ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:17 PM, CoastalWx said: 1.25" QPF on the NAM. We shave off. Expand Yeah...too bad it's prob not real...you'd have about a foot of man cement topped off by an inch ro two of currier and ives powder Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:17 PM, CoastalWx said: 1.25" QPF on the NAM. We shave off. Expand Literally stealing people's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:19 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: Im not saying its a bad call; Im saying its a conservative or a cautious call. There's no denying there is a strong nw trend underway, and I think those totals will be raised later.. I think its a reasonable call for now; Id also call it a cautious or conservative call. Thats not a bad thing.. ok? Expand It’s not conservative, ok? I know we want big numbers up on the maps right away but the guy is the chief weenie met for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:21 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...too bad it's prob not real...you'd have about a foot of man cement topped off by an inch ro two of currier and ives powder Sunday morning. Expand LOL, yeah one could wish. I do think you're in a good spot. Any nearby Chinese restaurants for Scorpion Bowls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:21 PM, OceanStWx said: Literally stealing people's snow. Expand We pray, but we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:22 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, yeah one could wish. I do think you're in a good spot. Any nearby Chinese restaurants for Scorpion Bowls? Expand Actually we do have one....lol. I doubt you'll need to run from taint there though...maybe deal with a few hours of 33F paste would be my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Looking at H5 on the NAM, this is pretty close to a big event. The southern stream s/w is in a good spot to phase with and cause amplification and negative tilting of the northern stream wave. That would lead to a stronger, closer, and slower SLP. Just need the southern wave to get slightly out in front of the northern wave. This run already largely achieves this. But it has an even higher ceiling. Lots of moisture coming straight out of the Gulf with that southern wave. I could see it pumping the s/w ridge ahead of it, causing the northern wave to dig down behind it. Curious if the other models will follow this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:22 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, yeah one could wish. I do think you're in a good spot. Any nearby Chinese restaurants for Scorpion Bowls? Expand Nice little brewery in Hopkinton. Start Line ripping beers while it’s ripping dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:21 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not conservative, ok? I know we want big numbers up on the maps right away but the guy is the chief weenie met for a reason. Expand Considering the moisture buildup down south, the incredible jet, and the strong west trend underway, It's on the conservative side, and I think he'd tell you that. Its also probably a good first call.. Conservative is not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:21 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not conservative, ok? I know we want big numbers up on the maps right away but the guy is the chief weenie met for a reason. Expand I would say it's being prudent. We have the benefit on this board of being able to change our thinking without catching (a lot of) flak. Remember Ryan doesn't get to walk back a high total once he puts it out there. It's much better to ramp up a forecast, than back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 8:59 PM, Bostonseminole said: box updated their maps, general 4-6" Expand Take em' up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:26 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: Considering the moisture buildup down south, the incredible jet, and the strong west trend underway, It's on the conservative side, and I think he'd tell you that. Its also probably a good first call.. Conservative is not bad! Expand I think its a good first call. I'm sure he'll put the disclaimer that amounts have the potential to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 James and I will be counting our rain drops...it was better for us when it was just a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:26 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: Considering the moisture buildup down south, the incredible jet, and the strong west trend underway, It's on the conservative side, and I think he'd tell you that. Its also probably a good first call.. Conservative is not bad! Expand I’m a lefty so I beg to differ. It’s a good first call, leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:17 PM, CoastalWx said: 1.25" QPF on the NAM. We shave off. Expand I think 6-10" is the ceiling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:29 PM, #NoPoles said: James and I will be counting our rain drops...it was better for us when it was just a whiff. Expand Sloppy inch or 2 for you still..i think. But any additional amping and we're toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:31 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m a lefty so I beg to differ. It’s a good first call, leave it at that. Expand LOL... dont turn this into a political discussion.. Prudent, cautious, conservative, whatever you want to call it .. You act like Im calling it a bad first call . Im not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:27 PM, OceanStWx said: I would say it's being prudent. We have the benefit on this board of being able to change our thinking without catching (a lot of) flak. Remember Ryan doesn't get to walk back a high total once he puts it out there. It's much better to ramp up a forecast, than back off. Expand Yes, my point. He can increase by an inch or teo tomorrow if things still look good. Anyone thinking 8-12” is doable off one nammy run needs the reach around, to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:32 PM, CTWeatherFreak said: LOL... dont turn this into a political discussion.. Prudent, cautious, conservative, whatever you want to call it .. You act like Im calling it a bad first call . Im not.. Expand Ha. What would your first call have been....if you had all of CT watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:31 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Sloppy inch or 2 for you still..i think. But any additional amping and we're toast Expand PYM will do better imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:31 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Sloppy inch or 2 for you still..i think. But any additional amping and we're toast Expand I think your fine... this run still looks basically 100% fine for folks west of the canal. I feel pretty good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GFS off to a juicy start down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 gfs following suite lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 6-10" is the ceiling here. Expand That's probably a good 90th percentile range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:34 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ha. What would your first call have been....if you had all of CT watching? Expand Well, Box just put up the following: "We will have preliminary Max forecast of 4-6 inches from NE CT and central Massachusetts to interior southeast MA, a bit less toward CT valley." I think 2-4 for the state as a whole will be ok to start, but I think they will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:27 PM, OceanStWx said: I would say it's being prudent. We have the benefit on this board of being able to change our thinking without catching (a lot of) flak. Remember Ryan doesn't get to walk back a high total once he puts it out there. It's much better to ramp up a forecast, than back off. Expand That's exactly it, 48+ hours out you just get the message out to the general public that it is going to snow and accumulate and then tomorrow is plenty of time to adjust upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:27 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Take em' up. Expand We be movin on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 9:38 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said: We be movin on up. Expand Probably more so for you then I cut everybody gets in on some fun as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 And, the GFS follows suit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 I do have to stop myself from tweeting a hot dog bun at Ryan from our NWS account when I see his posts scroll through our feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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