msuwx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Hey man, good to see you posting. What's your take on the situation? I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. I'm just excited we have something already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 more precip but warmer at 78. a cold rain for most in nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GFS out to 81...overall it's slightly more precip / slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Just now, msuwx said: Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad. So did the warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GFS look a little better! Brad, coming around to a few flurries now!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GFS at hour 78 is warmer. Just a little snow showing north of Greensboro into Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Any way to toggle text sounding on Pivotal? After the sounding comes up, there is a dropdown at the top center of the page for Hr - so you can change the forecast hour there. At top right, there's a dropdown for map where you can view the map and choose another location for the next sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS look a little better! Brad, coming around to a few flurries now!! Too late to the party..... Can't change it now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It's really the GFS vs every other model on temps. GFS is insistent on upper 30s to low 40s across NC while the CMC, NAM, and Euro all drop temps in the 32-35F range for most of the event. That's the biggest reason the GFS shows mostly a cold rain, the 850 level and soundings are cold enough for areas like Raleigh but the boundary layer is a bit warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 It looks like we are needing the cold to come over the mountains here in the upstate. That always takes longer than the models realize. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, msuwx said: Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad. yeah...the shift is pretty big compared to the 0z run....not there yet but it obviously trended in the right direction. 5 minutes ago, msuwx said: I think some areas could get a slushy dusting or so....... but it's threading the needle. I went into it in detail in my video today. I'm just excited we have something already. that's the truth. A dusting or something would be nice but i'd be happy with just seeing flakes....although it surely would make my craving for a big snow jump by several orders of magnitude lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 canadian doesn't look too bad.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The line is always through Wake County. Hilarious how that always happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, No snow for you said: It looks like we are needing the cold to come over the mountains here in the upstate. That always takes longer than the models realize. It never happens until the party is over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Early 12z UKMet looks similar to GFS & CMC...detailed maps later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 The 12z GFS has an intensifying screaming jet at 66 thru 84 at 250mb. Precip seems rather meager with such a jet enhancement... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: The 12z GFS has an intensifying screaming jet at 66 thru 84 at 250mb. Precip seems rather meager with such a jet enhancement... Webber has been preaching the same thing on other board. Says its very rare almost unheard of to get a jetstreak like GFS is depicting in our neck of the woods like 140-160. Thinks this favors an overperformer potential to the NW(should get way more precip) as oppossed to the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: The 12z GFS has an intensifying screaming jet at 66 thru 84 at 250mb. Precip seems rather meager with such a jet enhancement... I noticed that too. Upper level div is strong, but cross sections show no deep omega coupling with meager llvl forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The line is always through Wake County. Hilarious how that always happens. I've always wondered why that is. In my area, it's from the Albemarle Sound south. I know why that happens, but you're right, Wake County always has that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Webber has been preaching the same thing on other board. Says its very rare almost unheard of to get a jetstreak like GFS is depicting in our neck of the woods like 140-160. Thinks this favors an overperformer potential to the NW(should get way more precip) as oppossed to the latter. Saw that and I think that is pretty spot on. Also just saw WPC experimental day 4 outlining 10% chances with greater than .25" liquid equivalent frozen/snow highlighted from northern SC thru Central/Eastern NC on their Winter Weather graphics. The CMC/GFS differences at 250mb are very subtle with the jet streak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, isohume said: I noticed that too. Upper level div is strong, but cross sections show no deep omega coupling with meager llvl forcing. That explains it a bit...Always missing one or more ingredients to bake a masterpiece . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, griteater said: Early 12z UKMet looks similar to GFS & CMC...detailed maps later CMC is definitely better for MBY. It has colder surface temps, with even some ice showing up over CRs location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Here's a better map from Pivotal Weather: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: CMC is definitely better for MBY. It has colder surface temps, with even some ice showing up over CRs location. CMC is always the coldest model ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Here's a better map from Pivotal Weather: I believe that is the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 I need the rain, I'm stoked!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, packfan98 said: I believe that is the 0z run. Your right. Here's the 12z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 And CR's freezing rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Queencitywx said: I think it probably snows most of the day on Friday but whatever moisture is left from Friday Night into Saturday has a good shot at sticking. That sounds reasonable from what I can see. Unless this thing slows down to come Friday night, we're looking at mood flakes in clt. I'm fine with that this early. And if it lasted all day, even if it doesn't stick, that would be pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now