WintersComing Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Ya base of that trough looks like it’s digging hard and then presto!! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 Harvey is in the non-event camp. Going light snow/mix in SE areas, rain on Cape and little to nothing N & W of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:19 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Harvey is in the non-event camp. Going light snow/mix in SE areas, rain on Cape and little to nothing N & W of I-95. Expand Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 9:28 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Just a reminder Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:19 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Harvey is in the non-event camp. Going light snow/mix in SE areas, rain on Cape and little to nothing N & W of I-95. Expand I’d buy that. Still, worth tracking. Especially for folks in your hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:16 PM, CoastalWx said: It went 300 miles to the northeast lol. If you compare the panels for the same time (06z Saturday). Expand It flattened the flow to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2017 Author Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:16 PM, CoastalWx said: It went 300 miles to the northeast lol. If you compare the panels for the same time (06z Saturday). Expand See that. All I can think is that it's a data sparse area so there is a lot of "filling in the blanks". I'm taking an OP run with a grain of sand right now. 00z and 12z tomorrow will shed a lot on this "threat". It's a precarious setup with little confidence. I feel better where I am on seeing some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:27 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: See that. All I can think is that it's a data sparse area so there is a lot of "filling in the blanks". I'm taking an OP run with a grain of sand right now. 00z and 12z tomorrow will shed a lot on this "threat". It's a precarious setup with little confidence. I feel better where I am on seeing some snow. Expand You sit in one of the better spots no doub't, Others will need more changes with buckling the flow to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 I'd prob go slightly more aggressive than Harvey's current forecast...esp for I-95 and interior SE MA, but no need to say anything too ominous yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Don't think GFS has a really good handle on things yet. Not saying its gonna go Crazy uncle but seems to be struggling with the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:26 PM, dryslot said: It flattened the flow to the NE Expand By scooting NE at 18z, it allows the nrn stream to help buckle the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'd prob slightly more aggressive than Harvey's current forecast...esp for I-95 and interior SE MA, but no need to say anything too ominous yet. Expand Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:30 PM, CoastalWx said: By scooting NE at 18z, it allows the nrn stream to help buckle the flow. Expand Doesn't going further NE help kick it OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:30 PM, CoastalWx said: By scooting NE at 18z, it allows the nrn stream to help buckle the flow. Expand Yeah, You can see the difference when you toggle it forward, It looks to go more to the north then NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 These progressive regimes with positively troughs are tough for models to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:32 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2. Expand Also-he has 2 days to update if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:32 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah I was thinking that...I can't fault him...but I don't see a glaring reason to differ much from the euro guidance right now. You can err on the side of caution and still give that area maybe 1-2. Expand Yeah i mean, it's still 3 days out. Plenty of time to change things tomorrow and Friday if the threat really ramps up. Prob don't want to get everyone riled up for plowable snowfall this weekend and then have to say "just kidding, only flurries" on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:57 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah i mean, it's still 3 days out. Plenty of time to change things tomorrow and Friday if the threat really ramps up. Prob don't want to get everyone riled up for plowable snowfall this weekend and then have to say "just kidding, only flurries" on Friday night. Expand He could just start high and adjust higher when needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 NWS is chucking as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 Based on available guidance and trends today,, that looks good overall as that west trend shows no signs of stopping yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 From NWS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 So two camps on interpretation of energy: CMC, UKIE, Navy, Navgem have more consolidated energy, leading to more buckling, while GFS, Euro, Nam have more elongated southern piece, favoring an OTS track. Am I correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 11:47 PM, Henry's Weather said: So two camps on interpretation of energy: CMC, UKIE, Navy, Navgem have more consolidated energy, leading to more buckling, while GFS, Euro, Nam have more elongated southern piece, favoring an OTS track. Am I correct? Expand Margusity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 11:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Margusity? Expand Nope, just a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted December 6, 2017 Share Posted December 6, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 11:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Margusity? Expand That was what I thought at first too!!! On 12/6/2017 at 11:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 11:51 PM, Henry's Weather said: Nope, just a weenie. Expand Marguisty is, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 11:05 PM, CT Rain said: NWS is chucking as usual. Expand Wait... what? This is either brilliant or incredibly bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Brilliant. Best Chances Danbury to Keene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/6/2017 at 10:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'd prob go slightly more aggressive than Harvey's current forecast...esp for I-95 and interior SE MA, but no need to say anything too ominous yet. Expand Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 On 12/7/2017 at 12:00 AM, powderfreak said: Wait... what? This is either brilliant or incredibly bad. Expand they must think eps moving to the canadian/french/german/british combo is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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