bargainmusic Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I have nothing to add to this conversation other than saying Hello! I was with you all back in January during the snow storm that dropped around 8 inches in my backyard in Winston-Salem. Hoping for another snow-filled winter! Let's start things off on the right foot this weekend! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: And CR's freezing rain: Lol no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: CMC is always the coldest model ! Classic class of the USRA screwzone thanks to lack of surface cooling...which it shows on th e 12z run as well......although i think it's out to lunch on that. Canadian is sort of by itself with the degree of warmth/higher dewpoints in the lowest 50mb. Other models are showing there are no appreciable difference in airmass where i'm at and the upstate/west ga in the low levels ...so i would expect similar cooling here after onset as everywhere else. . So in a rare exception, i'm tossing that depiction of warmer surface temps here if there is that much precip. Still it is painful as hell seeing it and always a concern in such a setup. I'll be heading northwest if it actually becomes a problem. here is the 12z uk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol no way That's a concern, in my opinion, for RDU if they lose nucleation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol no way Just the messenger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: That's a concern, in my opinion, for RDU if they lose nucleation. I think it matters on how much initial cold air we can get in place before the storm. Right now it's not looking like much, but dew points will be in the teens right across the boarder into Virginia. If we can get some type of push of that air farther south this could become a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I've seen this time and time again. Climo says anywhere north and west of I85 have a chance to see flakes fly. South and east, well, you know the drill. Especially in December. I mean come on, it's a struggle even in mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I've seen this time and time again. Climo says anywhere north and west of I85 have a chance to see flakes fly. South and east, well, you know the drill. Especially in December. I mean come on, it's a struggle even in mid January. What did DG say on ch 4 at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: That's a concern, in my opinion, for RDU if they lose nucleation. If we had a supply of cold air being driven into the area, I'd be more concerned about it. IMO, there will be snow falling at my house at 32/33 or rain at 33/34. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I've seen this time and time again. Climo says anywhere north and west of I85 I-40 have a chance to see flakes fly. South and east, well, you know the drill. Especially in December. I mean come on, it's a struggle even in mid January. FYP. None of us should legitimately be expecting a snowstorm the first week in December outside the mountains and south of Virginia. What's kind of encouraging though is that we're here at the beginning of a decent pattern looking at a potential Miller A storm in the beginning of December. And just a week ago we were saying how dry the pattern may turn out to be. Now we've got a Miller A storm just a tad too warm for accumulations. Makes you think some time frame between this weekend and the middle of the month we may actually have a chance to score an advisory event in December! That's pretty remarkable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12z GEFS looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Then to hour 240... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What did DG say on ch 4 at noon Didn't catch it, but I'm sure he went with the old "mainly for the mountains of North Carolina" weather statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What did DG say on ch 4 at noon I saw him this morning, very early - he really didn't say anything - I think he quietly mentioned, "...there is a small chance for a rain/snow mix in the mountains..." Honestly, Dale Gilbert needs to retire - he is the ultimate snooze-fest. I'm waiting for an actual snow threat (during the work week!) and watch him utter the word "snow". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro is a little farther inland with precip....and a little warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro is a little farther inland with precip....and a little warmer The trend nobody wanted, is happening! Warmer sucks! But I need the rain, so I like warmer and more precip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Euro looks like a light snow event for the mtns and foothills..into far NE GA...storm is slow to depart...some snow mixed in east of there probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Question. Will the jet above the surface help with this storm in providing lift and moisture increase against the mountains of NC/VA to aid in the production of increased qpf against the blue ridge or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Looks good for the Triad/Foothills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Precip is still very light and temps marginal so maybe a car topper if lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I think it looks good for RDU. Mostly snow for the entire event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWxGuy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The NAM is coming in with a “Winter Lovers” extreme... I’ll feel more confident if the NAM doesn’t change and the GFS confirms... GSP is limiting 1 inch or more to the mountains right now... Hey I’m excited to be seeing this pattern like this with a mostly positive tilted trough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 tease tease tease 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I think it looks good for RDU. Mostly snow for the entire event. It's banging on the heavy rates scouring out the low level warmth. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Here's the types at hour 96: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The 12z Euro snow accumulations: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12z Euro with a good shift NW... Taken Verbatim, gives my location in Danville, VA 2-3", with Temps around 32/33 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: It's banging on the heavy rates scouring out the low level warmth. Tough forecast. If we learned anything from January this year, warm noses are not easy to "scour out". I'd be very skeptical of models showing heavy snow through dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: FYP. None of us should legitimately be expecting a snowstorm the first week in December outside the mountains and south of Virginia. What's kind of encouraging though is that we're here at the beginning of a decent pattern looking at a potential Miller A storm in the beginning of December. And just a week ago we were saying how dry the pattern may turn out to be. Now we've got a Miller A storm just a tad too warm for accumulations. Makes you think some time frame between this weekend and the middle of the month we may actually have a chance to score an advisory event in December! That's pretty remarkable. Well its a good thing this will be happening the 2nd week of December ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now