for BOS-PVD corridor. Wonder if the west trend of the models will continue?

For us interior folk, I hope so.     Days and days of meh otherwise

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, ajisai said:

Small shift can mean a big difference for BOS-PVD corridor. Wonder if the west trend of the models will continue?

Don't think we are the "trend" part yet until we establish a few consistent runs of a more westward track on modeling.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I wouldn't be shocked if this doesn't trend and instead just went boom on a model then another model goes boom.

I dont believe its likely but i believe the ceiling for this much higher than folks believe. 

The Nam at 0z looks fascinating with H5 closed off near Gulf coast.

Yes i know its the Nam but its got my interest, especially the 18z Gefs. Keep trending that vort strong near gulf and ya.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wouldn't be shocked if this doesn't trend and instead just went boom on a model then another model goes boom.

I dont believe its likely but i believe the ceiling for this much higher than folks believe. 

The Nam at 0z looks fascinating with H5 closed off near Gulf coast.

Yes i know its the Nam but its got my interest, especially the 18z Gefs. Keep trending that vort strong near gulf and ya.

It wouldn't take a ridiculous turn of events to get a widespread warning event...the individual ensemble members on the GFS and EPS show how it could happen.

[#NoPoles]

Stop stealing my snow. I want this one.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Stop stealing my snow. I want this one.

I’ll trade you this one for next week. Looks advisory at best for the east. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is looking flatter for Friday night/early Saturday.

[dryslot]

This is not the run you want if you want to see snow for Sat.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It wouldn't take a ridiculous turn of events to get a widespread war ning event...the individual ensemble members on the GFS and EPS show how it could happen.

Are we looking For a stronger more consolidated vort in the deep south or what

Do those individual Ensembles share that Create higher totals

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs doesn’t get snow off the cape...congrats on the flurries for James 

 

Not what we wanted to see

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Flatter and the follow up kicks east, meh. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Are we looking For a stronger more consolidated vort in the deep south or what

Do those individual Ensembles share that Create higher totals

We want the thing to dig for oil down south...and yeah, more consolidated. The western ridge is a bit flatter this run which affects how much it digs and we also see the vorticity kind of sheared and trying to hang back in the south which doesn't allow the trough to sharpen as much as the 18z run.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

This thread cleared out fast lol

[ajisai]

Small shift can mean a big difference for BOS-PVD corridor. Wonder if the west trend of the models will continue?

I jinxed it RIP

[ORH_wxman]

Sunday ends up looking a bit better this run...not all that exciting but would prob get most people on the scoreboard with that look.

[weathafella]

CMC is a lot more robust-snowy Saturday for most.

[SnowHole413]

CMC is on to something

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

CMC is a lot more robust-snowy Saturday for most.

That was a huge jump by the GGEM. That's prob advisory for most of SNE.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CMC is a lot more robust-snowy Saturday for most.

That wouldn't be to bad, That's the direction we want to see the GFS head too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

And then the CMC comes in with a widespread advisory for the entire region... maybe even low end warning.

Big change for that model

[CT Rain]

Both the 00z operational GFS and the 00z op GGEM are within the range of solutions shown by the latest GFS ensembles. 

I imagine will see a tick east on the 00z GEFS but who knows. Still too soon to write this off. 

[weathafella]

even GFS gets us on the board Saturday late night/Sunday morning.

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

even GFS gets us on the board Saturday late night/Sunday morning.

GGEM used to be fun with the black and white charts and us manually adding hours to unlock the hidden extended. That's a warning event on the GGEM fwiw

[Ginx snewx]

JC from Columbia CT is MIA here hope he's ok..

GFS just can't get any SW to consolidate,  hope it's a software issue. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

JC from Columbia CT is MIA here hope he's ok..

GFS just can't get any SW to consolidate,  hope it's a software issue. 

He posted in the model thread yesterday i believe.