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December 9, 2017 - Storm Discussion (Breaking the seal on the season for many)


Baroclinic Zone

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  On 12/6/2017 at 9:11 PM, West Mtn NY said:

Dude. You predicted 6.5" for NYC 4hrs ago? 

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Yeah, that was post UK, I would've bet good money the Euro would'v been significantly better and the NAM would hold serve. It's now even worse off than the GFS. More likely 6 flakes. I was wrong for buying the UKs idea.

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  On 12/6/2017 at 9:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

In all honesty, the NAM is so unstable. I really don't weigh this much whether it came west 50 miles or east 50 miles. We'll see what the 18zgfs does. 

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You're going to miss it when it's gone.

But I really don't know what fundamentally about it causes this firehose effect at the end of the run. I mean it's a similar resolution to the Euro, and the Euro doesn't get that wild at day 7. 

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  On 12/6/2017 at 9:34 PM, OceanStWx said:

You're going to miss it when it's gone.

But I really don't know what fundamentally about it causes this firehose effect at the end of the run. I mean it's a similar resolution to the Euro, and the Euro doesn't get that wild at day 7. 

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Being nonhydrostatic? 

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  On 12/6/2017 at 10:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

That was a better look for sure. Not that you expect a jump in 6 hrs, but compare the look from hr 66-72 vs hr 72-78 at 12z. A better look overall of the low from better H5 consolidation.

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Yeah HR 66 h5 is considerably better than 12z just gets together too late.

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