December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Noyes= #forgettable

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[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

I am having a tough time accepting Noyes map. Honestly.

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Yeah too light near the coast imho. Guess we will find out soon enough. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:25 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Did you look at the RGEM?  heaviest snows are well E of the CT river and very little snow in ALY.

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I’m not looking at qpf no. Those depictions won’t show the deform 

[dryslot]

The ukie pretty much has been on this one from the get go.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:27 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah too light near the coast imho. Guess we will find out soon enough. 

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Hey I'll be the first to give credit...but I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not looking at qpf no. Those depictions won’t show the deform 

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Take a look at H7 RH.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:25 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Did you look at the RGEM?  heaviest snows are well E of the CT river and very little snow in ALY.

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This is a more sw/ne gradient and not w/e imo. Along 84 is fine, less nw and more se. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

Hey I'll be the first to give credit...but I'm not sure I agree with the reasoning.

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I feel like winds are too northerly...like maybe out on cape Ann and some of the most exposed spots could have issues but I'd think most are fine. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/8/2017 at 4:29 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is a more sw/ne gradient and not w/e imo. Along 84 is fine, less nw and more se. 

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Agreed.  I see the NW Hills of RI up into the Nofolk/Blue Hills being the bread-winners.

[dendrite]

Warning criteria wouldn’t shock me up here. NAM/GFS have max lift up here in the DGZ. A quick 0.30” of QPF could easily be 6”. I think if I had to I’d go 4-8” for CON and 3-6” at the casa...a little more bullish than I usually am. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 2:36 PM, dendrite said:

Dewpoints climb as the air moistens. So 36/26 air won't cool to 26 assuming no advection.

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Yea I was speaking more to modeled DPs at time of saturation

[NeonPeon]

I'd be shocked if I get more than 2 inches of slush.  I'm just happy for my kid to see his first snow.  Let the brainwashing begin.

[dryslot]

12z Ukie cut back the precip from the 0z roid run, Looks like it went a couple tics east as well following the other 12z suite.

[CoastalWx]

Ukie has the 850 low like just east of the canal..lol. Still zoinked.

[SnowHole413]

I think I’ll wait for the euro, then whatever that is blend it with the rgem and gfs and call it a storm. I’ll be happy for 4 inches, the other day I just wanted some snow so I’m happy with anything white

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/8/2017 at 5:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ukie has the 850 low like just east of the canal..lol. Still zoinked.

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?  ... 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah Ukie held serve 

[moneypitmike]

I'm thinking 1-2" for western Franklin County, maybe a lolly to 4" as you head to the extreme eastern end.

[Ginx snewx]

Overachiever in the south,  models blew away human forecasters down there. Mauer posted comparisons from forecasts and reports

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 5:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah Ukie held serve 

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Been on the 4 to 6 train for 3 days myself, lollies to 8, you could get on a deform band as it wraps up in the GOM

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/8/2017 at 5:26 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Been on the 4 to 6 train for 3 days myself, lollies to 8, you could get on a deform band as it wraps up in the GOM

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Based on H7.. deform band looks west of me. Possibly as far west as DXR or WBY

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 5:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on H7.. deform band looks west of me. Possibly as far west as DXR or WBY

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We will see what the King says in a few. That slight jog East is perfect for us

[CoastalWx]

I know everyone is hyping the deform band, but the soundings from the GFS and NAM aren't exactly screaming dendrite deliciousness. Some funny games played near that level in terms of subsidence and dryness at times. Good lift below it though.

[CoastalWx]

Euro may even be a tick west of 00z. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 5:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

I know everyone is hyping the deform band, but the soundings from the GFS and NAM aren't exactly screaming dendrite deliciousness. Some funny games played near that level in terms of subsidence and dryness at times. Good lift below it though.

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Whose hyping? We are only taking a couple of tenths difference. Pretty uniform .4 to .75 seems a lock. 

[dryslot]

Looks like the 12z Euro not going to back down this run, It may even be a tic or two west with the trough being a little NW of the 0z run.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 5:53 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Whose hyping? We are only taking a couple of tenths difference. Pretty uniform .4 to .75 seems a lock. 

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Everyone is talking about it. Just saying it may not be the classic one on those soundings. I can't see euro soundings though.

[TalcottWx]

Lol. Put off having new tires installed one more week, and here we are. 

As long as I get to Town Fair Tire early I should be able to get my new tires put on, right? 

[kdxken]

  On 12/8/2017 at 5:55 PM, sbos_wx said:

Lol. Put off having new tires installed one more week, and here we are. 

As long as I get to Town Fair Tire early I should be able to get my new tires put on, right? 

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 Good luck with that . 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Deformation band = this year's Kuchera