December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)

[WxBlue]

  On 12/8/2017 at 2:52 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I like my spot in this one. Hoping for 6"+. But will be pretty happy as long as I get at least 4. 

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Same here. ORH to DAW should be a lot of fun for this one.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Guess you forgot that Sunday is two days from now. 

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Wineminster??

[CoastalWx]

RGEM looks pretty good so far. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:04 PM, Whineminster said:

lol.  Well BOX says it starts late tonight and is over by noon. 

First significant snowfall for the region will occur late tonight
and into early Sunday morning.

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Lets just skip Saturdays now. 

[CoastalWx]

RGEM is solid for CT. For those QPF queens. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

RGEM is solid for CT. For those QPF queens. 

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IYO.. where does the deform band set up?

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

IYO.. where does the deform band set up?

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Depends on the model. Might want to wait on that for the 12z stuff. Earlier I mentioned where I thought it may go. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

IYO.. where does the deform band set up?

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Right over Crystal Lake. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

RGEM is solid for CT. For those QPF queens. 

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Nice little goodbye party for eastern areas too. Takes a while to leave there as the upper level support is to the southwest. This run would def be widespread low end warning stuff with prob some lollis to 10. 

[Whineminster]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

Wineminster??

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LOL.  Reading comprehension FTL. 

[dryslot]

FWIW

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little goodbye party for eastern areas too. Takes a while to leave there as the upper level support is to the southwest. This run would def be widespread low end warning stuff with prob some lollis to 10. 

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Looks like an 8 spot thrown up in Cumberland, RI on the TT 10:1 graphics.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:12 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Nice little goodbye party for eastern areas too. Takes a while to leave there as the upper level support is to the southwest. This run would def be widespread low end warning stuff with prob some lollis to 10. 

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Yep, should look great in many areas come Sunday morning. Whether you get 2" or 8".

[CarverWX]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:13 PM, dryslot said:

FWIW

 

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Wow really walking the line with this run. Could get 2 or 6

[JBinStoughton]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:13 PM, dryslot said:

FWIW

 

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That would JP me.  Lock it in lol. 

[dryslot]

And actually, Reggie has a wheelhouse and we are just getting inside the door now.

[OSUmetstud]

Loves that NC to ME will have more snow on the season than yyt lol.  

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:15 PM, CarverWX said:

Wow really walking the line with this run. Could get 2 or 6

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I think you may mix or flip to rain for a bit. It gets mild near 850. It's certainly not washed away, and you'll flip back to snow after 4-6z or so.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:15 PM, CarverWX said:

Wow really walking the line with this run. Could get 2 or 6

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You're in S Carver, correct?  I'd hedge on lower amounts drawing a line from New Bedford to Downtown Plymouth.  I'd say you look good for 2-3".

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cory jackpot?

 

[CarverWX]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:19 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

You're in S Carver, correct?  I'd hedge on lower amounts drawing a line from New Bedford to Downtown Plymouth.  I'd say you look good for 2-3".

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No I am in north carver right near Rt44 and Middleboro.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:22 PM, CarverWX said:

No I am in north carver right near Rt44 and Middleboro.

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Much better spot than.  You're more in line with me than.  I'm leaning towards 3-5".

[TheSnowman]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:13 PM, dryslot said:

 

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Well look at that.  A Jackpot Bullseye on The Snowman.  Accordion Tunes Commence?  

 

Im driving back from Montreal tomorrow so I'm trying to figure wheather to go more 91 to 90 back vs. the usual 89-93-495 back as it's too Far East.  But ALSO I actually need to be in Boston for a concert at MIT so I may never be home for this one.... 

 

Here we go AGAIN with that crap of me never being home on a good one  until I change plans and rush back and it turns into a suck storm.  

[WxBlue]

Given that I'm not a winter weather savvy like y'all (yet), I'll go ahead and ask this: how good/reliable is RGEM comparing to NAM? Definitely not a model I use often.

[dryslot]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:24 PM, TheSnowman said:

Well look at that.  A Jackpot Bullseye on The Snowman.  Accordion Tunes Commence?  

 

Im driving back from Montreal tomorrow so I'm trying to figure wheather to go more 91 to 90 back vs. the usual 89-93-495 back as it's too Far East.  But ALSO I actually need to be in Boston for a concert at MIT so I may never be home for this one.... 

 

Here we go AGAIN with that crap of me never being home on a good one  until I change plans and rush back and it turns into a suck storm.  

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Bang a couple out on the squeezebox Corey!!

[dryslot]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:25 PM, WxBlue said:

Given that I'm not a winter weather savvy like y'all (yet), I'll go ahead and ask this: how good/reliable is RGEM comparing to NAM? Definitely not a model I use often.

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Very reliable inside 36 hrs in most cases, Better then the Nam.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:25 PM, WxBlue said:

Given that I'm not a winter weather savvy like y'all (yet), I'll go ahead and ask this: how good/reliable is RGEM comparing to NAM? Definitely not a model I use often.

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Night and day difference.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:26 PM, dryslot said:

Very reliable inside 36 hrs in most cases, Better then the Nam.

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Yeah overall it is more reliable. Although sometimes I find it's a bit too juiced...but it is not prone to the wild swings the NAM can have. It's thermal profiles are decent too. 

[dryslot]

  On 12/8/2017 at 3:27 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah overall it is more reliable. Although sometimes I find it's a bit too juiced...but it is not prone to the wild swings the NAM can have. It's thermal profiles are decent too. 

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Yeah, It can have its hiccups but its less prone to the wild swings as you said, There was a couple events last winter it layed an egg on, But all and all, It is way better then the Nam.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Zoomed in 12zRGEM.  Higher totals are actually along the rt 24 corridorS of BOS.  Coastal front enhancement and the ULL.