BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: GSP Discussion... In response to encroaching positive tilt l/wv trough and developing upper jet dynamics, pcpn shield is progged to expand and develop back northward into the cwfa Thursday night. 05/12z SuperBlend and WPC guidance limits the increase to just chance pops thru the piedmont by daybreak Friday. Deeper forcing should increase into Friday with favorable upper jet positioning. Based on this, have increased precip chances to mid-chance with the best response slated to be atop the piedmont. Critical 85-70h thickness values should hover along the southeast fringe of the cwfa through Friday...a rough estimate of the rain/snow line for the bulk of the event. However, warm blyr temperatures makes it questionable on just how much snow would accumulate SE of I-85 where the liquid equiv QPF is the greatest. At this point, best combination of QPF and favorable temperatures looks to be North and NW of CLT where if any heavier bands are able to form would produce an inch of snow accumulation. Might need to make the trip to McAdenville on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: GSP Discussion... In response to encroaching positive tilt l/wv trough and developing upper jet dynamics, pcpn shield is progged to expand and develop back northward into the cwfa Thursday night. 05/12z SuperBlend and WPC guidance limits the increase to just chance pops thru the piedmont by daybreak Friday. Deeper forcing should increase into Friday with favorable upper jet positioning. Based on this, have increased precip chances to mid-chance with the best response slated to be atop the piedmont. Critical 85-70h thickness values should hover along the southeast fringe of the cwfa through Friday...a rough estimate of the rain/snow line for the bulk of the event. However, warm blyr temperatures makes it questionable on just how much snow would accumulate SE of I-85 where the liquid equiv QPF is the greatest. At this point, best combination of QPF and favorable temperatures looks to be North and NW of CLT where if any heavier bands are able to form would produce an inch of snow accumulation. Bold for them at this lead! But great write up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Might need to make the trip to McAdenville on Friday. Lol! See snow and Christmas lights= winning! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! See snow and Christmas lights= winning! No offense mate, but do you ever post non-banter posts in wx threads? Have pics of moderators and/or grandfathered in the system to be able to post banter in non-banter? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Fishel: Yes I see the snow totals for Raleigh on various websites. It's like a horrific accident on an interstate highway. I say I don't want to look but I just can't help myself. Open to ideas as to how we get rid of the boundary layer warmth. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 NAM coming in hot! ( in a good way) probably gonna look like last nights epic run, we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: NAM coming in hot! ( in a good way) probably gonna look like last nights epic run, we'll see An Early look, it looka like Heights are further south than 12z... good in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 NAM is coming in a bit lower with the dewpoints across NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 When was the last time flakes flew in early December ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: When was the last time flakes flew in early December ? The last significant snow before, say, mid month here would have been back in 2002. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: When was the last time flakes flew in early December ? I remember a dusting in 2010 in my neck of the woods. Wife just pulled up a video on Facebook she posted of us playing with my parent's dog in the snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I think it's going to be a good run through 57. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: When was the last time flakes flew in early December ? I got a dusting November 1st, 2014. Paris Mountain had around three inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I think it's going to be a good run through 57. The 850s a little warmish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: When was the last time flakes flew in early December ? Had some light snow in central NC Dec 4, 2010 WRAL Slideshow... http://www.wral.com/weather/image_gallery/8726144/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: The 850s a little warmish? Yep, a little warmer for 850s and surface at 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 RAH Disco The next s/w projected to lift newd out of the l/w trough late Thursday, crossing our region by Fri morning. After the relative lull in precip Thursday, expect areas of precip to regenerate across our region, especially overnight Thu night into early Fri. Precip will initially start out as rain, but could see a transition to a rain/snow mix after midnight over the NW Piedmont as the column aloft continues to cool, and lift becomes stronger in the favored dendrite growth zone. Where heavier precip rates occur, could see a brief burst of snow, though warm ground temperatures will cause any snow that accumulates to quickly melt. Appears the rain/snow mix will remain confined primarily across the NW Piedmont through mid morning Friday, afterwhich the boundary layer may warm enough to cause the mixture to go back to all rain. As night approaches Friday, and the s/w begins to exit our region, another surge of low level cold air will overtake the region. This will lead to a rain/snow mix to overspread central NC Friday night, with the precip ending as a little light snow across the Piedmont. Precip rates at this time appear too light and the ground temperatures relatively too warm to support nothing more than a dusting, if that. Across the coastal plain, light rain may end as a rain/snow mix late Friday night. High temps Friday will only warm to near 40-lower 40s. It's possible some locations across the Piedmont may stay in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: Yep, a little warmer for 850s and surface at 57. Doesn't look like quite as moist either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 NAM is more positive tilt at the base of the trough this run...don't think it's going to be as strong with the precip back inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 At hour 63 it is warmer at RDU. What was a rain/snow look on the 12z at the same time, it's just rain on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: At hour 63 it is warmer at RDU. What was a rain/snow look on the 12z at the same time, it's just rain on the 18z. Not in the NAMs wheelhouse, we toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 By hour 69 it looks like a mix at RDU, but nothing significant to the west of the Triangle. Just a narrow strip of snow/rain from just east of Charlotte to RDU to Roanoke Rapids. **weaker storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looks like its getting going later, timing is very different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Looks like its getting going later, timing is very different I'd agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: I'd agree with that. Yea it shows more of a Saturday morning/day threat instead of Fri or Fri night... I would think some areas of NC would get some accumulating snow after hour 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 WOW! At hour 84! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 NAM looks atrocious. Less amped system with mostly rain. Wouldn't a less amped system equal more blue than green? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 At this rate, we won't have a clue till Friday morning. I've seen plenty of flip flopping with models before, but this is the worst. And for such an insignificant system. Oy. Something just doesn't look right with the NAM here. Two GL lows? The 500mb setup looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: WOW! At hour 84! Would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Looks like its getting going later, timing is very different 2 different waves?? I have to think the later in time we get, more cold should be available!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now