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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 12/7/2017 at 12:36 AM, powderfreak said:

Maybe my comment was a bit harsh, and the deeper cold is west so regardless of QPF they feel further west has a higher chance at more snow....it's just surprising.

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Very surprised they have a > 4” stripe already, even at that percentage. I see that chance for here as maybe 5% at best.

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  On 12/7/2017 at 12:36 AM, powderfreak said:

Maybe my comment was a bit harsh, and the deeper cold is west so regardless of QPF they feel further west has a higher chance at more snow....it's just surprising.

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That’s only through 00z Sunday too. Some of the more amped models are still snowing after that.

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  On 12/7/2017 at 2:40 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Verbatim it is probably going to still be a putrid looking solution but it's a positive step...I'm not sure it really means much anyway given it is the NAM after 48 hours. 

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Yeah I took it as a good sign. If the southern s/w just tightened up a little more along with the nrn stream improvements, would be a good solution.

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  On 12/7/2017 at 2:42 AM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I took it as a good sign. If the southern s/w just tightened up a little more, that would be a good solution.

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Yeah it dragged its heels just a bit. Otherwise that will rip a really nice ribbon of precip/lift almost due north. Won't take much...we saw the very late last ditch effort on the 12z euro too and it still managed borderline advisory almost to BOS-PVD. 

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  On 12/7/2017 at 2:36 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup.

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Ray, I am not sure he is saying the right thing for this Friday/Saturday system, if the energy is being sampled over Alaska that would be for the mid week storm, not this weekend's storm, our energy wants to be sampled tonight over Northern Canada, northwest of Hudson Bay, that is our energy for this weekend

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  On 12/7/2017 at 3:23 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, I am not sure he is saying the right thing for this Friday/Saturday system, if the energy is being sampled over Alaska that would be for the mid week storm, not this weekend's storm, our energy wants to be sampled tonight over Northern Canada, northwest of Hudson Bay, that is our energy for this weekend

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The the observation network is not as dense near the arctic, so we will avail ourselves of denser sounding data as it travels southward. 

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